Tropical Storm in Florida, August 16 to 17, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
300 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
06Z WATER VAPOR AND H5 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
WRN CONUS/CANADA AND RIDGE OVER THE ERN STATES/SERN CANADA. AT THE
SURFACE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS AND A TROPICAL WAVE/INVERTED
TROUGH OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED ABOUT 80 MILES SW OF TAMPA...AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOMING A TROPICAL SYSTEM LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES
NWWD. THE IMPACTS OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RESULTING IN INCREASING WINDS...SEAS AND CONVECTION OVER
THE MARINE AND COASTAL COUNTIES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...THE 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE NEWD PROGRESSION OF THE WRN CONUS TROUGH AND FLATTENING OF THE
ERN CONUS RIDGE DURING THE PERIOD. THE FIRST 12-24 HOURS OF THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE ACTIVE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE/SURFACE LOW. PER THE 16/00Z LOCAL WRF MODEL...CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE GREATEST ON THE NE/E QUADRANTS OF THE
WAVE...SPREADING INLAND ACROSS THE FL BIG BEND/PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING...AND SE AL/SW GA IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE RAISED PREVIOUS
SHIFTS POPS FOR TODAY TO CATEGORICAL FOR AREAS W AND S OF A LINE
FROM ABY TO CTY...WITH GOOD CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY TO THE E. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THE SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IF ANY TRAINING OF CELLS CAN DEVELOP.
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY POTENTIAL TRAINING
BANDS REMAINS LOW AND THE SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED TODAY.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
AND RAINFALL. AS THE WAVE MOVES FURTHER NWWD TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...THE FOCUS FOR HIGHER POPS WILL ALSO SHIFT WEST OF THE
APALACHICOLA/CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVERS...WITH DRIER AIR AND LOWER POPS
MOVING IN FROM THE EAST. ON TUESDAY...RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
DOMINATE THE TRI-STATE REGION...RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPS (LOW-MID
90S) AND BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES (20 PERCENT POPS).

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. THEN A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN THE
ERN U.S. WITH ITS AXIS JUST TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY. THE TROUGH WILL
SWING OFF THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY WITH A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING IN
THE FROM WEST ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...TROPICAL STORM ANA IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK ACROSS HAITI AND
PORTIONS OF CUBA LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF THURSDAY. THIS IS WHERE THINGS MAY GET
INTERESTING. IF THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS AND BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE...
ANA WOULD LIKELY TURN ON A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK. IT IS WAY TOO EARLY
TO DETERMINE IF THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR
CWA BUT THE ECMWF DOES SHOW IT TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF
FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS NE FL/SE GA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL SHOW POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AND KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS LOW FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION (THROUGH 06Z MONDAY)...
AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE WILL IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS AS IT LIFTS NORTHWEST FROM THE GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A VERY WET DAY TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR
MOST TERMINALS. HAVE GONE WITH PREVAILING TSRA THIS MORNING FOR TLH
WITH PLENTY OF ACTIVITY EXPECTED. OVERALL CIGS SHOULD OSCILLATE BACK
AND FORTH FROM VFR TO MVFR.

&&

.MARINE (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN OVER THE WATERS AS THE
TROPICAL WAVE/SURFACE LOW TRACK NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF APALACHICOLA...WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. EXERCISE
CAUTION WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE WATERS WEST OF
APALACHICOLA. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST
SHOULD MONITOR THIS SYSTEM. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES FARTHER WEST AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS TROPICAL STORM ANA MAKES IT APPROACH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND RAIN
CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE   86  73  91  72  95 /  80  50  40  30  20
PANAMA CITY   85  75  89  76  92 /  80  60  60  30  20
DOTHAN        86  72  88  72  93 /  80  50  60  30  20
ALBANY        88  72  92  71  95 /  70  40  40  30  20
VALDOSTA      87  71  93  70  95 /  60  40  40  20  20
CROSS CITY    87  72  93  71  94 /  70  40  30  20  20
APALACHICOLA  84  75  88  75  90 /  80  50  50  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

LONG TERM...JAMSKI
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...LANIER
REST OF DISCUSSION...GODSEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
840 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2009

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-161015-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
801 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2009 /701 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO
SUNDAY. WINDS OVER THE EASTERN MARINE ZONES (MAINLY EAST OF
APALACHICOLA) ARE NOW EXPECTED TO REACH LOW END ADVISORY LEVELS FOR
A TIME LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT MAY REMAIN AT CAUTIONARY SPEEDS INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

WITH THE ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW AND ROUGHER SEAS NOW EXPECTED...THE
RIP CURRENT RISK HAS BEEN INCREASED TO A HIGH LEVEL ALONG THE
BEACHES OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND INCLUDING FRANKLIN COUNTY. FURTHER
WEST ALONG THE BEACHES OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IT IS A MORE COMPLEX
SITUATION...HOWEVER THE FLOW IS ANTICIPATED TO COME AROUND TO AN
ONSHORE DIRECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS KEEPING THE MODERATE RISK
IN PLACE.

RAINFALL ON SUNDAY WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON JUST HOW THIS DISTURBANCE
INTERACTS WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING. HOWEVER...CONVECTION THAT DOES
OCCUR IS LIKELY TO BE RATHER TROPICAL IN NATURE AND RESULT IN SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS. CONFIDENCE IN WHERE ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL
BANDS MAY DEVELOP IS LOW AT THIS TIME...AND WILL SIMPLY NEED TO BE
MONITORED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TAKE CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS LOWER AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE MAIN CONCERN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE A SCATTERING OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

HEADING INTO THE LAST PART OF THE WORK WEEK...WILL BE MONITORING
THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ANA. ANA IS CURRENTLY SPINNING
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IS STILL A LONG WAY FROM OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH ITS PROGRESS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

14-MROCZKA