Hail in Kansas, April 9, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
349 PM CDT THU APR 9 2009

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MAINLY CENTERED AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF DODGE CITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AT 500 MB WAS INTENSIFYING AND CLOSING OFF AS
IT TRACKS EAST OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TODAY. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND HOURLY RUC ANALYSIS SHOWED THE MID LEVEL CENTER NORTH
OF GAGE OK AT 20Z. THIS SYSTEM SHOWED SOME NEGATIVE TILT
CHARACTERISTICS WITH THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE DDC CWA AND POINTS
FARTHER EAST UNDER THE BEST MID LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

AT THE SURFACE AN OCCLUDED FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE
KS/OK BORDER SOUTH OF DDC. A DECENT MOIST TONGUE HAS BEEN WRAPPING
UP AROUND THE NORTH OF THE SFC LOW INTO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH LOW 50S TDS INTO ICT THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL BE A NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON BUT
BY 00Z THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF BARBER
COUNTY. THE RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS RETURNS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND EXPECT TO SEE
AREAS OF RAIN CONTINUING TO DEVELOP. THE NAM/GFS SHOW 850
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND 0C THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY ANY
SNOW IS CONFINED TO WESTERN NEBRASKA BUT AS WE COOL INTO THE
EVENING HOURS EXPECT TO SEE THE RAIN MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW
OVER MY NORTH/NORTHEAST COUNTIES THIS EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION AS THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE COMING TO
AN END BY 06Z.

HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE A WIND ADVISORY OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
THE CWA THROUGH 06Z AND LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE FARTHER WEST AT
02Z. HIGH END ADVISORY WINDS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES ALL AFTERNOON AND THIS AREA OF STRONGER WINDS WILL WORK
EAST THIS EVENING PER THE NAM MODEL.

QUIETER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS UVV INCREASES OVER SOUTHWEST
KANSAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

DAYS 3-7...

FCST CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED QUITE A BIT TODAY WITH RESPECT TO THE
WEEKEND SYSTEM AND FOLLOWING ONE.

THE ECMWF HAS FINALLY COME AROUND TO THE CANADIAN SOLUTION OF A DEEPER
UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY. AFTER SOME DOUBT
YESTERDAY, WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT IN A RAINY COOL DAY ON SUNDAY
FOR MOST OF THE FCST AREA--NOT JUST THE FAR EAST. POPS WERE RAISED
CONSIDERABLY FROM DDC EAST. THERE SEEMS LITTLE DOUBT THAT A SOAKING
RAIN WILL OCCUR IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AND POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST
AS DDC. AFTER A RATHER MILD START SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S,
RAIN AND UPSLOPE WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO NEAR STEADY TEMPS. RAIN WILL
PROBABLY LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY EAST OF DDC. SOME
CLEARING IS LIKELY BY MONDAY. DESPITE 850MB TEMPS CLOSE TO 0C,
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY STAY TOO WARM FOR SNOW.

THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO GO BACK TO A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION
FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM THU-SAT. THIS COULD MEAN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
RAIN WITH SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES. THE ECMWF/CANADIAN SHOW
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A STRONG MOISTURE
SURGE UP THE HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...

NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35KTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KTS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A DEEP SFC LOW
MOVES TO THE EAST OF OUR TAF SITES. STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO EXPANDING LOW CLOUD COVER WITH CIGS FROM
2000-3000FT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR BY 08Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  32  59  36  60 /  30   0  10  30
GCK  30  57  35  58 /  20   0  10  30
EHA  30  60  34  58 /   0   0  10  20
LBL  31  60  35  59 /  10   0  10  30
HYS  34  56  35  59 /  50   0  10  20
P28  37  59  37  63 /  30   0  10  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ045-046-064>066-
078>081-088>090.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ043-
044-061>063-074>077-084>087.

&&

FN02/24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
724 AM CDT THU APR 9 2009

KSZ080-081-089-090-101015-
KIOWA-PRATT-COMANCHE-BARBER-
724 AM CDT THU APR 9 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. THERE
IS A THREAT FOR HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND A FEW
BRIEF...WEAK TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED AFTER 3 PM SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
EXTENDING FROM ST JOHN TO GREENSBURG TO NEAR COLDWATER.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

KSZ030-031-045-046-065-066-079-101015-
TREGO-ELLIS-NESS-RUSH-PAWNEE-STAFFORD-EDWARDS-
724 AM CDT THU APR 9 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. THERE
IS A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

KSZ043-044-061>064-074>078-084>088-101015-
SCOTT-LANE-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-
GRAY-FORD-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-
724 AM CDT THU APR 9 2009 /624 AM MDT THU APR 9 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. THERE
IS A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC