Lightning Strike in Texas, April 26, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
329 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2008

.DISCUSSION...
A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. A FEW STORMS
PULSED TO SEVERE LEVELS WITH SOME HAIL IN BRAZORIA COUNTY. AT
08Z...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG A LONGVIEW TO TEMPLE TO
JUNCTION LINE. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD AND WILL ENTER
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN BECOME STATIONARY. A PLETHORA
OF BOUNDARIES WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND WILL PROBABLY SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING. RAISED POPS FOR
TODAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE AREA UNCAPPED. SOUTHEAST
TEXAS LIES IN A 250 MB JET COUPLET AND PWS REMAIN AROUND 1.3-1.4
INCHES. A S/WV IS VISIBILE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THIS FEATURE
SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND 18Z. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS PICK UP ON THIS
FEATURE BUT HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT PLACEMENTS. THE AREA BECOMES
QUITE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW
OF THE STORMS BECOME SEVERE.

A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE JET STRUCTURE IS A BIT OUT OF PHASE AND THE UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS WEAKER THAN PROGGED YESTERDAY...BUT STRONG LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND REASONABLY DEEP MOISTURE LEVELS STILL
WARRANT HIGH RAIN CHANCES. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
FRONT AS THE NAM REMAINS FASTER. WILL BASICALLY SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS. CLEARING AND COLDER BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPS MODERATE MID-WEEK AS UPPER
FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST NEXT
FRIDAY AND A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. TEMPS AT THE
END OF WEEK LOOK WARM WITH A BRIEF COOL DOWN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE COAST FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO
LIFT BACK NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE MODELS HAVE
SLOWED THE FRONT SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY. STILL EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO
PUSH OFF THE COAST AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      83  65  68  47  79 /  40  60  70   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              84  66  72  47  78 /  40  30  70   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  71  77  55  74 /  30  20  70  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
339 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2008

TXZ178-179-199-200-210>214-226-227-235>238-261300-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-HARRIS-
JACKSON-LIBERTY-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-WALLER-
WHARTON-
339 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN THIRD OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
LATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT MAY GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.

.DAY TWO...SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAY THREE...SUNDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL COMBINE WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE A ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE 1/2 TO 1 INCH
WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.

.DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TXZ163-164-176-177-195>198-261300-
BRAZOS-BURLESON-GRIMES-HOUSTON-MADISON-TRINITY-WALKER-WASHINGTON-
339 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2008

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN THIRD OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT INTERACTS WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
IN PLACE. A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE...MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM BRENHAM TO HUNTSVILLE TO
TRINITY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. THE PRIMARY TIME FRAME FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE 9 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY MORNING.
SPOTTY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGER STORMS.

.DAY TWO...SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAY THREE...LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL COMBINE WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE A ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.
A FEW STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE MAINLY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 1 INCH WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS OF AROUND 2 INCHES.

.DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING.