Lightning Strike in North Carolina, April 24, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
922 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONVECTION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE MTNS INTO THE NRN FOOTHILLS AND NW
PIEDMONT. LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THE CONVECTION WILL BRUSH THE SRN
PIEDMONT AS WELL. HAVE UPDATED POP FOR THESE TRENDS. STILL EXPECT
CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. UPDATED SKY AND HRLY TEMPS/DEW
POINTS...BUT KEPT LOWS AS IS.

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
SATURDAY...SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DEW POINTS WILL
INCREASE IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THE
TRIGGERING MECHANISMS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE RATHER LIMITED...
ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT AND IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...THIS WILL BE A QUIET PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE
HOLDS SWAY OVER THE REGION. MODEL TIME SECTIONS/SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH
DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE RIDGE ALOFT ABOVE 900MB SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY ELIMINATE ANY CAPE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
AREA. THEREFORE....EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. EVEN
WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION...MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES MARGINALLY DECREASING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHICH WILL PROBABLY
TEMPER MAX TEMPS SOMEWHAT...THOUGH I SUSPECT NOT AS MUCH AS MOS
GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING. STILL EXPECT THAT MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE
MID 80S BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS WITH GENERALLY
70S MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY USED A MOS BLEND FOR MIN TEMPS AND FOR MAX
TEMPS 2-3 DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHAT MOS SUGGEST. GENERALLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL PREVAIL.

SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT DEWPOINTS COULD END UP LOWER THAN
ANTICIPATED BY GUIDANCE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS IF MIXED
LAYER ENDS UP DEEPER THAN CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST. MODEL
SOUNDINGS DEPICT A LOW LEVEL SUBSDIDENCE INVERSION IN THE 850-900MB
LAYER. IF ANY OF THE DRY AIR ABOVE THAT LEVEL MIXES DOWN...RHS
MAY LOWER BY 10% INTO THE 20-25% RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW
DEWPOINT FORECAST REFLECTS A MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE SE WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN BEGINNING ON TUESDAY. THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT THROUGH THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WITH AT BEST QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. AS WEAK
IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE FLATTENED RIDGE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ATTEMPTS TO SAG SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE FA FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. BEING
A WEAKLY FORCED...QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY...EXPECT THE FRONT TO
MERELY SERVE AS A VERY SLIGHT CATALYST FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FA FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

AS THE RIDGE AND UPPER AC WEAKEN...HEIGHTS DO FALL A BIT RESULTING
IN A SLIGHT COOLING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK...BEFORE SOME WARMING AS
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
REGARDLESS...TEMPS WILL STILL BE 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MTNS AND NRN FOOTHILLS
WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. BEFORE THEN...
A CELL COULD MOVE ACROSS KAVL...BUT WILL LEAVE ONLY CB IN ATTM. WILL
KEEP CB AT KHKY AS WELL WITH STORMS JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER THERE...BUT CHANCES
ARE LOW. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THRU THE EVENING...ALONG
WITH CIRRUS AND MID CLOUDS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS PICK UP AROUND
10 KTS BY NOON SATURDAY. MOST PLACES WILL SEE LITTLE CLOUD...BUT CU
MOST LIKELY AT KAVL AND KHKY.

AT KCLT...CLOUDS DISSIPATE AND WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING. SOUTH
WIND NEAR 10 KTS PICKS UP AROUND NOON SATURDAY. WILL BE A LITTLE
DEBRIS CLOUD AROUND FROM MTN CONVECTION SAT AFTERNOON...BUT BULK
WILL BE TO THE NORTH.

OUTLOOK...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY...MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. EARLY MORNING
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING...MAINLY NEAR KAVL.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BSH
NEAR TERM...JAT/RWH
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAT/RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1153 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2009

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-260400-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1153 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DRIFT EAST OVER THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS DURING
EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PENNY SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
738 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0643 PM     HAIL             5 W BURNSVILLE          35.92N 82.39W
04/24/2009  E0.75 INCH       YANCEY             NC   PUBLIC

            PENNY HAIL REPORTED AT RESIDENCE.

&&

JPT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
739 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2009

NCZ035-502-250045-
ALEXANDER-GREATER CALDWELL-
739 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ALEXANDER AND EASTERN CALDWELL
COUNTIES THROUGH 845 PM EDT...

AT 738 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BOOMER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO KINGS
  CREEK...TAYLORSVILLE...STONY POINT...MILLERSVILLE...HIDDENITE AND
  ELLENDALE.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

ARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
806 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2009

NCZ056-501-502-504-250100-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-CATAWBA-GREATER BURKE-GREATER CALDWELL-
806 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN BURKE...NORTHERN CATAWBA
AND SOUTHERN CALDWELL COUNTIES THROUGH 900 PM EDT...

AT 804 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES EAST OF GAMEWELL...OR 4 MILES SOUTH OF
LENOIR...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RUTHERFORD
  COLLEGE...LAKE RHODHISS...ST. STEPHENS...SAWMILLS...RHODHISS...

LONGVIEW...LENOIR...ICARD...HUDSON...HILDEBRAN...HICKORY...GRANITE
FALLS...GAMEWELL...AND CONNELLY SPRINGS.

BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

ARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
905 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2009

NCZ035-056-069-502-250200-
ALEXANDER-CATAWBA-GREATER CALDWELL-LINCOLN-
905 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CATAWBA...EASTERN LINCOLN...
SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL AND SOUTHWESTERN ALEXANDER COUNTIES THROUGH
1000 PM EDT...

AT 901 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NEWTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
TERRELL...ST. STEPHENS...RHODHISS...NEWTON...MAIDEN...
LOWESVILLE...LONGVIEW...LINCOLNTON...HICKORY...  GRANITE
FALLS...DENVER...CONOVER...CLAREMONT...CATAWBA...BOGER CITY   AND
BETHLEHEM.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

ARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
928 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2009

NCZ036-037-057-250230-
DAVIE-IREDELL-ROWAN-
928 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT DAVIE...NORTHEASTERN IREDELL AND
ROWAN COUNTIES THROUGH 1030 PM EDT...

AT 927 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HARMONY...OR 9 MILES WEST OF
MOCKSVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WOODLEAF...
  UNION GROVE...TURNERSBURG...SPENCER...SHEFFIELD...SALISBURY...
  ROCKWELL...MOUNT ULLA...MOCKSVILLE...LANDIS...HARMONY...GRANITE
  QUARRY...FAITH...CRAVEN...COOLEEMEE...CLEVELAND AND CHINA GROVE.

BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40
MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

ARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1024 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2009

NCZ037-057-072-250330-
CABARRUS-DAVIE-ROWAN-
1024 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN CABARRUS...ROWAN
AND SOUTHWESTERN DAVIE COUNTIES THROUGH 1130 PM EDT...

AT 1023 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES EAST OF CLEVELAND...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST
OF SALISBURY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO HIGH ROCK
  LAKE...WOODLEAF...SPENCER...SALISBURY...ROCKWELL...MOUNT ULLA...
  MOUNT PLEASANT...LANDIS...GRANITE QUARRY...GOLD HILL...FAITH...
  ENOCHVILLE...CRAVEN...COOLEEMEE...CLEVELAND AND CHINA GROVE.

BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

ARK