Lightning Strike in Tennessee, August 19, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
320 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID WEST...WITH A VERY
MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS COVERING MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST. IN FACT...
MODEL SOUNDINGS REVEAL VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (AROUND 2
INCHES) LINGERING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
SOME CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES ON THURSDAY...AND WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY. A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT WITH SUCH A SATURATED AIR MASS IN PLACE...THINK
THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH A FEW TSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL BASICALLY TREND TOWARDS A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH COOLER MINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS DRIER
AIR SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY TO START THE FORECAST PERIOD THIS WEEKEND AS MODELS
REALLY WANT TO SLOW DOWN EASTERN U.S. LONG WAVE TROF WITH RATHER
SIGNIFICANT LOOKING SHORT WAVE ENERGY FILLING IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE MEAN UPPER TROF FOR SATURDAY WITH EVEN ANOTHER INDICATION OF A
TRAILING WAVE FOR SUNDAY. TRIED TO MAINTAIN A BIT OF CONTINUITY FOR
NOW AND BASICALLY STAYED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THIS
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WE MAY END UP ADDING AT LEAST A CHANCE POP FOR
SHOWERS HERE SOON AS THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT WEEKEND ACTIVITIES
THAT MAY BE IMPACTED IF RAIN DEVELOPS. GENERALLY STAYED WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IDEOLOGY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM WHICH
MAY PROVIDE FOR A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AS PRESSURE RISES A BIT
BEHIND THE DEPARTING EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROF. THE PATTERN
DETERIORATES LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THIS RATHER FAR OUT PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN   73  87  73  86  68 /  50  70  50  70  50
KNOXVILLE AIRPORT, TN     72  86  72  85  66 /  50  70  50  70  50
OAK RIDGE, TN             71  86  71  85  66 /  50  70  50  70  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN    67  84  67  83  65 /  50  70  50  70  50
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

DMG/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1015 AM EDT WED AUG 19 2009

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-201000-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
1015 AM EDT (915 AM CDT) WED AUG 19 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...DAMAGING WINDS...AND OCCASIONAL
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION...SOME STORMS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.