Wildfire in Florida, April 22 to 30, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
904 PM EDT WED APR 22 2009

.UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY OVERHEAD OF SOUTH AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA THIS EVENING, AND THIS IS THE SAME FORECAST REASONING FROM
EARLIER... THEREFORE NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. /TINGLER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 PM EDT WED APR 22 2009/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
FEW-SCT CLDS AT MOST. FOR EAST TERMINALS, WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 6
KTS OR LESS AND BECOME MORE NORTHEAST AND THEN ESE AT 11 TO 13 KTS
ON THURSDAY. FOR KAPF, WNW NEAR 10 KTS ATTM WILL DECREASE TO LESS
THAN 4 KTS LATE EVENING, THEN BY MID TO LATE MORNING WINDS WILL
START OUT ESE THEN SWING TO SW AT 13 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM EDT WED APR 22 2009/

DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE PENINSULA
AND A DRY AIRMASS HAS ADVECTED INTO S FL OVER THE PAST 24 HRS.
THIS HAS PRODUCED A SUNNY DAY WITH WARM AFTERNOON TEMPS AFTER A
FAIRLY COOL START. A WEAK BOUNDARY HAS ALSO DRIFTED INTO CENTRAL
FL WITH EVEN DRIER AIR NORTH OF THE TROUGH, BUT FOREWORD PROGRESS
WITH THIS BOUNDARY HAS STOPPED. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF WILL CONTINUE EAST TONIGHT AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC THURSDAY, BUT TONIGHT WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD
AND A RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE A LAND BREEZE WITH
LIKELY FORM. FOR THIS REASON DECIDED TO GO A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW
GUIDANCE AS THE COOLER AIRMASS DRAINS. THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE SLIPS
INTO THE ATLANTIC THE FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY... SHALLOW AT
FIRST BUT DEEPENING INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE MOISTURE TO
INCREASE, BUT MAINLY NEAR THE SURFACE KEEPING RAIN CHANCES
VIRTUALLY NIL, AND CLOUD COVER LOW.

THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD... THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC, TO THE NE OF S FL, KEEPING
OUR AREA IN A GENERAL EAST FLOW. THIS MAY RESULT IN A FEW, MAINLY
NOCTURNAL SHRA MOVING INTO THE EAST COAST, AND VERY WARM
AFTERNOONS, MAINLY ALONG THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST.

AVIATION...VFR UNDER CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL. NW WINDS ALONG THE
EAST COAST WILL BECOME NE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. TFLL RADAR ALREADY
SHOWING THE SEA BREEZE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP...SO WIND FCST LOOKS ON
TRACK...JUST DELAYED THE SWITCH TO NE BY AN HR/19Z. KAPF ALREADY HAS
THE SEA BREEZE. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT/VAR WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A LAND BREEZE DEVELOPING AS DEPICTED BY THE WRF. /DG

MARINE...WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE NE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS... OUTSIDE OF SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE... AND THIS CONTINUES TO KEEP GULF STREAM SEAS ELEVATED
TO AROUND 7 FEET. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE EASTERLY THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW SEAS TO DECREASE SOME TO
AORUND 6 FT OR LESS BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
MAY TIGHTEN SOMEWHAT BY FRIDAY ALLOWING THE EASTERLY WINDS TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY, BUT AS WINDS REMAIN EAST, SEA HEIGHTS MAY
REAMIN AT 4 TO 6 FT OR LESS IN THE GULF STREAM... HOWEVER THE EAST
COAST RIP CURRENT RISK MAY INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND.

FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20 TO MID 30S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON, AND A RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST
OF THE AREA THROUGH 7 PM EDT FOR A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
RHS WILL AGAIN PLUMMET THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT SLIGHTLY MORE
MOISTURE WILL HAVE PUSHED INTO S FL. THIS MAY LIMIT THE DURATION
OF SUB 35% RH IN THE WEST SECTIONS OF EAST COAST COUNTIES TO
AROUND 3 HRS, BUT INLAND COLLIER, GLADES, AND HENDRY COUNTIES WILL
SEE AROUND 4 OR MORE HRS OF SUB 35% RH. THE SEA BREEZE ALONG THE
WEST COAST SHOULD KEEP THE DURATION OF SUB 35% RH SHORT AS WELL.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO FRIDAY, HOWEVER 4 OR MORE
HOURS OF SUB 35% RH MAY BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN FOR PORTIONS OF
COLLIER, GLADES, AND HENDRY COUNTIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  64  83  66  84 / 0 0 0 -
FORT LAUDERDALE  66  84  69  84 / 0 0 0 -
MIAMI            67  84  69  84 / 0 0 0 -
NAPLES           61  85  62  89 / 0 0 0 -

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR FLZ063-
     FLZ066-FLZ070.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR FLZ063-FLZ066.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM...04/AT
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...18/GR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
830 PM EDT WED APR 22 2009

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-231030-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
830 PM EDT WED APR 22 2009

...INCREASING RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THIS
WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.