Wildfire in California, May 5 to 20, 2009

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1220 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2009

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...THE TAIL END OF A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
BRING SOME CLOUDS TO AREAS NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION TODAY BUT NO RAIN.
IN FACT, THE AIRMASS IS QUITE WARM AND HIGHS THERE SHOULD NOT BE
MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY WITH 60S AT THE COAST AND 70S TO LOW
80S INLAND. OTHERWISE, MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE THE STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS THAT WILL IMPACT SBA COUNTY AND THE I-5 CORRIDOR AREA THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS WELL AS THE WARMING TREND THAT WILL BRING 90S TO THE
INLAND AREAS WED AND THU AND POSSIBLY SRN SBA COUNTY AS WELL. THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE WARMEST AND WINDIEST OF THE MODELS TODAY.
CURRENT FORECAST TAKES A MIDDLE GROUND APPROACH BETWEEN THE NAM AND
GFS, BUT THAT STILL PRODUCES ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE USUAL
NW WIND PRONE AREAS. THERE ARE NO WIND ADVISORIES CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT THOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN SOME GUSTS INTO THE LOW 40S THROUGH
THE CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY BE ISSUING A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE SAME AREAS (INCLUDING THE I-5 CORRIDOR)
AGAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY WED, WITH THIS PATTERN REPEATING ITSELF EACH
NIGHT THIS WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF THE WINDS AND INCREASINGLY WARM
AIRMASS WILL BRING SOME IMPRESSIVELY WARM TEMPS TO SRN SBA COUNTY,
EVEN AT NIGHT WHERE TEMPS COULD EASILY JUMP BACK INTO THE 90S.

GRADIENTS WILL BE TRENDING OFFSHORE WED AND THU RESULTING IN A
WARMING TREND ALL AREAS. HOW MUCH OF THIS WARMING REACHES THE
VENTURA AND LA COUNTY COAST REMAINS TO BE SEEN, HOWEVER WARMER
VALLEY AREAS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING THE 90S, ESPECIALLY THU.

*** LONG TERM FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

.LONG TERM...
AS WE PUSH INTO LATE SPRING THE WEATHER PATTERNS ARE SLOWING DOWN
AND THIS MAKES FOR A BETTER LONG RANGE FORECAST...AT LEAST AT THE
SYNOPTIC LEVEL. BOTH EC AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WEAK RIDGING CONTINUES ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS A
LITTLE FLATTER THAN THURSDAY WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER HGTS SO LOOK FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. MORE THAN LIKELY A MARINE LAYER WILL
ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE CENTRAL COAST AS WELL AS THE LA. COASTS.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP VTA CLOUD FREE BUT THAT THINKING COULD CERTAINLY
CHANGE.

SUNDAY LOOKS A LITTLE COOLER THAN SATURDAY AS HGTS LOWER AS THE HIGH
PUSHES EASTWARD AND NW FLOW SETS UP. THUS IT IS A MYSTERY WHY THE
GFS TEMP GUIDANCE BUMPS TEMPS UP. IGNORED THAT FOR NOW BUT WILL BE
INTERESTED TO SEE IF IT STILL IS FORECASTED TOMORROW.

MONDAY AND NEXT TUESDAY LOOK COOLER AS HGTS DROP AND ONSHORE FLOW
INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION...05/1915Z.
STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CREATE AREAS OF TURBULENCE AND
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...MAINLY FOR KSBA...BUT POSSIBLY ALSO KBUR AND
KVNY. THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO COMPLICATE THE LOW CLOUD
FORECAST TO SOME DEGREE. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE CENTRAL COAST WHILE MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT KLAX AND KLGB.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. FAIRLY EARLY
CLEARING CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE UPON
OCCASION.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...WOFFORD/RORKE
AVIATION...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1024 AM PDT TUE MAY 5 2009

CAZ034>041-044>046-051>054-059-087-088-547-548-061300-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN GABRIEL VALLEY-
1024 AM PDT TUE MAY 5 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE
BETWEEN POINT CONCEPTION TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND INCLUDING THE CHANNEL
ISLANDS IN BETWEEN. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE SANTA
BARBARA SOUTH COAST FROM GAVIOTA TO DOWNTOWN SANTA BARBARA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO AROUND 90 IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WIND ADVISORIES ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY AND INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR.

* WIND ADVISORY..............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* GALE WARNING...............SEE WHUS76 KLOX - MWWLOX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE BETWEEN POINT CONCEPTION TO SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND INCLUDING THE CHANNEL ISLANDS IN BETWEEN. STRONGEST
WINDS SHOULD OCCUR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT EACH NIGHT. A POTENTIAL SUNDOWNER COULD
OCCUR ONCE AGAIN BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE SANTA
BARBARA SOUTH COAST FROM GAVIOTA TO DOWNTOWN SANTA BARBARA.
TEMPERATURES COULD WARM UP TO AROUND 90 IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE LOCALIZED GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE WARM TEMPERATURES. GUSTY
WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

* WIND ADVISORY..............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* GALE WARNING...............SEE WHUS76 KLOX - MWWLOX FOR DETAILS *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WOFFORD