Flash Flooding and Flooding in Kansas, September 8, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1147 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2009

.UPDATE...
INCREASING CONCERN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT FROM SLOW
MOVING CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
ALTHOUGH THE LOCATION AND AMOUNTS MAY BE OFF A BIT...IT APPEARS
THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE GFS ARE ON TO SOMETHING BY SHOWING AN
IMPRESSIVE QPF BULLSEYE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT. HAVE
THEREFORE UPPED POPS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA AND ALSO
MENTIONED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AFFECT PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND FORCING
WILL RESIDE. AN AREA OF IFR STRATUS CIGS/MVFR VSBYS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
AROUND DAWN TUESDAY...WHICH COULD IMPACT THE KRSL TAF SITE AGAIN.
ONLY PATCHY MVFR FOG VSBYS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS/KCNU TAF SITE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE CONVECTION COULD
LINGER ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPAND A BIT FURTHER EAST INTO THE
DAY ON TUESDAY...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AWAY FROM ANY CONVECTION.

KED

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2009/

AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THRU MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA WHERE MODEST
INSTABILITY AND WEAK FORCING WILL RESIDE. AN AREA OF IFR STRATUS
CIGS/MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AROUND DAWN TUESDAY...WHICH COULD IMPACT THE KRSL
TAF SITE AGAIN. ONLY PATCHY MVFR FOG VSBYS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS/KCNU TAF SITE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AWAY
FROM ANY CONVECTION.

KED

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2009/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS CHANCES FOR T-STORMS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH A QUASI-SUMMER LIKE PATTERN THRU FRIDAY.

TONIGHT-THURSDAY:
WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER SWRN KS THIS PM PER WV IMAGERY WILL TRANSLATE
VERY SLOWLY EWD TONIGHT. A WEAK CONFLUENCE ZONE EXISTS FROM SWRN KS
INTO NWRN OK WITH 2500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE AND DECREASING CINH ALONG/E
OF THIS ZONE. THESE FACTORS SHOULD LEAD TO WIDELY
SCATTERED-SCATTERED T-STORMS THIS PM/EVE ACROSS SWRN/SCNTRL KS/NWRN
OK. A FEW STRONG PULSERS POSSIBLE BUT SHEAR IS VERY WEAK. OTHER
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY GET GOING LATE TONIGHT IN CNTRL SECTIONS
WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/MID-LEVEL MOISTENING OCCURRING. SOME OF
THAT ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO TUES AM BEFORE DISSIPATING. NEARLY
SIMILAR SCENARIO MAY REPEAT ITSELF AGAIN LATE TUES PM/EVE WITH A
WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE PROGGED FROM SWRN KS INTO NWRN OK...MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND MINIMAL CINH. ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THIS
ZONE BUT WILL KEEP POP MENTION OUT ATTM SINCE WE WILL BE MINUS THE
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE. A 35KT SWRLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPMENT MAY AID IN
PRODUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT TOWARD CNTRL KS TUES NIGHT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SO RETAINING 20-25% POPS THERE.

AN UPPER TROF AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO ONTARIO
WED-THURS. THE MODELS HAVE THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAKING IT SEWD
INTO CNTRL KS WED WHERE IT TENDS TO WASH OUT THURS. WEAK
CONVERGENCE/DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO WIDELY SCATTERED T-STORMS
NEAR THE FRONT WED...WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE ISOLATED/SPARSE
THURS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY-MONDAY:
NEXT UPPER TROF ORIGINATING OVER THE NERN PACIFIC IS PROGGED BY
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TO CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THIS PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE REASONABLY
SIMILAR IN THE OVERALL SCENARIO. THE ECMWF WAS A LITTLE SLOWER TO
NUDGE THE UPPER LOW EWD LATE IN THE PERIOD AND WAS PREFERRED GIVEN
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO
MOVE THRU OUR AREA LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT A CHANCE OF
T-STORMS ALONG THIS FRONT ALTHOUGH SHEAR ON THE WEAK SIDE. TEMPS
SHOULD FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SAT-SUN...BEFORE MODERATION
OCCURS MONDAY GIVEN RETURN FLOW COMMENCING. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE RETURN PARTICULARLY IN CNTRL KS SUN-MON WHICH
COULD EVENTUALLY WARRANT SOME LOW POPS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  87  67  85 /  40  20  10  30
HUTCHINSON      65  87  66  85 /  50  10  10  30
NEWTON          64  86  65  85 /  20  10  10  30
ELDORADO        64  86  65  85 /  20  20  10  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  87  66  88 /  30  20  10  30
RUSSELL         65  88  66  84 /  40  10  20  30
GREAT BEND      64  88  66  85 /  50  10  20  30
SALINA          66  87  67  85 /  20  10  10  30
MCPHERSON       65  87  66  85 /  30  10  10  30
COFFEYVILLE     64  86  66  88 /  10  20  10  20
CHANUTE         61  85  65  86 /  10  10  10  20
IOLA            61  84  65  85 /  10  10  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    61  85  66  87 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1111 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2009

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-090415-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
1111 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF A
RUSSELL TO HUTCHINSON TO WELLINGTON LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY WEST OF A LINCOLN TO
LYONS LINE. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE.

THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES
OCCURRING WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

KED/JMC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
318 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2009

KSZ069-080845-
BUTLER-
318 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2009

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR BUTLER COUNTY...

AT 317 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR AUGUSTA...OR 11 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF EL DORADO...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LISTEN FOR
LATER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE FLOODING WARNINGS...SHOULD THE RISK FOR
MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING BECOME MORE IMMINENT.

KETCHAM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
319 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2009

KSZ083-080845-
SEDGWICK-
319 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2009

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR SEDGWICK COUNTY...

AT 319 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR
COLWICH...OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF DOWNTOWN WICHITA...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LISTEN FOR
LATER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE FLOODING WARNINGS...SHOULD THE RISK FOR
MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING BECOME MORE IMMINENT.

KETCHAM