Flash Flooding and Hail in Oklahoma, September 21, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1241 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CAUSE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
AFTER 10Z AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2009/

DISCUSSION...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR COFFEYVILLE TO WESTERN PORTIONS
OF TULSA MOVING SOUTHEAST IS TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES FURTHER
TO THE WEST. ONGOING FORECAST WAS MAINLY TWEAKED TO WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES. STILL LOOKING AT STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS EVENING AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE LIKELY TO BE A CONCERN WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES COMMON AND
LOCALLY 3 OR 4 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

SEVERE THREAT IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT BUT SHOULD NOT BE IGNORED WITH
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS THE MORE LIKELY THREATS. SHEAR VALUES ARE
LOW BUT SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE A LOW TORNADO THREAT AS WELL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2009/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MUCH OF THE DAY.  A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT SHIFTIING THE WINDS AND BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.  IFR VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS.  MVFR CIGS
WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT AND THUNDERSTORMS.|

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
117 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-221000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
115 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

...CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...MAINLY NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...MID AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT AND INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE SUFFICIENT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS MAINLY IN NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. BY THE
TIME THE FRONT REACHES NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT...THE
INSTABILITY WILL BE DECREASING AND THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL DECREASE AS WELL.

ONE TO TWO INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE COMMON AND
LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 3 OR 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WHICH WOULD RAISE
THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING.

WHILE THE RISK OF TORNADOES WILL REMAIN LOW,..THEY ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT IS PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION IS EXPECTED
TO CUT OFF AND LINGER OVER THE PLAINS NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF
OKLAHOMA BUT WILL CAUSE OCCASIONAL CHANCES  OF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1158 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

OKZ055-056-211745-
NOWATA OK-WASHINGTON OK-
1158 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1245 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN NOWATA AND WASHINGTON

AT 1158 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4
MILES SOUTHEAST OF COPAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...WANN AND COPAN.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3699 9552 3680 9586 3689 9593 3700 9583
      3700 9552
TIME...MOT...LOC 1658Z 227DEG 17KT 3687 9586