Wildfire in California, August 8 to 21, 2009

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
215 PM PDT SAT AUG 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY THE START OF
THE WORK WEEK. EXPECT COASTAL STRATUS TO AFFECT COASTAL AREAS DURING
THE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK OFFSHORE
WINDS MAY AFFECT THE SANTA BARBARA AREA AND I-5 CORRIDOR AGAIN
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
WARMER DAY TODAY AS A 592DM HIGH ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST OF SAN
FRANCISCO SLOWY BUILDS TO THE EAST...AND NUDGES INTO CA. THIS HAS
USHERED IN A WARMER AIRMASS TO REPLACE THE MILD VARIETY LEFT BEHIND
THE PASSING LOW FROM A FEW DAYS AGO. NO MAJOR WIND CONCERNS
TONIGHT...THOUGH SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT AGAIN OVER SBA
SUNDOWNER COUNTRY AS WELL AS THE I-5 CORRIDOR...BUT THIS SHOULD BE
THE LAST OF IT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THIS BUILDING HIGH HAS ALSO BANDAGED UP THE MARINE INVERSION...
WHICH HAS ALLOWED A SOLID STRATUS DECK TO FORM OFF THE CENTRAL
COAST...WITH PATCHES TO THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH THIS FORECASTERS MARINE
LAYER TRACK RECORD HAS BEEN POOR OF LATE...WITH THE BUILDING HIGH
AND STRENGTHENING ONSHORE GRADIENTS ON SUN...STRATUS SHOULD FINALLY
MAKE IT ASHORE OVER LA AND VTU CO. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS TO HOW
FAR IT PUSHES IN HOWEVER. EVEN WITH THE INCREASED STRATUS
COVERAGE...MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE ANOTHER NICE WARMUP ON SUN...AS
THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES CLOSER TO THE CA AND A LARGE RIDGE BEGINS TO
TAKE SHAPE TO THE EAST. VALLEYS AND DESERTS SHOULD GET BACK INTO
THEIR NORMAL 90 DEGREE RANGE. COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
MARINE LAYER WILDCARD. THE CENTRAL COAST MAY SEE A TOUCH OF
COOLING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BEACHES AS HOT INTERIOR TEMPS WILL
INCREASE ONSHORE GRADS AND SHOULD KEEP STRATUS CLOSE ALL DAY.

MON AND TUE CONTINUES THE WARMING TREND. CONFIDENCE BUILDING IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE HIGH TO THE WEST
MERGING WITH THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. INLAND AREAS WILL SURGE ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH SOME VALLEY AND MTN/DESERTS SPOTS HITTING TRIPLE
DIGITS BY TUE. THE MARINE LAYER HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
COASTS AND NEARBY VALLEYS...WHICH SHOULD MODERATE THE WARMING
THERE.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...
WED AND THU LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK...AS THE
MARRIAGE OF HIGH FROM THE WEST AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST PRODUCES A
MONSTER 595DM RIDGE OVER THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER. ALTHOUGH THE
CENTER IS WELL TO THE EAST...THIS RIDGE STRETCHES ITS HANDS OUT TO
WELL OFF OUR COAST. THIS WILL NOT ONLY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL HEATING
IN THE INLAND AREAS...BUT SHOULD ALSO SQUASH THE MARINE LAYER SOME
AND HEAT UP THE COASTS AND NEARBY VALLEYS A TOUCH MORE. THE WEATHER
CRYSTAL BALL GETS FUZZY AFTER THURSDAY...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A BROAD TROUGH FORMING OFF THE PAC NW. THE CONFIDENCE IN WHAT
HAPPENS IS LOW...AS ENSEMBLES ARE SPREAD OUT LIKE BUTTER ON TOAST.
SOME SOLUTIONS ACTUALLY AMPLIFY THE TROUGH IN PLACE JUST OFF THE
WEST COAST AS IT GETS TRAPPED BEHIND OUR LARGE RIDGE...WHILE OTHER
SOLUTIONS ALLOW IT TO CRUISE ON ITS WAY TO THE NORTH OF US. CURRENT
FORECAST STAYING CONSERVATIVE...WITH JUST A TOUCH OF COOLING AS THE
RIDGE SHOULD RETREAT SOME IN ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

&&

.AVIATION...08/1800Z.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST WHILE A WEAK TROUGH UPSTREAM WITHIN MODERATE TO STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW SHIFTS SOUTH OVER THE AREA. MODERATE UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE AREA WILL BECOME MODERATE SOUTHWEST AFTER
09/18Z. MARINE LAYER EXTENDED TO AROUND 1.5KFT AND CLOUD FIELD WAS
ISOLATED THIS MORNING...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH HEIGHT AND
COVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODERATE ONSHORE GRADIENT WILL EXIST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...BECOMING WEAK OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT.

KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IT IS VERY UNLIKELY CIGS 006 AND VSBY 5SM BR WILL DEVELOP
AROUND 09/13Z AND PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...KITTELL
AVIATION...30
SYNOPSIS...MEIER

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
221 AM PDT SAT AUG 8 2009

CAZ034>041-044>046-051>054-059-087-088-547-548-090921-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN GABRIEL VALLEY-
221 AM PDT SAT AUG 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

HALL