Drought in Wisconsin, December 1 to 31, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
943 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2008

.UPDATE...VERY TYPICAL LATE NOVEMBER PATTERN...WITH BROAD
STRATOCUMULUS DECKS CONTINUALLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THERE
HAS BEEN A BIT OF CLEARING TOWARD THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...AND
FOR AREAS IMMEDIATELY TO THE NORTH OF THE BORDER. HOWEVER...THERE
WAS ANOTHER LARGE SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS NORTH OF THERE...AND HEADED
SOUTH. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME FLURRIES/ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH ON OCCASION AS WELL...SO HAVE ADDED MENTION IN THE
ZONES/GRIDS. REGARDING THE SOUTH SHORE...IT APPEARS THE MAIN ISSUE
WITH REGARD TO GENERATING A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF SNOW IS THE
HEIGHT OF THE INVERSION...GENERALLY AROUND 1KM WITH VERY DRY AIR
ABOVE THIS LAYER. ALSO...THERE IS GENERALLY QUITE DRY AIR WORKING
ITS WAY ACROSS THE LAKE. BUFKIT/BUFR SOUNDINGS NOT GETTING TOO
EXCITED...SO WILL STICK WITH SCATTERED WORDING...AND MENTION UP TO
2 INCHES IN SPOTS ALONG THE GOGEBIC RANGE OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO
ADDED A SMALL POP TO EXTREME NW WI...WHERE SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY
GENERATE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. OTHER THAN THAT...DROPPED TEMPS A BIT
WHERE THE CLOUDS BROKE UP...AND INCREASED WINDS INTO THE TEENS. NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2008/

DISCUSSION...FA BETWEEN TIGHTLY WOUND SYSTEM TO THE SE AND HIGH
PRESSURE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NW. TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE NW WI PART OF THE FA WHERE SOME GUSTY WINDS OCCURRING. NO
SYNOPTIC LIFT IN THIS AREA. HAVE A LOW POP IN SOUTHERN PRICE
COUNTY WI DUE TO PROXIMITY OF SE SYSTEM. FAVORABLE WIND OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH CAA TONIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS. ONLY LIMITING FACTOR
TO THE LES IS THE DRIER AIR THAT IS ATTEMPTING TO MIX OVER THE
LAKE...CURRENTLY SEEN ON VIS SATELLITE AS HOLES OPENING IN THE
CLOUD DECK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE FA
TONIGHT...BUT LITTLE CLEARING.

WIND BECOMES NW ON MONDAY...BUT STILL WORTHY OF KEEPING CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE SNOW BELT REGION OF NW WI. NEUTRAL TEMPS WILL KEEP SNOW
AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. ELSEWHERE...THE RIDGING MOVES INTO THE
FA. RIDGING CROSSES THE REST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...APPROACHING CLIPPER BEGINS TO IMPACT THE FAR NW QUAD OF THE
FA. GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT...LOWERING CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
AND HAVE PLACED A SMALL POP IN RESPONSE. THIS IS A CONSENSUS
APPROACH ON TIMING AS MODELS DISAGREE ON ONSET OF PCPN. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE LIGHT SNOW.

THE CLIPPER PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FA QUICKLY ON TUESDAY.
PCPN TYPE WILL BE SNOW PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HAVE ALIGNED POPS
ACCORDINGLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FROPA. BEST LIFT OCCURS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
NW FA. FAST NW FLOW CONTINUES AND WILL BRING CLIPPER SYSTEMS THROUGH
THE FA THROUGH DAY 7.

AVIATION...WDSPRD MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH EVENING...FALLING TO IFR
FOR MOST AREAS BY 06Z. LIGHT SN ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTING IN NRN
WI...MAINLY AFFECTING KHYR AND EAST. FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. N WINDS
WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING...BECOMING GUSTY OVERNIGHT AND ON MON.

&&

POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  11  24  13  29 /  10  10  10  30
INL   7  19   9  29 /  10  10  20  50
BRD  12  25  15  34 /  10  10  10  20
HYR  14  24  10  30 /  20  10  10  40
ASX  15  24  14  33 /  40  20  10  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST MONDAY FOR LSZ121-LSZ146-
     LSZ147-LSZ148.

DAP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
345 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2008

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-011130-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
345 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY. AT THIS
TIME ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT.
HOWEVER...LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ...A STORM SYSTEM MAY ORGANIZE
OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM DOES
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE
NORTHLAND. ALTHOUGH DETAILS ON THE STORM TRACK ARE NOT
CLEAR...LATEST INFORMATION SUGGESTS THAT NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WOULD
BE THE MOST IMPACTED. PLEASE CHECK FUTURE FORECASTS FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DULUTH REGARDING THIS PARTICULAR
WEATHER SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.

LSZ121-140>148-011130-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
345 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT WING TO SAXON HARBOR
WISCONSIN TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT WING TO SAXON HARBOR
WISCONSIN THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

GSF

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)