Wildfire in Oregon, July 6 to 12, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1025 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2009

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH NORTHEAST
OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON THIS EVENING HAVE DIMINISHED.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT UNION AND
WALLOWA COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
THESE STORMS WILL BE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...ALTHOUGH
SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

LATER TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION...WHICH
SHOULD PRIMARILY AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL OREGON...THE LOWER COLUMBIA
BASIN AND SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OREGON.  82

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE CASCADES MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL OF EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON TONIGHT.
PROBABILITY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE TS IN TAFS...BUT DO EXPECT
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR ALL TAF LOCATIONS. LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY
DRY SO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGH BASED...ABOVE 8-12 KFT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT...BECOMING 15-20 KTS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BRIEF GUSTS TO 35 KTS MAY BE POSSIBLE.  82

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2009/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER OCCURRING
WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IN PROGRESS AT THE TIME OF THE PRODUCT.
QUICKLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN CWA WAS COMBINING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLUE/WALLOWA AREAS
THAT SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT
THE AREA WAS OFF THE PACNW COAST THAT WILL MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THE MODELS WERE SHOWING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
TSRA THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER OR NEAR CENTRAL OREGON AFTER
00Z AND MIGRATE NNE INTO PORTIONS OF THE BASIN AFTER 06Z. THEN
TRAVEL INTO THE EASTERN CWA AFTER 12Z AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE ZONES TO
REFLECT THIS TIMING. COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
BREEZY WINDS TOMORROW. SIGNIFICANT COOLER AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL
OCCUR MONDAY. MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER OR NEAR
VANCOUVER ISLAND FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUING ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WEDNESDAY NIGHT AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO MANITOBA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY THE LOW WILL
SLOWLY RETROGRADE INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND FILL. A WEAK WAVE
WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW INTO EASTERN OREGON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS WAVE WILL TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES AND
NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS WHILE THE TROUGH WILL KEEP LOWER
TEMPERATURES OVER ALL OF EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON. FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER MONTANA WHILE
THE LOW OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO FILL. MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL END AND
TEMPERATURES INCREASE DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE. COONFIELD

FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GRASSLAND
AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
OREGON.  THIS INCLUDES THE COLUMBIA BASIN...EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE...THE WARM SPRINGS RESERVATION AREA...AND PRINEVILLE
DISTRICT.  ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN...THE COMBINATION
OF WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITIES ARE A CONCERN.  THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND STRIKES OVER
THE WARNING AREA FOR ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.  THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LIGHTNING IN OUR MOUNTAIN
ZONES...YET THE FUELS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ARE NOT QUITE AS DRY
AS THE GRASSY AREAS.  JOHNSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  62  80  54  78 /  30  30  10  20
ALW  65  83  56  80 /  30  30  10  20
PSC  64  86  57  83 /  30  30  10  10
YKM  61  80  53  79 /  30  30  10  10
HRI  62  84  54  81 /  30  20  10  10
ELN  62  79  53  75 /  30  30  10  10
RDM  49  77  42  74 /  20  20  10  20
LGD  58  78  49  74 /  30  30  10  20
GCD  54  78  46  74 /  20  20  10  20
DLS  62  76  54  75 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ORZ610-630.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ORZ609-631.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT MONDAY FOR WAZ609-631-675.

&&

THREAT INDEX
MONDAY : YELLOW
TUESDAY : GREEN
WEDNESDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

82/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
825 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2009

UPDATED TO REMOVE HEAT ADVISORY AND FIRE WEATHER WATCH

ORZ041>044-049-050-501>506-WAZ024-026>030-501-502-061415-
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF OREGON-NORTH CENTRAL OREGON-
CENTRAL OREGON-LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON-GRANDE RONDE VALLEY-
WALLOWA COUNTY-FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
NORTHERN WHEELER AND SOUTHERN GILLIAM COUNTIES-JOHN DAY BASIN-
OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS-
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF WASHINGTON-KITTITAS VALLEY-
YAKIMA VALLEY-LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON-
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON-
NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS-
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL CASCADES OF WASHINGTON-
EAST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES OF WASHINGTON-
825 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON
AS WELL AS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS
     EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL CASCADES OF WASHINGTON, EAST SLOPES
     OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES OF WASHINGTON, KITTITAS VALLEY,
     YAKIMA VALLEY, FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON,
     NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS, NORTH CENTRAL OREGON, CENTRAL
     OREGON, GRANDE RONDE VALLEY, WALLOWA COUNTY, FOOTHILLS OF THE
     BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON,
     SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, NORTHERN WHEELER AND
     SOUTHERN GILLIAM COUNTIES, JOHN DAY BASIN, OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
     HIGHLANDS

RED FLAG WARNING
     EAST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES OF WASHINGTON, EASTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF WASHINGTON, KITTITAS VALLEY, YAKIMA
     VALLEY, LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON, FOOTHILLS OF THE
     BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON, NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS,
     EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF OREGON, NORTH CENTRAL OREGON,
     CENTRAL OREGON, LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON, FOOTHILLS OF
     THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF
     OREGON, SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, NORTHERN WHEELER
     AND SOUTHERN GILLIAM COUNTIES, JOHN DAY BASIN, OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
     HIGHLANDS

     CONTACT YOUR LOCAL FOREST OR LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCY FOR
     CURRENT FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS IN YOUR AREA.

A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. DUE TO LIGHTNING IN COMBINATION WITH DRY FUELS IN
THE LOWER GRASSLAND AREAS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON...THE
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON...A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. FOR DETAILS...REFER TO THE NWS PRODUCT
PDXRFWPDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
     EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL CASCADES OF WASHINGTON, EAST SLOPES
     OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES OF WASHINGTON, KITTITAS VALLEY,
     YAKIMA VALLEY, FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON,
     NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS, NORTH CENTRAL OREGON, CENTRAL
     OREGON, GRANDE RONDE VALLEY, WALLOWA COUNTY, FOOTHILLS OF THE
     BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON,
     SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, NORTHERN WHEELER AND
     SOUTHERN GILLIAM COUNTIES, JOHN DAY BASIN, OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
     HIGHLANDS

RED FLAG WARNING MONDAY
     EAST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES OF WASHINGTON, EASTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF WASHINGTON, KITTITAS VALLEY, YAKIMA
     VALLEY, LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON, FOOTHILLS OF THE
     BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON, NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS,
     EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF OREGON, NORTH CENTRAL OREGON,
     CENTRAL OREGON, LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON, FOOTHILLS OF
     THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF
     OREGON, SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, NORTHERN WHEELER AND
     SOUTHERN GILLIAM COUNTIES, JOHN DAY BASIN, OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
     HIGHLANDS

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND IN NORTHEAST OREGON FOR THE REMAINDER
OF MONDAY.

WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. BREEZY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE...THE KITTITAS VALLEY
AND IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND
BEGINNING FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

GRAPHICAL FORECASTS OF WEATHER HAZARDS OUT TO SEVEN DAYS
ARE DISPLAYED ON THE WORLD WIDE WEB AT:

WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/PDT/CURRENTHAZARDS/HWO.HTML

ALL LETTERS IN THE ABOVE URL ARE LOWER CASE...EXCEPT THE H IN
CURRENTHAZARDS.