Name: Heat in Florida, June 21 to 22, 2009
Start: 2009-06-21T12:00
End: 2009-06-22T17:00
Location: Florida

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 10 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 10

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS MFL wrote it up.

Strong surface west winds ahead of a rare late June cold front over north Florida along with strong high pressure aloft led to record heat over southeast Florida.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Miami, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 21, 7:40 AM EST, 4 hours 20 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 21, 7:40 AM EST, 4 hours 20 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
840 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2009

UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVER S FLA TODAY WITH MAX THICKNESS LEADING
TO INCREASED TEMPS. A MITIGATING FACTOR MAY BE THE COPIOUS CIRRUS
MOVING OVER S FLA CURTAILING THE SUNSHINE/HEATING FACTOR. BUT SEEING
THAT THE E COAST SEA BREEZE MAY BE LIMITED TO THE EXTREME E COAST
DUE TO THE PREVAILING WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...THREATENED MAX TEMP
RECORDS E STILL IN PLAY. MORNING ROABS AND PROG SOUNDINGS INDICATE
NNE STEERING WINDS FAVORING INTERIOR AND SW PORTIONS OF AREA THOUGH
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SPREAD THE WEALTH SO
TO SAY THOUGH NE AREAS MAY SEE LIMITED POPS. AT THIS TIME PLAN NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT ZFP PACKAGE.

.MARINE...PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 FT
OR LESS TO PREVAIL TODAY.

.PREVIOUS HEADLINES/DISCUSSION...

...HEAT INDEX READINGS AROUND 105 INTERIOR/EAST COAST METROPOLITAN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON, 100 TO 105 GULF
COAST...
...SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.DISCUSSION...SUMMER OFFICIALLY BEGAN AT 1:45 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...AND THERE WILL BE NO DOUBT ABOUT IT TODAY. TEMPS THE
PAST FEW DAYS ACROSS THE EAST COAST METROPOLITAN AREAS HAVE
REACHED SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
DEPICTING. IN FACT...YESTERDAY A RECORD HIGH OF 95 DEGREES WAS
TIED AT MIAMI. THIS WAS 5 DEGREES HOTTER THAN DEPICTED BY THE
GFS/NAM. THE HOT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTH
GA/NORTH FL WILL MOVE SW WITH AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BY
MONDAY AS AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.

AS THE RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE EVENING MIAMI SOUNDING SHOWED A
1000-850MB THICKNESS OF 1423 METERS...BUT GFS SHOWS THIS
INCREASING INTO THE 1435-1440 RANGE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH 850
MB TEMPS INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY TO AROUND +21C...UP FROM +17.8C
ON THE MIA SOUNDING SATURDAY EVENING. SO THE HEAT WILL BE ON...AND
BELIEVE THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...IS JUST UNDERPLAYING THE
TEMPS TOO MUCH...SO HAVE GONE MUCH ABOVE GUIDANCE DUE TO THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED. THERE IS SOME CIRRUS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT THIS LIKELY WILL BE THIN ENOUGH WITH ENOUGH BREAKS
TO REALLY HEAT THINGS UP. SO HAVE INCREASED MAX TEMPS EAST COAST
TODAY AND MONDAY...WELL ABOVE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. SOME
RECORDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY AND MONDAY:

RECORD HIGH          SUNDAY      MONDAY
WEST PALM BEACH    95 - 1998   95 - 1992
FT. LAUDERDALE     94 - 1956   96 - 1956
MIAMI   95 - 1981   94 - 1998

HEAT INDICES WILL REACH NEAR 105 THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTERIOR/EAST...BUT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER
70S. NOT QUITE OFFICIAL HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND REALLY THE
HEAT INDICES ARE ONLY ABOUT 5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN NORMAL. STILL
IT'S WORTH BRINGING ATTENTION TO...SO WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT (SPS) TO BOTH HIGHLIGHT THE HEAT AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

AN UNSEASONAL TROUGH...OR "BACKDOOR COLD FRONT"...IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO TSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND WITH VERY HIGH INSTABILITY IN
PLACE...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS. THERE PROBABLY WILL NOT BE AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
MONDAY...BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COULD BE THE
"TRIGGER". DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY RISK WITH STORMS
MONDAY. FOR NOW...ADDED GUSTY WINDS TO THE FORECAST
INTERIOR/ATLANTIC COAST WHERE THE RISK LOOKS TO BE GREATEST. SPC
STILL HAS 30% PROBS OF SEVERE WX THIS AREA FOR MONDAY.

THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK.
THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
RATHER HIGH INSTABILITY...SO STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE. INCREASED POPS TUE-WED. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE BACK NORTH
BY THE WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE COULD INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH...SO
IT COULD CONTINUE UNSETTLED MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH MID WEEK IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH FROM THE NORTH. SEAS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN 4 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  94  78  96  76 / 10 10 40 40
FORT LAUDERDALE  94  79  97  77 / 20 10 40 40
MIAMI            95  79  97  77 / 20 10 40 40
NAPLES           91  81  90  80 / 20 10 20 40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM...57/DG
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...04/AT

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 21, 4:30 AM EST, 7 hours 30 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2009

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-212300-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
530 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2009

...HEAT INDEX AROUND 105 OR HIGHER TODAY AND MONDAY MOST AREAS...
...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...
...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY WITH SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BIGGEST THREATS BEING A
HEAVY DOWNPOUR, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50MPH.

WIND: A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THESE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO
50MPH

TEMPERATURES: HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 90
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ELSEWHERE IN
SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES OF AROUND 100
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST TO NEAR 105 OR HIGHER ELSEWHERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
THE AREAS WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING 105 OR HIGHER. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY POSSIBLY PRODUCE HIGH WINDS,
LARGE HAIL, EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AS AN
UNSEASONABLE COLD FRONT MOVES IN.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAINFALL
BEING THE BIGGEST THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment