Flash Flood and Heavy Rain in Texas, September 14 to 15, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
435 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

.DISCUSSION...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND POSTED THE FFA FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA FROM THE LATEST KBRO RADAR TRENDS SHOWING AN INCREASE OF THE
TRAINING POTENTIAL AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CONV CELLS. NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008/

DISCUSSION...TROPICAL MSTR AND SHRTWV ENERGY BEING ADVECTED TO THE
RGV AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK CF SCHEDULED FOR VERY SLOW FROPA
STARTING IN THE NRN RGV ZNS THIS EVENING AND BISECTING VLY BY 1 PM
MONDAY.

ATTM...AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FM THE GULF WATERS OF TAMPICO,
MEXICO TO BAFFIN BAY. SHRAS/+TSRAS ARE STARTING TO FIRE JUST SOUTH
AND NORTH OF BRO...AND ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE.
ALSO...SHRAS/+TSRAS WERE FORMING 50 TO 55 NM SOUTH OF THE SPI
JETTIES WITH A NORTHWEST MVMT AT 20 KTS.

BRO U/A FM 14.1200Z IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE...WITH PWATS AT 2.06
INCHES AND LIS OF -8.7 WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE SFC TO H7. XPCT
INCREASING SHRAS/+TSRAS THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH FLOODING RAINS BY
THIS EVENING AND MONDAY.

NAM12 BEST BET FOR THIS SHALLOW COOL AIR ENTRY EVENT. HAVE FOLLOWED
THIS MDL FOR MASS FIELDS...BUT AM CONCERNED THAT THE VALLEY MAY OR
MAY NOT CLEAR AFTER MONDAY. THIS POSSIBILITY OF CLEARING WILL CHANGE
TEMPS MARKEDLY WILL STAY WITH CLOUDY NAM12 WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT IN
THE MEAN RH FIELD WITH GFS.

MARINE...SWELLS CONTINUE TO RICOCHET AROUND THE GULF KEEPING SEAS
IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS CHAOTIC EVEN AS THEY SUBSIDE FROM IKE.
EXPECT WAVE HEIGHTS TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 5 AND 6 FEET INTO THE
EVENING.  COLD FRONT/SURFACE BOUNDARY BACKS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
EARLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL IMPOSE NORTHERLY WIND WAVES ON TOP OF
DECLINING SWELLS KEEPING SEAS ROUGH THROUGH MID WEEK.  SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD AND ALONG STALLING FRONT WILL PRODUCE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CONTINUED TODAY AND TONIGHT.  MAY NEED TO POST ADVISORY MONDAY AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND SEAS RESPOND TO NORTHERLY FLOW.  MARINE
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATE WEEK AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WASHES
OUT.

AVIATION...TSRA FIRING ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE BOUNDARY
LRD-ALI-CRP AT 18Z.  EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCT TSRA VCNTY TERMINALS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AFTER 06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  75  85  71  83 /  30  60  30  20
BROWNSVILLE          75  86  69  83 /  30  60  30  30
HARLINGEN            75  86  71  83 /  30  50  30  20
MCALLEN              75  86  68  84 /  30  60  30  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      75  86  67  85 /  40  60  30  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  84  72  82 /  30  60  30  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ248>257.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

58/51/MARTINEZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1139 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-TXZ248>257-151100-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
1139 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND THE LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AND HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR
KENEDY...COASTAL WILLACY...AND COASTAL CAMERON COUNTIES HAS BEEN
CANCELED NOW...AS MARINE CONDITIONS SUBSIDE. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE FLOODING IN AREAS
WITH POOR DRAINAGE...IN LOW-LYING AREAS...AND IN AREAS STILL
SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS RAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND BOCA CHICA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLE
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
AT THE LOCAL BEACHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY FLOODING MONDAY TO LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BROWNSVILLE.

PHILO