Hail in Texas, April 4, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
551 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2008

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED THE MORNING FORECAST FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 163
IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. HILL
COUNTRY THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE WATCH REMAIN STRONGLY CAPPED AT THIS TIME.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2008/

DISCUSSION...
THE EARLY MORNING SOUTHEAST TEXAS AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST BUT STRONGLY
CAPPED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA
ARE HEADING THIS WAY. MODELS HAVE THE AREA CAP ERODING THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
FEEL BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NORTHEAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND MENTION SEVERE IN OUR NORTHEAST
COUNTIES WHERE CAP HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF BEING BROKEN. FOR TODAY...WILL
CARRY HIGHEST POPS NORTH AND NORTHEAST AND LOWEST POPS DOWN SOUTH. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
ALL RAINS WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON WEST AND EARLY THIS EVENING
EAST. A DRY END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND IS STILL ON TRACK WITH COOLER
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AND LOWER DAYTIME HUMIDITIES. MODELS ARE
SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN NEXT WEEKS WEATHER RESULTING
IN A LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE. WITH THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...WILL CARRY
ONLY LOW POPS UP NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS AREAWIDE
ON THURSDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARIES APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST. 42

AVIATION...
FEW-SCT MVFR DECK IS FORECAST TO THICKEN UP GOING INTO THE SUNRISE
HOUR...HIGH OVERCAST FROM WESTERN THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER BLOW OFF
REACHING NORTHERN HUBS BY 11Z. SOUTHERLIES AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT...CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS DFW METROPLEX AND EXTENDING TO JUST
WEST OF WACO AT 09Z...WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO INHIBIT ANY SIG FOG
DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE IS LOWERING ON ANY MVFR FOG DUE TO CURRENT
CF TIMING...TRENDING WINDS REMAIN NEAR CURRENT MAGNITUDES THROUGH
14-15Z. POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...MARGINAL MVFR BKN-OVC DECK
THROUGH 00Z. VFR IMPROVEMENT IN THE 03-06Z HOURS AS BULK OF
COOLER/DRY AIR ADVECTS OVER REGION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNS PUSH.
ONLY CAVEAT TO END PERIOD WILL BE THE FORMATION OF SHALLOW FOG UNDER
DECOUPLING WINDS (PER EXPANDING SFC HIGH) TAPPING INTO WHAT LITTLE
MOISTURE IS LEFT FROM THIS AFTERNOONS SCT -SHRA/POSSIBLE ISO -TSRA.
NOTE: KGLS IS CURRENTLY NOT REPORTING WX/VIS SO 12Z TAF FOR THIS
SITE WILL ONLY BE BASED UPON SATELLITE/SURROUNDING REGIONAL OBS.
31

MARINE...
PER BUOY AND PORTS DATA...WINDS AND SEA STATE HAVE BEEN BORDERLINE
SCEC ALL NIGHT...BUT WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT...FEEL KEEPING SCEC
FLAGS ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH 18Z WILL BE WARRANTED. COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS TIMED TO CROSS THE WATERS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.
AFTER AN AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OF WEAKENED WESTERLIES RIGHT
DOWNSTREAM OF THE NEARING FRONT...EARLY SATURDAY MORNING NORTHERLIES
WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. THUS...A SHORT FUSE SCA MAY LIKELY
BE UP FOR THE SATURDAY SUNRISE TIME FRAME TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
WINDS...OFFSHORE WIND DRIVEN SEAS AT AROUND 7 FEET. ONCE INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MARINE WEATHER LOOKS VERY NICE AS HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES CHARGE. EASTERLY VEERING LIGHT WINDS BACK TO ONSHORE BY SUNDAY
WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS. WIND SPEEDS PICK BACK UP LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT INLAND COLD FRONT ENTERING CENTRAL
TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  49  77  52  80 /  60  10   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  53  77  54  80 /  60  20   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            77  60  73  64  76 /  50  30   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...
     MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
411 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2008

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-051200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
411 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2008

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A WARM LAYER
OF AIR ALOFT LIMITING STORM INTENSITY. HOWEVER...THERE COULD STILL BE
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM MADISONVILLE
TO CONROE TO MOSS HILL. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.