Flooding in Minnesota, June 17 to 18, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
341 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2009

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STUBBORN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...AND A BAND OF ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES IN
SE ND AND IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST NEAR THE LOW. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE FLOW...BUT DETAILS ARE HARD TO
RESOLVE WITH THIS PATTERN.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT THE UPPER LOW TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE IS AMPLE MOISTURE WITH PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES...AND
HEAVY RAIN SOUNDINGS FOR ALL AREAS. WILL TRY TO PINPOINT THE VORT
AND HIT POPS HARDEST HERE AND CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. WILL MENTION
HEAVY RAIN IN ALL AREAS. IN THE SOUTH...DEEP LAYERED SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE SOME SEVERE
WEATHER (MAINLY LARGE HAIL) WITH CAPES OVER 1000 J/KG AND LI/S TO
-6C. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS AREA. IN ADDITION...GIVEN THE
UPPER LOW AND ANY SUNSHINE THAT WE GET...CAN/T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED LANDSPOUT TYPE TORNADO/FUNNEL CLOUDS ALONG ANY BOUNDARY
WITH VERY LOW LCL HEIGHTS NEAR ANY SUNNY BREAKS. HAVE MENTIONED
SEVERE IN THE GRIDS FOR THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS MAY BE
HELD DOWN ONCE AGAIN FROM PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND CONVECTION...WITH
THE WARMEST READINGS IN THE FAR SW.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRI...EXPECT THE CONTINUATION OF CONVECTION
NEARLY AT ANYTIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD THUNDER WED NIGHT MAY CLIP THE FAR SOUTH...AND THE
MAJORITY MAY OCCUR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA NEAR THE SFC LOW AND
STRONGER UPPER SUPPORT. MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THU
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI AS THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH.

FOR SAT...EXPECT RIDGING AND A DRY/WARM DAY WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED.

FOR SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF SW FLOW ALOFT
AND APPROACH THE SW BY AFTERNOON. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME THUNDER
CHANCES HERE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE HAVE ISSUED AN AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN
RANSOM/SARGENT/WILKIN/RICHLAND COUNTIES WHERE RADAR ESTIMATES OF
2-5 INCHES HAS FALLEN...AND A FLASH FLOOD WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR AN AREA FROM NEAR ABERCROMBIE TO BARNESVILLE. HAVE
MENTIONED HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST TODAY AND TRAINING ECHOES
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED WITH THE CONTINUED SLOW STORM MOTION. WILL
MENTION THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE HWO THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR/IFR RANGE AT ALL
SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE BY LATE WED
AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY. THUNDER WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

DK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
535 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2009

MNZ003-017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ039-049-052-053-181045-
CLAY-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-
EAST BECKER-WILKIN-WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-
CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-
535 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. RIVER
RISES ARE LIKELY ON THE WILD RICE NEAR ABERCROMBIE AND ON THE RED
UPSTREAM OF FARGO FROM RECENT HEAVY RAIN. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN
MAY AGGRAVATE FLOODING CONCERNS HERE. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LARGE HAIL THE
MAIN THREAT. THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THIS
AFTERNOON IF SUNSHINE CAN BREAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE...WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MNZ001-002-004>009-013>016-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-054-
181045-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-WEST MARSHALL-
EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-EAST POLK-
NORTH CLEARWATER-TOWNER-CAVALIER-PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-
EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-
BARNES-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
535 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN NEAR STRONGER
STORMS. THIS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN POORLY DRAINED AND
URBAN AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

DK