A thunderstorm complex producing locally heavy amounts of rain moved across southeastern Kansas and extreme northeastern Oklahoma on the 8th. This rainfall combined with already saturated soils due to heavy rainfall in late April through early May to result in excessive runoff, which caused a moderate flood along the Neosho River near Commerce.
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The episode as NWS TSA wrote it up.
A thunderstorm complex producing locally heavy amounts of rain moved across southeastern Kansas and extreme northeastern Oklahoma on the 8th. This rainfall combined with already saturated soils due to heavy rainfall in late April through early May to result in excessive runoff, which caused a moderate flood along the Neosho River near Commerce.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 9, 3:16 AM CST, 5 hours 14 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 416 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2009 .DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT IS MOVING STEADILY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ON THE WAY OUT BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL BE RATHER BRIEF AS THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH. EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING WILL THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TODAY. NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT RAIN CHANCES IN THE NORTH TODAY WTIH DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WORKING SOUTH INTO THAT AREA BUT MOST MODELS DO SHOW SOME DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE DAY IS OVER. THUS WILL KEEP POPS GOING FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT STORM COMPLEX NORTH OF THE FRONT TONIGHT ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE NOT SO ROBUST WITH THE QPF SIGNAL. WILL STICK NEAR THE GUIDANCE POPS FOR NOW AS THE SITUATION IS ANYTHING BUT CLEAR CUT. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS OUR AREA LOOK TO BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER DECENT SHOT AT RAINFALL WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS FINALLY SOME HOPE THAT THIS FRONT MAY PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DRY THINGS OUT AROUND HERE FOR A FEW DAYS STARTING LATE IN THE WEEK. WENT A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES AND POPS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 72 54 67 53 / 30 40 60 50 FSM 69 55 67 54 / 50 60 70 50 MLC 68 55 66 54 / 50 60 60 50 BVO 71 50 65 49 / 10 20 60 40 FYV 67 51 65 49 / 40 60 70 40 BYV 67 50 64 48 / 40 50 60 30 MKO 70 54 66 53 / 40 50 70 50 MIO 69 50 66 49 / 10 20 60 30 F10 70 54 66 53 / 40 50 60 50 HHW 68 57 68 56 / 50 60 60 50 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. && SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....05 PLATE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 530 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2009 ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-101000- ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK- CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK- LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK- OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK- PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK- WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR- 507 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2009 ...POTENTIAL FOR STORMS FAR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT... THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. TORNADO. RISK...NONE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. RISK...LIMITED. AREA...FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ONSET...AFTER MIDNIGHT. FLASH FLOOD. RISK...LIMITED. AREA...FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ONSET...AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY RAIN. RISK...LIMITED. AREA...FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ONSET...AFTER MIDNIGHT. DISCUSSION... ALTHOUGH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...THOSE STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. MORE SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE FORECAST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER NEAR A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME OF THOSE STORMS MAY EXPAND ACROSS THE RED RIVER INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT PUTTING PUSHMATAHA AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES AT RISK. SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... OUR WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE FOCUS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE THE STALLED FRONT JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. A SHARP COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ENHANCE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL INFORMATION.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The Neosho River near Commerce rose above its flood stage of 15 feet at 930 am CDT on the 9th. The river crested at 18.66 feet at 2 pm CDT on the 12th, resulting in moderate flooding. The river fell below flood stage at 1245 pm CDT on the 13th.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oklahoma in 2009Every state in 2009This day in weather historyWarnings in Oklahoma, May 2009
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 168874.