Rip Current in Florida, April 13, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
241 PM EDT MON APR 13 2009

.DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURES ALOFT AND SURFACE MOVING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST ATTM WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS IS CAUSING A BATCH OF VERY NASTY WEATHER OVER NORTH
FLORIDA ATTM. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA BY END OF
DAY TUESDAY PUSHING THE PREFRONTAL WEATHER INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA BY END OF DAY. FRONT
CROSSES THROUGH THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK (SLIGHTLY LESS THAN NORMAL) AND A VERY SLOW RECOVERY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NOT MUCH PROSPECT FOR WEATHER THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AFTER THE WEDNESDAY FRONT.

FCSTD SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH CAPE AND INSTABILITY WITH THIS FRONT
BUT LIKE PREVIOUS FRONTS, THE ENERGY IS TOO FAR NORTH. AM HOLDING
ON TO 20 AND 30 PERCENT POPS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND
ONLY 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. DID INCLUDE
THUNDER WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED INSTABILITY TUESDAY NORTH
SECTIONS AND ENTIRE CWA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHEAST WINDS AT SCEC LEVELS TONIGHT WITH BECOME SOUTH
AND INCREASE TO POSSIBLY SCA CRITERIA TUESDAY. WINDS BECOME
LIGHTER OUT OF THE WEST WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND THEN
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND THEN NORTH THURSDAY
AND NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE OF SPEED WITH SEAS
CLIMBING AGAIN. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, A SWELL WILL MOVE
SOUTH FROM THE SLOW MOVING LOW IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND WILL
PUSH THE SEAS TO 11 FEET NORTH GULFSTREAM BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED FOR FIRE WEATHER ATTM.
PERCENTAGES WILL BE DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S NEXT FEW AFTNS
AND THEN POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 30S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  88  68  84 / 10 30 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  88  70  86 / -  20 20 20
MIAMI            74  89  71  86 / -  20 20 20
NAPLES           69  84  71  82 / 10 30 20 20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM...18/GR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...04/AT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
439 AM EDT MON APR 13 2009

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-132345-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
439 AM EDT MON APR 13 2009

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: A SOUTHEAST WIND OF 15 TO 20 MPH ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
BEACHES OF PALM BEACH, BROWARD, AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY INTO THE
15 TO 25 MPH RANGE. WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS AT
THE COLLIER COUNTY BEACHES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND RESULTING IN ROUGH SEAS OVER
THE GULF STREAM WATERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO
AN INCREASING RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.