Hail and Lightning Strike in Texas, April 17, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
814 PM CDT THU APR 17 2008

.UPDATE...BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION LATE THIS EVENING ALONG SOUTHWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING INTO WESTERN HILL COUNTRY.  SO
FAR, ONLY PEA SIZE HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED AT LANGTRY IN VAL
VERDE COUNTY. THIS OCCURRED IN THE STORM AT THE END OF THE
BROKEN LINE OF STORMS. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND PUSH INTO THE EASTERN
HILL COUNTRY BYY MIDNIGHT AND SPREAD OVER THE REMAINDER
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
ESPECIALLY AT THE LOWER END OF THE LINE OF STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE WITH MITIGATING FACTORS OF COMPRESSIONAL MID LEVEL
CAP AND NEGATIVE DYNAMICS LIMITING A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT THU APR 17 2008/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED STORM SYSTEM. CIGS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR BY 04-05 ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED AFTER 04Z. TEMPO IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS AS WELL AS VARIABLE GUSTS TO 35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. KDRT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
TSRA BRIEFLY LOWERING CONDITIONS TO IFR OVERNIGHT. SE SFC WINDS OF
15 TO 20 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
SHIFTING TO NW TO NRLY 15 TO 20KTS BY 03-07Z. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE NEAR-SUNRISE HOURS...BUT NRLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 15KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT THU APR 17 2008/

DISCUSSION...AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS OF WARM SPRING TIME
WEATHER...CLOUDS AND WIND...A STORM SYSTEM IS ON THE WAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH TEXAS OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.
THE TROUGH WILL BRING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT...BRINGING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WAY. THERE ARE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING AS WELL. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.
THERE ARE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWFA...HOWEVER...FEEL THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. BASICALLY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. THE STORM
PREDICTIONS CENTER IN NORMAN HAS INCLUDED MUCH OF OUR AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE EVENT AND NATURE OF THE
EVENT...IT IS LIKELY THERE WILL ONLY BE ISOLATED STORMS THAT MAY
BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL END ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE
MORNING ON FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. GULF FLOW WILL RETURN AS EARLY AS SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER. A QUASI- ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

MODELS INDICATE A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION NEXT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS MAY BRING SOME CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION...THUS...INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...WETTING RAIN CHANCES ARE ON THE WAY FOR TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. ON
FRIDAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LESS THAN 15-20
PERCENT IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU.
HOWEVER...THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
FALL BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. THUS...NO RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE
ISSUED AT THIS TIME. SATURDAY COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RED
FLAG CRITERIA TO BE MET AS WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW ONCE AGAIN. DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE WILL
HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              56  76  51  81  60 /  80  10   0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  55  74  45  81  57 /  80  10   0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           55  81  55  86  64 /  30  10   0  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       53  75  51  81  60 /  70  10   0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

02/25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
655 PM CDT THU APR 17 2008

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-181200-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
655 PM CDT THU APR 17 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS
THE REGION. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND WINDS MAY REACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
VALUES WEST OF A ROCKSPRINGS TO CARRIZO SPRINGS LINE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. VALUES MAY ONCE AGAIN REACH CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER VALUES SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS SAME AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.