Drought in Hawaii, June 1 to 30, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST SUN MAY 31 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE RIDGE NEAR THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE
WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY. SEA BREEZES WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHILE LAND BREEZES WILL BRING CLEARING
SKIES AT NIGHT. AS THE RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY NORTH AND GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENS BY MID-WEEK...THE TRADE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD
OVER THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN. THE ANTICIPATED RETURN OF THE TRADES
WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS...MAINLY TO WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS OF THE
ALOHA STATE...BUT RAINFALL WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE ISLANDS AND THE BUOYS NORTH
OF THE STATE...THE EAST NORTHEAST TO WEST SOUTHWEST ORIENTED SURFACE
RIDGE IS LOCATED ABOUT 190 MILES NORTH OF HONOLULU. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE IS ALREADY PRODUCING TRADE WINDS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BIG ISLAND. WINDS REMAIN LIGHTER AND MORE FROM AN
EAST SOUTHEAST DIRECTION NEAR THE SMALLER ISLANDS...WHICH ARE CLOSER
TO THE RIDGE.

THE AFTERNOON ATMOSPHERIC SOUNDINGS FROM KAUAI AND THE BIG ISLAND...
AS WELL AS LOOPS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...ALSO INDICATE THE
ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER STABLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE AT DUSK THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT...SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HARDLY
ANY SHOWERS OVER THE INDIVIDUAL ISLANDS. THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE
ISLANDS ALSO APPEARS TO BE DECREASING SINCE THE LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS THAT OCCURRED EARLIER TODAY CEASED A FEW HOURS AGO. IN
ADDITION...LOCAL LAND BREEZES ARE LIKELY BEGINNING TO SET UP OVER
SOME SECTIONS OF THE STATE...WHICH SHOULD BE A HINDRANCE TO
MAINTAINING THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER OVER MOST ISLANDS. RADARS ARE
SHOWING ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...MAINLY
NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY.

THE PREVAILING WINDS AROUND THE ISLANDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN SIMILAR TO
TODAY. EXPECT SOME LOCAL CLOUDS OVER THE INTERIOR AND MAUKA SECTIONS
OF MOST ISLANDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING. THEN...AS THE ISLANDS
HEAT UP...MORE SIGNIFICANT CLOUD BUILD UPS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON. MOST SHOWERS OVER LAND WILL DISSIPATE
AROUND DUSK AND CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE EACH EVENING. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN RATHER STABLE...SO EXPECT LITTLE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER MOST AREAS OF THE STATE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN ALOFT OVER THE
ISLANDS WILL CHANGE NOTICEABLY BEGINNING MID-WEEK WITH AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT NEAR AND JUST NORTHEAST OF HAWAII.
AS A RESULT...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT THE SURFACE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE STATE AS IT GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS. THE
STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE TRADE
WINDS TO STRENGTHEN AS THEY SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN.
THE TRADES WILL REMAIN STRONGEST IN THE VICINITY OF THE BIG ISLAND
BY THURSDAY...WITH WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY WEAKER NEAR KAUAI. EXPECT
THE TRADES TO BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE ISLANDS. AS USUAL...
THESE SHOWERS WILL TEND TO FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS OF THE
STATE. HOWEVER...WITH STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS DUE TO THE
SIGNIFICANT RIDGING ALOFT...NO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES SLOWLY NORTH AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS...
TRADE WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO MORE NORMAL VALUES ACROSS
THE HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS AND CHANNELS. AS A RESULT...WINDS IN THE
TYPICALLY WINDIER MARINE ZONES ADJACENT TO THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI
WILL RETURN TO MODERATE TO NEAR FRESH SPEEDS. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THE WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OVER ALL MARINE ZONES...AT LEAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

A NEW LONG PERIOD SWELL ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE ON
TUESDAY MAY PRODUCE SURF HEIGHTS NEAR THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY
THRESHOLD OF 8 FEET ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH FACING SHORES OF ALL
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE...THE
CURRENT NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SMALL SURF
ALONG NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORES THROUGH MONDAY. AN OUT OF SEASON
NORTHWEST SWELL ARRIVING LATE TUESDAY WILL PRODUCE A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN SURF HEIGHTS ALONG MOST NORTH AND SOME WEST FACING
SHORES OF THE SMALLER HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FROM KAUAI AND NIIHAU TO MAUI
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HOUSTON