Hail in Nebraska, June 6, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
402 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2009

A COOL AND AT TIMES ACTIVE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS...

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW LOCATED IN SRN ALBERTA CANADA WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH
THROUGH WYOMING WITH SRN STREAM UPPER LOW LOCATED IN SRN NEVADA.
SOMEWHAT LESS MOISTURE WITH 18Z U/A SOUNDING WITH 0.69 INCH. SFC
FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR LNK NE WEST THROUGH HLC KS...THEN NW TO NEAR
SNY AND THEN WEST OF CDR. MOISTURE POOLING NORTH OF FRONT WITH
DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 60. ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WRN
PNHDL WITHIN DRIER AIRMASS AND WEAK DISTURBANCE.

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

TONIGHT...THROUGH EARLY EVENING A CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIMIT SFC
BASES STORMS TO AREAS WEST OF HWY 83. LATEST RUC13 INDICATES AS SFC
DWPTS REACH TO NEAR 60 ACROSS WCTRL AND SWRN NEBR...SBCAPES TO RANGE
FROM AROUND 2500 J/KG AND REMAIN SO TIL 03Z. 18Z NAM12 INDICATES A
RATHER VIGOROUS WAVE DISTURBANCE TO DEVELOP TSTMS IN NERN CO AROUND
21Z AND BLOSSOM ACROSS WCTRL AND SWRN NEBR THROUGH THE
EVENING...EVENTUALLY SPREADING INTO CNTRL NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT.
ANOTHER SCENARIO IS FOR A LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO
THE ERN PNHDL WITH STORMS TURNING ESE ACROSS WRN INTO CNTRL NEBR
OVERNIGHT. LOOKING AT ABOUT A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS. 0-6KM
SHEAR 50-60 KTS FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS. A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR
STORMS FOR ALL COUNTIES SOUTH OF HWYS 2 AND 91.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY FROM NEAR 55 NCTRL
TO NEAR 60 SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH FRONT WILL SAG FURTHER SOUTH INTO
KS...ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE FOR BROAD ASCENT WITH SCT
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING. MUCH
SHOULD END AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEVERE RISK LOOKS UNLIKELY.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY BEHIND COLD
FRONT. COOLER AIR BUT A RETURN TO SUNSHINE WILL SEE HIGHS REACHING
MID 60S NCTRL TO NEAR 70 SOUTHWEST. FCST IS DRY ALSO FOR MONDAY. A
FAIRLY STRONG DISTURBANCE IN FAST WESTERLIES ALOFT WILL BRING
ANOTHER GOOD CHC FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY NIGHT WITH ABOUT A 30
PERCENT CHC.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC LOW PRESSURE FROM TX PNHDL INTO ERN CO
WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTH INTO NEBR WITH FAVORABLE CHCS FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH PERIOD. HIGHS CONTINUED COOL IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
PERSISTENT FAST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUSTAINED WITH
PERSISTENT TROUGH SWRN U.S. AND H5 LOBES ROTATING COUNTERCLOCKWISE
FROM HUDSON BAY LOW. THIS PERSISTENT COOL PATTERN ALSO AGREED UPON
BY GFS AND ECMWF. HIGHS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED AND
THU AND STILL ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IF ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS TONIGHT AND BEYOND SET
UP...THERE WILL BE RUNOFF CONCERNS ESPECIALLY SRN HALF OF FA AND
ALSO SRN HOLT COUNTY...WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES WAS ESTIMATE TO HAVE
FALLEN BY RADAR.

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS WILL BE A CHALLENGE INTO THE EVENING AS THE STRATUS ERODES
TO THE EAST THEN RETURNS OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTH TO INCLUDE
THE KVTN TERMINAL AND REDEVELOPING INTO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.
CEILINGS WILL DROP THEN INTO LIFR FOR THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD.
SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THAT MAY RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA BUT COULD LIFT INTO IFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS BEYOND 18Z. THE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL LEAD TO THE REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING THAT
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR STORMS AT BOTH TERMINALS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...KECK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
333 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2009

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-071000-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
333 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2009 /233 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 FROM
ANTIOCH IN SHERIDAN COUNTY TO DUNNING IN BLAINE COUNTY...THEN EAST
TO BARTLETT IN WHEELER COUNTY. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST ALTHOUGH THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SUNDAY THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SHIFTING SOUTH AND
EAST THAT COULD REDUCE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE EVENTUAL
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT DAILY WILL DETERMINE SEVERE POTENTIAL
THROUGH MONDAY. OTHERWISE...GENERAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CAN
BE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN AREAS EAST OF THE PANHANDLE
AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 FROM ANTIOCH TO DUNNING...THEN EAST TO THE
BARTLETT AREA UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

KECK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
502 PM CDT SAT JUN 06 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0501 PM     HAIL             6 SW ASHBY              41.97N 102.02W
06/06/2009  E0.88 INCH       GRANT              NE   PUBLIC

&&

TKECK