Flood in Oklahoma, March 18 to 21, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
929 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE CANCELLED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44. WILL CONTINUE THE
FLOOD WATCH AND AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. FLOODING PROBLEMS CONTINUE
IN MOST AREAS.

HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES...POPS...QPF...AND INDICATED THAT
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND THAT WILL
BE DIMINISHING AND ENDING FROM THE WEST DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

WILL TRY TO HAVE UPDATES AND EXTENSIONS TO AREA FLOOD WARNING
OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ062-OKZ063-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-
     OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-
     ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
509 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-191000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
440 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DIMINISHING...FLOODING CONTINUES...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES TO DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES IN A SWATH FROM NORTHEAST
TEXAS...ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND INTO
NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. RAIN STILL IS FALLING OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA BUT WILL BE STARTING TO END FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING.

THERE REMAINS A SMALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT.

A LARGE SWATH OF 3 TO 5 INCHES RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE LAST 24 HOURS
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WITH
A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS RECEIVING OVER 6 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS HEAVY
RAINFALL IS OCCURRING IN A LARGE AREA OF ATMOSPHERIC LIFT...MAINLY
NORTH OF A SLOW MOVING FRONT LOCATED OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS
INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
THIS EVENING. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

ROAD FLOODING ALONG WITH MAINSTREAM RIVER FLOODING WILL OCCUR DUE TO
THE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A PERIOD OF QUITE AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MAY AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND...WITH A LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.