Wildfire in Texas, January 28, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1213 PM CST MON JAN 28 2008

.UPDATE...
WINDS ARE MEETING WARNING AND ADVISORY CRITERIA A BIT FURTHER EAST
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. SO UPDATED THE NPW TO INCLUDE
HANSFORD...OCHILTREE...HUTCHINSON...ROBERTS...CARSON...AND GRAY
COUNTIES IN THE HIGH WIND WARNING...AND ADDED WHEELER COUNTY TO THE
WIND ADVISORY.

JJB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CST MON JAN 28 2008/

AVIATION...
STRONG LL FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT ALONG
WITH VERTICAL MIXING WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS NEAR 35 KNOTS GUSTING
ABOVE 45 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS MAY ALSO HELP CREATE AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST. GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX BY 00Z SO BROUGHT WIND SPEEDS
DOWN...BUT EXPECT THE WINDS TO RETURN BY 10Z WHEN WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS. COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE PANHANDLES MAY
REACH KGUY BY 15Z...BUT HELD OFF ON BRINGING THE FRONT INTO KAMA FOR
THIS TAF PACKAGE. SKY COVER SHOULD REMAIN VFR OTHER THAN ANY BLOWING
DUST. ONLY ANTICIPATING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

JJB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM CST MON JAN 28 2008/

DISCUSSION...
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS OVR PNHDLS TDA WILL RESULT IN RAPID DPNG OF LEE
TROF...AND STRONG WINDS THRU A DP LYR GIVEN TIGHT H8 AND H7 HEIGHT
GRADIENTS. LESSER COVERAGE OF CLDS TDA WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR BETTER
MIXING...TRANSPORTING HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TO THE SFC. WITH WINDS AT
H8 AND H7 IN EXCESS OF 50KT...HAVE UPGRADED WIND ADZY ACRS WRN THIRD
OF FCST AREA TO HIGH WIND WRNG. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED WIND ADZY TO
INCLUDE ALL BUT SERN ZONES...WHERE TEMPORAL CRITERION IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE MET. ADDITIONALLY...UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS EXPECTED GIVEN
STRONG DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT TO WINDS AND BALMY MINIMA THIS MRNG.

CDFNT TO MOVE SWD ACRS PNHDLS TUES MRNG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS FCST
IN ITS WAKE...BUT SHOULD ONLY DELIVER GLANCING BLOW BEFORE LEE TROF
REDEVELOPS AMIDST QUASIZONAL MID LVL FLOW BY WEDS MRNG.

A SECOND CDFNT TO PUSH THRU WEDS NGT AHEAD OF NEXT STRONG SHRTWV TROF.
THIS TROF APPEARS TO TAP INTO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME...AND COULD
BRING LIGHT PCPN TO THE FCST AREA. HAVE INTRODUCED SLGT CHC TO CHC
POPS WEDS EVE AS THIS WAVE MOVES ACRS. TRIMMED POPS TO SLGT CHC ERN
ZONES ONLY FOR THU AS RAPID EXIT OF SYSTEM IS EXPECTED. ANY PCPN WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW WEDS NGT AS CD AIR INVADES.

RAPID RECOVERY IN TEMPS EXPECTED AGAIN FRI...AS LEE TROF REAPPEARS
AND STRONG SWLY WINDS ENSUE. A SHRTWV TROF IN THE NRN STREAM DRIVES A
WK CDFNT SWD FRI NGT...WITH MAXIMA NR CLIMO FOR THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMA TDA WERE WARMED A FEW DEG ABV MEXMOS GIVEN MAXIMA YDA AND WARM
MINIMA THIS MRNG. MAXIMA WERE LOWERED THURS ACRS NERN ZONES...AND
WERE WARMED ABV MEXMOS IN THE EXTENDED PDS BY 2 TO 4 DEG F AS STRONG
SLY WINDS RESUME. OTHERWISE...MEXMOS VALUES WERE FOLLOWED.

KRAMAR

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS EXPECTED TDA GIVEN STRONG WINDS...VERY
WARM TEMPS...DRYING AIR AND DRY FUELS. ALTHOUGH FCST RH VALUES ARE
MARGINAL...AT LEAST WRN ZONES SHOULD SEE RED FLAG CRITERIA MET. HAVE
THEREFORE UPGRADED FIRE WX WATCH TO RED FLAG WRNG FOR WRN HALF OF
FCST AREA.

ADDITIONAL FIRE WX DAYS MAY BE ENCOUNTERED THIS WEEK AS VERY DRY AIR
MOVES INTO THE PNHDLS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR MID TO LATE WEEK TO SEE
IF CONDITIONS COMBINE APPROPRIATELY.

KRAMAR

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...GRAY...
     HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OCHILTREE...
     OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...HEMPHILL...LIPSCOMB...WHEELER.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...
     HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...
     RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.

&&

14/02

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CST MON JAN 28 2008

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-291200-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
100 PM CST MON JAN 28 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND FOR ALL BUT THE EXTREME EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6
PM CST FOR BEAVER...LIPSCOMB...HEMPHILL...WHEELER AND ARMSTRONG
COUNTIES.

SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ESPECIALLY STRONG
TODAY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRONG WINDS...CONTINUED WARM AND DRY
AIR...AND DRY FUELS...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
UNTIL 7 PM CST.

CAUTION IS ADVISED ON AREA LAKES TONIGHT FOR STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE IS A CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS ANY ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LIGHT.

BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES OF NEAR 15 TO 20 PERCENT LATE THIS WEEK WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

BROST