Blizzard in Alaska, March 16 to 17, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AKDT MON MAR 16 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL ARE DOING WELL WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN
WHICH WILL NOT BE CHANGING FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN IS A
SITUATION WHERE DETAILS WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA AREA. THE GFS IS LOOKING GOOD IN THE WESTERN AREAS WITH A
SLIGHT PREFERENCE FOR THE NAM IN THE EAST DUE TO THE SMALL SCALE
FEATURES.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA AND INTO EASTERN RUSSIA. A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS EXTENDING OVER THE MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THE COMBINATION IS GIVING GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR WINDS
OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE SURFACE HIGH JUST
NORTHWEST OF BARROW WITH A COMPLEX LOW IN THE GULF IS CREATING A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE STATE. THE DETAILS OF THIS COMPLEX
LOW WILL DETERMINE THE WEATHER IN AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE GULF FOR
MOST OF THE WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...FOR AN OVERALL PATTERN THAT WILL NOT CHANGE
MUCH THERE CAN BE LARGE CHANGES IN THE WEATHER IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF
TIME AS A SMALL LOW SPINS UP IN THE LOW COMPLEX AND BRINGS MODERATE
SNOWFALL OVER AN AREA AND THEN CLEARS OUT AGAIN SHORTLY. THESE ARE
THE DETAILS THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
STRONG WINDS IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND ACROSS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AS
WELL. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO BE PREVALENT IN THESE AREAS
INTO TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE PATTERN DOES NOT
CHANGE MUCH UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL KEEP THINGS ON THE COLDER
SIDE THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 120 130 150 155 160 165 180
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 130 132 138 140 141 150 155 160 165
                              179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

MAR 09