An upper ridge axis was located over the southern plains, putting southern New Mexico under a deep, moist southerly flow.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EPZ wrote it up.
An upper ridge axis was located over the southern plains, putting southern New Mexico under a deep, moist southerly flow.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS El Paso, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 23, 2:15 PM MST, 15 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM 315 PM MDT SUN AUG 23 2009 .SYNOPSIS... DEEP MOISTURE LIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. DAYTIME HEATING AND AN UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRING OFF ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SLOW STORM MOTION AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE. NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY SO CONTINUED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. FOR MID AND LATE WEEK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. STORM COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH BUT WITH MODERATE MOISTURE TRAPPED ACROSS THE REGION SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LATE DAY STORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY. && .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT HAS DROPPED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO OUR EAST WHILE A PACIFIC TROUGH BEGINS TO PRESS IN FROM THE WEST. WE SIT IN DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES. THIS DEEP FLOW IS MOIST WITH TAPS OFF BOTH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. 12Z EPZ PWS WERE NEAR 1.4. DEEPER MOISTURE IS WEST WITH LESSER MOISTURE EAST. PRIMARY DYNAMICS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY HAVE BEEN OROGRAPHIC UPGLIDE AND SURFACE HEATING. MODELS SHOW AN ADDITIONAL UPPER-LEVEL INGREDIENT TONIGHT AS A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA HAVE BEEN STABLE THUS FAR DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUDS LAST NIGHT...BUT EXPECT THAT AREA TO DESTABILIZE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. DUE TO DEEPEST MOISTURE AND EXPECTED UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMIC SUPPORT HIGHER POPS ARE WEST ZONES WITH LESSER POPS TO THE EAST. NOT A LOT OF PATTERN CHANGE MONDAY. SO A SIMULAR PCPN PATTERN IS FORECAST. TUESDAY THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO RE-ORIENT E-W ACROSS WEST TX/SOUTHERN NM AS THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO LIFT AND TRACK EAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL BEGIN TO PINCH THE DEEP MOISTURE TAP FROM THE SOUTH AND PROVIDE A BIT OF ADDITIONAL STABILITY TO THE SE ZONES. THUS WILL MIGRATE THE BETTER POPS TO THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR TUESDAY. WEDNEDAY IS THE START OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT AS THE UPPER HIGH SLIDES OVER THE CWFA AS IT REPOSITIONS OVER AZ TO END THE WEEK. THE PATTERN THIS DAY WILL BE BEST DESCRIBED BY THE DIRTY RIDGE TERMINOLOGY AS MODERATE MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED OVER THE REGION. SOME ADDITIONAL STABILITY ALOFT AND A LACK OF IMPULSES SHOULD SQUELCH MUCH OF THE CONVECTION KEEPING STORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. FOR THURSDAY ONWARD...THE UPPER HIGH IS WELL CENTERED TO OUR WEST. THIS PLACES US UNDER A NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW AND ALLOWS LOWER LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME EASTERLY. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN LOW AND MID- LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE EAST ZONES. IN ADDITION WAVES AND MCS MAY FORM AND TRACK INTO THE REGION GIVING WAY TO INCREASED STORM CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN ZONES FOR THIS PERIOD. 14 - BIRD && .AVIATION...VALID..24/0000Z-25/0000Z... GNRLY VFR CONDS THRU THE PD W BRF MVFR IN TSRA. UPR LVL HIGH CNTRD EAST OF RGN WL ALLOW ISOLD TO SCTD TSRA AND LOCAL +TSRA W GUSTS TO 40KT OVER AREA MAINLY W OF RIO GRANDE 24/00-24/08 W ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA PERSISTING WEST OF A DMN-SVC LINE 24/08-24/12. SCTD TSRA AND ISOLD +TSRA XPCTD W OF RIO GRANDE LINE 24/18-25/00 WITH ISOLD -TSRA ELSEWHERE. 02 - MACBLAIN && .FIRE WEATHER... A MOIST MIDLEVEL FLOW BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE REGION AND AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL ALLOW DEEP MOISTURE INTO AREAS FROM THE RIO GRANDE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE. RAINFALL MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY OVER THE GILA REGION...BOOTHEEL... AND ADJACENT LOWLANDS WITH ISOLATED ONE TO TWO INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A PATTERN SHIFT WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS WEST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST NORTH OF THE HIGH. STORMS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...BY LATER THURSDAY THE HIGH WILL MOVE FAR WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL EXPOSE AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND/OR BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS THAT MOVE SOUTHWEST ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH. THESE COULD BRING MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINS TO THE EAST INTO THE WEEKEND. HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN THE GILA REGION AND SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY BREEZY EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS WHERE STRONGER WINDS CAN OCCUR. 02 - MACBLAIN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... EL PASO 70 93 69 92 68 / 20 20 20 20 20 SIERRA BLANCA TX 67 94 66 92 67 / 10 10 10 10 10 LAS CRUCES 68 92 65 91 65 / 30 20 20 20 20 ALAMOGORDO 65 92 64 91 63 / 20 20 20 10 20 CLOUDCROFT 46 71 46 70 46 / 30 30 20 30 20 TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 65 90 63 90 62 / 40 30 30 30 20 SILVER CITY 55 83 56 84 55 / 50 50 40 40 20 DEMING 65 92 64 91 62 / 40 30 30 30 20 LORDSBURG 67 86 65 91 63 / 60 40 40 40 20 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && 14/02
The Holloman AFB radar (KHDX), 34 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:30 UTC.
3 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The Mescalero Fire Department reported water and mud covering IR-10 at the west end of a large burn scar. Bulldozers were dispatched to clear the road.
The Poverty Creek Fire Chief reported that State Highway 59 was flooded in Poverty Creek.
Thunderstorms training over far northwestern Sierra County resulted in rainfall amounts of more than 5 inches. The Sierra County Emergency Manager reported a wall of water 12 feet high moved through the Poverty Creek area. One family was evacuated and an unoccupied trailer was washed away.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2009Every state in 2009This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, August 2009
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 195461, 195462, 195467.