Hail in Nebraska, May 24, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
240 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
    AT 18Z...HAND ANALYSIS OF THE SURFACE DATA SHOWED A POOL OF
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S OVER ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. WITH THE SURFACE WIND FIELDS...A FAIRLY OBSCURE BOUNDARY
COULD BE SEEN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND EXTREME NORTHERN
MISSOURI. A MORE PROMINENT BOUNDARY WAS INDICATED ON THE EASTERN
PLAINS OF MONTANA...WYOMING...COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO WITH LOWS
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND EASTERN CENTRAL COLORADO. THE
PSEUDO-TROPICAL LOW THAT FORMED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO HAD MADE ITS
WAY TO THE ARKANSAS-MISSISSIPPI LINE AND HAD BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...6.7 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWED THAT
THE GULF CYCLONE WAS MATURING AND HAD BEGUN INGESTING DRY AIR. IN
OTHER AREAS...THERE WERE A COUPLE OF DEVELOPING UPPER VORTICES OVER
WESTERN IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. THE RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CELLS OVER THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS OF NEBRASKA
AND SCATTERED CELLS OVER WESTERN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES FROM ABOUT DOUGLAS WYOMING TO
RATON NEW MEXICO.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
    WITH THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND THE
LEE-SIDE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING IN WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE WEST.
    ALL THE FORECAST SIMULATIONS AGREE ON THE TRACK OF THE PSEUDO-
TROPICAL LOW. THEY BRING IT NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR THE ARKANSAS-
OKLAHOMA BORDER MIDDAY MONDAY AND THEN NORTHWARD ALONG THE MISSOURI-
KANSAS BORDER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THEN TURNING IT NORTHEAST
TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH THAT TRACK...IT APPEARS THAT
ITS EFFECT ON CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BE MINIMAL.
NEVERTHELESS...A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN
PLAINS OF COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO AND WILL THEN BRING MOISTURE FROM
THE TEXAS GULF COAST TO THE HIGH PLAINS OF WYOMING...NEBRASKA AND
COLORADO. THE MOISTURE WILL THEN BE IN PLACE FOR THE PASSAGE OF A
FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER
STREAMLINES SHOW CONVERGENCE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE MONDAY MORNING...SO THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
AS EARLY AS MID-MORNING IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS. THEY SHOULD THEN SPREAD TO VALENTINE AND NORTH PLATTE BY
MID-AFTERNOON AND OVER THE REST OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA BY 06Z TUESDAY. AS THE FRONT PUSHES ON THROUGH NEBRASKA AND
MOST OF KANSAS TUESDAY MORNING...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
END FROM THE WEST.
    REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...THE THETA-E RIDGE
BUILDING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO
1500-2000J/KG OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY 15Z...BUT THE
HIGH VALUES SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS. THEREFORE...THE
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL. THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE MIGHT BE
FAVORABLE TO CREATE SOME SPIN WITH THE UPDRAFTS. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE EVALUATED AGAIN TOMORROW.

.MEDIUM AND LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
    THE GLOBAL AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THEIR HANDLING OF
THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY. BY FRIDAY...
THOUGH...THE EUROPEAN BEGINS GENERATING SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. SINCE BOTH THE GLOBAL AND EUROPEAN
SHOW A SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS APPROPRIATE FOR
MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY. OUT AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIODS...THE GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS A FRONT COMING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE EUROPEAN KEEPS IS HUNG UP ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. WITH THAT LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY...WE WILL KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY BELOW 15 PERCENT.
&&

.AVIATION...
    TEMPERATURES HAVE HIT THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. CEILINGS ARE MVFR THAT WILL BE VARYING
WITH MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS ARE QUESTIONABLE DEPENDING ON THE MODEL OF
CHOICE AND WILL LEAVE LOW COVERAGE IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING
FOLLOWING THE NAM SOLUTION. OVERNIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER TO DEEPEN WITH
CEILINGS TO DROP TO MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID
MORNING MONDAY.
&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT/MEDIUM/LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...KECK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
305 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2009

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-251000-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
305 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2009 /205 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER
THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. A SLOW STORM MOVEMENT WILL MAKE HEAVY
RAINFALL LIKELY WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE MEMORIAL HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

KECK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
338 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0332 PM     HAIL             MULLEN                  42.04N 101.04W
05/24/2009  E0.88 INCH       HOOKER             NE   PUBLIC

&&

SJC