Rip Current and High Surf in Delaware, August 29 to 30, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
543 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY IS ABOUT 450 MILES DUE SOUTH OF THE
DELAWARE COAST AND MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. DANNY WILL
SPREAD RAINS NORTH BUT MOST WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW TO THE REGION
WITH THE GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOST AREAS. WELL START TO SEE
SOME DRYING OUT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS OVER THE LOUISIANA BAYOU THURSDAY EVENING IS
NOW OVER CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND IS FINALLY LIFTING OUT AND
PUSHING THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIR NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...THE LEADING
BAND OF MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY MOVED NORTH ALONG
THE NJ COAST AND IS NOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL COASTAL NJ AND
WEAKENING. HOWEVER...A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE EXTENDS SOUTH OF
THE NJ COAST ALL THE WAY TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE CENTER. AS THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST YOU CAN SEE THE
ENHANCED DEEP SATELLITE MOISTURE BEING NUDGED EAST OFFSHORE. THAT
IS A GOOD THING SINCE WE HAVE BEEN EXTREMELY SOGGY HERE THE PAST
WEEK AND HAVE LOWERED OUR FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS MORNING. ANY
ADDITIONAL SPOTTY HEAVY RAINS OVER THE SENSITIVE GROUNDS WILL BE
HANDLED WITH FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. WE STILL HAVE THE SHOWERS THAT
WILL MOVE IN WITH THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR TRAINING ECHOES. THE FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

NOT HOT TODAY BUT A LITTLE MUGGY AS AUGUST BEGINS TO WIND DOWN.

BY THIS EVENING...THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY SOME MODEL ACCOUNTS
IS 180 MILES DUE EAST OF AS BURY PARK NJ. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES BRINGS THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE COAST AND IS ALSO
ASSISTING WITH MOVING DANNY MORE RAPIDLY ALONG. THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT AND SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR SUNDAY.
REFRESHINGLY COOL TEMPERATURES UP NORTH TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
NICE COOL AIR 80H ADVECTION AND PRECIPITATION-FREE FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO AROUND 60
SOUTHERN ZONES. RECORDS IN THE POCONOS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THE UPPER CYCLONE IS EAST OF JAMES BAY WITH THE
FRONT LAGGING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE PLAINS STATES. THIS
WILL KEEP MOISTURE DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST BUT SOME LIGHT SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY TRY TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA BORDER
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT APPEARS THEY WEAKEN BEFORE REACH OUR NORTHERN CWA.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN THE LOWER LAKES REGION FOR MONDAY WITH
SOME WEAKNESS OVER ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY WHERE A WAVE TRIES TO
FORM MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER FLOW BRINGS THE MOISTURE
NORTHEAST TO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THE WAVE
SLIDES OFF THE COAST BEFORE REACHING TOO FAR NORTH INTO PA OR NEW
JERSEY. THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS TO THE COAST BY DAY BREAK TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER COMFORTABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WILL INTRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS TO OUR WEST AND WEAK VORT MAX IS OVER THE REGION. WAS
GOING TO MAKE SOME CHANGES FOR THE LATER PERIODS BUT PATTERN IS
STILL SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT PCPN IN THE OFFING WITH THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE NOT TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.

PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS GATHERING OVER THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF THE
ATLANTIC AND THE TROUGH SHARPENS UP DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
EITHER AN INVERTED TROUGH OR WEAK LOW FORMS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST AND IS CARRIED NORTH ALONG THE COAST WITH HEAVY RAINS BARELY
OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY BEFORE GETTING PUSHED FARTHER OUT BUTT THE
UPPER TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS OUR CWA ON FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE START OUT BELOW NORMAL AND
RISE TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

ACTUALLY HAD SOME DRY AIR MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SE DURING THE
NIGHT. CIGS AND VSBYS PICKED UP TO VFR FROM THE PHILLY METRO AREA
S AND E. THAT IS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF REMOISTENING AND BY DAYBREAK
MOST AREAS WILL BE IFR/LIFR IN THE PRECIPITATION AND/OR FOG. PLENTY
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST
WILL REMAIN OVER OUR EASTERN AREAS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE
BY MIDDAY AND SHOULD REACH VFR BY MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO PEAK THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN
BEGIN TO DIMINISH. CLOUDS MAY EVEN SCT OUT THIS EVENING FOR A WHILE,
BUT WITH ALL THE LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, SHOULD SEE VSBYS
DROP IN FOG LATER TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
AS DANNY MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, IT WILL HELP DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
TO OUR SOUTH ALLOWING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM COULD SPREAD SOME RAIN INTO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BRING A RETURN OF FAIR VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

LONG PERIOD SWELLS CONTINUE AT BUOY 44009 AND 44065 WITH 5 FOOT SEAS
AND A WAVE PERIOD OF 11 SECONDS. WAVES ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY ARE
AROUND 2 FEET.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CURRENTLY IN EFFECT ON OUR OCEAN WATERS HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED IN TIME INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY FOR SEAS. TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DANNY CAN STILL PRODUCE WAVES IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE FORECAST SEAS FOR THE 44009 BUOY WILL BE AROUND 7 OR 8 FEET WITH
THE PEAK WAVES OCCURRING THIS EVENING. WE EXPECT TO SEE BREAKERS ON
THE BEACH OF 4 TO 5 FEET WHICH WILL ESPECIALLY IMPACT THE INLETS
ALONG THE COAST. OTHERWISE THE DOMINANT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL
ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF 10-12 SECONDS.

ONCE THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT WILL SETTLE IN DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

AS ALWAYS...CHECK THE LATEST BULLETINS ON THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION FROM
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

A COLD FRONT IS FCST TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS
ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME ALMOST STATIONARY TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHWRS/TSTMS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD.

RIP CURRENTS...
THE RIP CURRENT RISK HAS BEEN ELEVATED FOR TODAY AS THE WAVES
CONTINUE TO BUILD ON THE COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE CANCELED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTH ALONG THE COAST AND BEING
NUDGED OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...WELL HAVE TO WATCH THE PRECIPITATION
COMING IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE FRONT. ANY HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS
WILL BE HANDLED WITH LOCALIZED WARNINGS.

HERE ARE THE RAINFALL/DEPARTURES SINCE JUNE 1 FOLLOWED BY SINCE
JAN 1...

STATION............JUNE/DEPT...............JAN/DEPT
MT.POCONO..........19.08/6.96..............31.50/-0.93
READING............16.92/5.28..............28.50/-1.43
ALLENTOWN..........17.36/5.19..............29.11/-0.83
TRENTON............22.04/10.58.............34.99/+6.72
WILMINGTON.........17.32/6.30..............30.33/+1.56
PHILADELPHIA.......16.76/5.65..............30.75/+2.19
ATLANTIC CITY......17.68/7.23..............33.31/+5.52
GEORGETOWN.........14.51/2.65..............30.14/-0.75

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

SYNOPSIS...EBERWINE
NEAR TERM...EBERWINE
SHORT TERM...EBERWINE
LONG TERM...EBERWINE
AVIATION...RPW
MARINE...RPW
HYDROLOGY...EBERWINE

(RESENT TO CHANGE STORM TO DEPRESSION AND INCREASE RIP CURRENT RISK)

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
529 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2009

DEZ001>003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>023-027-
PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071-300930-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-
CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
529 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-300930-
DELAWARE BEACHES-EASTERN MONMOUTH-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
529 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ450>455-300930-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
529 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-300930-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
529 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

(COR TO CHANGE RIP CURRENT RISK TO HIGH)