NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 20, 3:37 PM EST, 26 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 20, 3:37 PM EST, 26 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
437 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THIS EVENING AND
THEN STALL ABOUT 300 MILES OFF THE COAST INTO MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THERE IS VERY STRONG INSTABILITY OVER THE DELMARVA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THERE ALSO IS CONSIDERABLE HELICITY. SWEAT INDICES
IN THE AREA ARE PROGGED AT AROUND 400. THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS IN
THE PROCESS OF CUTTING OFF, AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NY STATE/PA BORDER ROUGHLY
PARALLEL TO THE WARM FRONT, WHICH RAN DOWN INTO THE DELMARVA.
HENCE THE TORNADO WATCH FOR THE DELMARVA, DELAWARE BAY AND COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH ON CAPE MAY. THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WILL MAKE SOME
EASTWARD INTRUSION ABOVE THE STABLE AIR AT THE SURFACE THIS
EVENING, ALTHOUGH THE STABLE LAYER SHOULD PROTECT AREAS EAST OF
THE WATCH FROM ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND OR HAIL.
THE STACKING SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS
EVENING, AND WITH IT WILL GO INSTABILITY SOUTHWEST AND THE BEST
FORCING AS WINDS DEVELOP A NORTHERLY COMPONENT. THERE MAY WELL BE
SOME WRAP-AROUND RAIN IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATER TONIGHT, WITH THAT BEING LESS LIKELY AS ONE MOVES
SOUTHWEST. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT, BUT FOR THOSE AREAS THAT START IN THE COOL SECTOR THE
SOUNDINGS WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS STABLE /ALTHOUGH BY NO MEANS
UNSTABLE/, AND THE NET EFFECT SHOULD NOT BE THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT DROP TOO MUCH TONIGHT. GUIDANCE THEREFORE WAS ACCEPTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE STACKED LOW APPEARS TO STALL ABOUT 300 MILES OR SO EAST OF THE
NEW JERSEY COASTLINE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS MAY BE FAR
ENOUGH OUT TO AVOID A LOT OF RAIN, ESPECIALLY WEST, BUT WE SHOULD
BE FAIRLY BREEZY, ESPECIALLY EAST, WITH A LOT OF CLOUDINESS. THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKED CONSISTENT WITH MUCH OF THIS, AND WE
MAINTAINED A GOOD DEAL OF CONTINUITY ON POPS AND CLOUDS. WE
BOOSTED THE WINDS A LITTLE. ON TEMPERATURES, WE HAVE CUT
GUIDANCE MAXES A BIT WEST AND A BIT MORE EAST AND WE HAVE ACCEPTED
GUIDANCE MINS.
OUR CONCERNS REGARDING THE COASTAL EFFECTS DUE TO THE LOW ARE
ADDRESSED IN THE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING SECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE CANNOT SEEM TO BREAK OUT OF THE ANOMALOUS PATTERN THAT WE HAVE
BEEN IN FOR ABOUT TWO WEEKS NOW, AND THAT APPLIES TO THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. HPC ULTIMATELY HAS MATCHED THE 00Z ECMWF FAIRLY CLOSELY,
BUT AS WE MOVE OUT IN TIME THE DETAILS BEAR LESS SPECIFICITY.
IT SHOWS THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RETROGRADING
SLIGHTLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN FILLING AND LIFTING AWAY
BEGINNING THURSDAY. THIS RESULTS IN A STALLED AND ONLY GRADUALLY
WEAKENING SURFACE LOW CENTERED APPROXIMATELY 300 MILES OFF THE
COAST, WHICH ACCORDING TO THE MODEL AND HPC IS TOO CLOSE TO DROP ANY
CHANCE OF RAIN FROM THE FORECAST /AT LEAST FOR EASTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA/ THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT ALSO MAY BE PROBLEMATIC FOR
COASTAL SECTIONS WITH REGARD TO TIDES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM.
AN EPHEMERAL MID LEVEL RIDGE MAY BUILD OVER US ON THURSDAY, AND
PERHAPS THAT WOULD CARVE OUT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AND WARM
DAY. THEN YET ANOTHER MID LEVEL IMPULSE MAY DROP TOWARD US AND
SHARPEN OUR GOOD FRIEND THE EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN MEAN TROUGH FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. THERE IS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT,
WHICH WOULD SPELL MORE RAIN AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION.
THIS TIME, THE MID LEVEL CUTOFF IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER NOVA
SCOTIA, AND IF THAT PROVES CORRECT AND IF NO OTHER IMPULSES ROTATE
AROUND IT, WE MIGHT AT LEAST FIND OURSELVES REMOVED FROM ANY
RAINFALL LATE IN THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
A WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY IS ATTACHED TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, WHICH
WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND EVEN
SOME THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD EASTWARD. THE CEILINGS HAVE BEEN AS LOW AS
LIFR AT A FEW TERMINALS AND AT LEAST SOME IFR CEILINGS REMAIN AS THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. AS
ALWAYS THE CASE, THERE WILL BE TIMES OF GREATLY REDUCED
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY DURING SHOWERS/THUNDER. WE UTILIZED SOME VCSH
DESCRIPTORS AND EVEN SOME TEMPO GROUPS, HOWEVER AMENDMENTS WILL BE
ISSUED BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS TO GIVE A BETTER TIMING OF
HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS. THE SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND THIS SHIFT WILL GO TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH
TIME, THEN EVEN TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THERE IS A STRONG WIND FIELD ABOVE THE SURFACE, WHICH IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN SOME THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN THIS, BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THIS EVENING,
ESPECIALLY FROM THE KPHL AREA ON SOUTHWARD. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO SLIDE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT BUT THEN EITHER STALL OFF
THE COAST OR JUST MEANDER AROUND. THIS WILL CREATE A TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT, RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS. WE
INCREASED THE SUSTAINED WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT, HOWEVER HELD OFF ON
GUSTS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER IT WILL MIX
DOWN DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. A NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. AS THE STORM SYSTEM
SPINS AROUND TO OUR EAST, AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS LOOK TO ROTATE
AROUND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THESE WILL PROBABLY BRING SOME
MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH THEM AT TIMES.
OUTLOOK...
THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM TO OUR EAST LOOKS TO MEANDER AROUND
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A GUSTY AT
TIMES NORTHERLY WIND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS. THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO FINALLY MOVE AWAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, HOWEVER A
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO LURK TO OUR NORTHWEST THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS. SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS MAY IMPACT OUR
SOUTHERN WATERS INTO THIS EVENING. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST WITH TIME TONIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM IS THEN
FORECAST TO GET TRAPPED TO OUR EAST AND STRENGTHEN AS A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL STORM DEVELOPS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY
WHERE THE SURFACE LOW EITHER MEANDERS OR STALLS. EITHER WAY, A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS
SUNDAY ON THE OCEAN, ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE IS MORE ROBUST WITH THIS
IDEA THAN OTHERS. SINCE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE PROXIMITY
OF THE SURFACE LOW TO THE COAST, WHICH WILL GOVERN THE STRENGTH OF
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, WE HELD OFF ON A GALE WATCH/WARNING FOR NOW
AND WENT MORE TOWARD A STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
THE STARTING TIME OF 10Z SUNDAY STILL LOOKS GOOD AS THE BULK OF THE
GUSTINESS /ADVISORY LEVELS/ SHOULD TAKE PLACE STARTING ABOUT
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WE DID HOWEVER ADD THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY TO THE
ADVISORY STARTING AT 10Z SUNDAY BUT ENDED IT AT 22Z SUNDAY FOR NOW
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY BE A BIT WEAKER MORE INLAND. THIS CAN
ALWAYS BE EXTENDED IF NEED BE. AS THE STORM MEANDERS AROUND TO OUR
EAST, A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL. THIS FLOW COMBINED WITH THE
LOWER PRESSURES WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD. OUR CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY
HIGH REGARDING ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET, THEREFORE WE EXTENDED
THE ADVISORY ON THE OCEAN THROUGH 22Z MONDAY BUT LEFT THE LOWER
DELAWARE BAY AT 10Z MONDAY. THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
SLIDE AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST LATE TUESDAY OR DURING WEDNESDAY,
ALTHOUGH THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE CLOSED LOW ABOVE IT. A WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE THEN TRIES TO BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY.
THIS STORM SYSTEM MEANDERING TO OUR EAST WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN
ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THIS EVENING, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BE GUSTY AT TIMES, AND WILL CAUSE TIDAL
DEPARTURES TO INCREASE. WITH THE NEW MOON OCCURRING MONDAY, HIGH
TIDES WILL BE UNUSUALLY HIGH TO BEGIN WITH. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING MAY
OCCUR WITH THE HIGHER OF THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES BEGINNING LATER
SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALES THAT NEAR MODERATE LEVELS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WE PONDERED A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH BUT GIVEN SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE GREATEST PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP, WE
OPTED TO GO WITH NO HEADLINES ATTM. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR, BUT
FOR NOW MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
ANZ431.
&&
SYNOPSIS...DELISI
NEAR TERM...DELISI
SHORT TERM...DELISI
LONG TERM...DELISI/MEOLA
AVIATION...GORSE
MARINE...GORSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GORSE/