Blizzard in Alaska, February 8, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST SUN FEB 8 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AT THE SURFACE...A 992 MB LOW IS LOCATED IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
ALASKA. A 961 MB LOW IS 225 NM WEST OF SHEMYA. A STRONG FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THIS
MORNING. BETWEEN THE TWO LOW CENTERS IS A WEAKENING RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE ALASKA MAINLAND
AND INTO WESTERN CANADA. AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA. TO THE WEST OF THIS RIDGE...A
STRONG UPPER LOW IS ASSISTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW
WEST OF SHEMYA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN PAST DAYS...WITH
GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY. PROBLEMS STILL EXIST
REGARDING THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW NEAR SHEMYA TOWARD THE GULF OF
ALASKA BY MIDWEEK. THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING WAS CONSTRUCTED
USING A GFS/NAM BLEND THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...WHICH CONTINUED
CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...
QUIET WEATHER PERSISTS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHCENTRAL THIS
MORNING...WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS. FOG IS AFFECTING PARTS OF COOK INLET
AND THE MATSU VALLEY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE A NUISANCE THROUGH
MONDAY. WINDS ON KODIAK WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THIS MORNING AS
THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS STALLS SOUTH OF THE
AREA...AND A TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS SOUTH OF THE ISLAND.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL WILL BE MINIMAL
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE TRIPLE
POINT LOW ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS AND KODIAK ON MONDAY.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

.SOUTHWEST...
SNOW SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL BE DECREASING ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM AND
BRISTOL BAY AREAS TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA BY
MONDAY...RESULTING IN COLD TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ALASKA PENINSULA TODAY...WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TONIGHT AS A TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS
IN THE WESTERN GULF. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...WITH BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES A
CONCERN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS EXPECT SHOWERS AND STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. SNOW WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE
PRIBILOFS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH A BLIZZARD WARNING IN
EFFECT DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW OVER
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH RAIN AS THE FRONT STALLS
AND DISSIPATES OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES OVERALL IN THE LONG TERM...AS MODELS HAVE
PROBLEMS WITH STORM SYSTEM PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH. WHAT DOES SEEM
LIKELY IS A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...WITH A FAST STORM TRACK ACROSS THE
BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS INTO MAINLAND ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 195
MARINE...GALE 130 132 138 150 155 165 170 171 172 175 176 179 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129 130 138 150 160 165
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

NRH FEB 09