Hail in Oklahoma, June 17, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
204 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2008

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE ZONE FORECAST TO INCLUDE MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 558 WHICH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FAR WESTERN TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO WILL DRIFT EAST OR SOUTHEAST INTO THE
PANHANDLES IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SUPPORT MAINLY A HAIL AND WIND THREAT TO CONTINUE AS THE STORMS
APPROACH THE CWA.

KIMBLE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1242 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2008/

AVIATION...
MAIN TAF CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND LOW CIGS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE MAY ENABLE THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM GENLY AFTER 00Z
IF MVFR CIGS CAN DISSIPATE AND ALLOW SURFACE HEATING TO TAKE PLACE.
INSERTED VCTS REMARKS AROUND 00Z AT ALL TAF SITES WITH PROB 30 GROUPS
AFTER 03Z. STORMS MAY LINGER AFTER 0Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT
THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT ANY TAF SITES. LEFT MENTION OF IFR TO MVFR
CIGS AT ALL SITES FOR TOMORROW MORNING...WITH CIGS LIFTING AFTER 14Z.

JJB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2008/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST SKY COVER TO REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS NOTED ON SATELLITE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO ERODE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN ALL AREAS. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY AND ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FEEL THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PANHANDLE IF SUFFICIENT HEATING OCCURS. STRONGER CAP TO THE SOUTHWEST
SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION TO THAT WHICH APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
WEST LATER IN THE EVENING.

KIMBLE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2008/

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS MORNING. THOUGH MOISTURE
IS SHALLOW...MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER A BETTER PART OF THE MORNING.
LATER TODAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND TAPS INTO MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR.

NUNEZ

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2008/

DISCUSSION...
RETURN OF MSTR IN THE FORM OF DWPTS IN THE LWR 60S F UNDERWAY.
EXPECT MSTR TO REMAIN IN PLACE MOST ZONES TDA AS UPSLP AND CLOUDS
JOIN TO LIMIT MIXING. ALSO...ONGOING CNVCTN APPEARS TO BE WANING.

EXPECTING SHRTWV TROF TO MOVE SE FROM CNTRL ROCKIES THIS AFTN...AND
CNVCTN SHOULD REDVLP AGAIN ON HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG REMNANT BNDRYS.
THREAT FOR SVR WX WILL CONT AS SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED TSTMS...WITH SELY LOW LVL AND NWLY UPR LVL FLOW.

HOW TNGT EVOLVES COULD IMPACT TSTM CHCS TMW. IF MCS DVLPS AS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...MSTR RETURN BEHIND SYSTEM MAY BE LIMITED. DESPITE WDSPRD
PCPN IN MOST MODEL RUNS...ENOUGH MSTR IS FCST TO RETURN BY TMW EVE FOR
INITIATION ON HIGHER TERRAIN AS A SECOND SHRTWV TROF MOVES ACRS CWA.
CNVCTN TMW EVE SHOULD CONGEAL INTO AN MCS AND MOVE THRU PNHDLS TMW NGT.
KEPT POPS AS INHERITED WED EVE.

LITTLE CHANGE IS NOTED IN EXTENDED PDS AS UPR RDG NOSES NWD. TSTMS
EXPECTED AGAIN THU EVE...BUT THESE SHOULD FORM SLGTLY FURTHER N. A
BNDRY IMPINGING ON FCST AREA THU COULD IMPACT MAXIMA ACRS NERN ZONES.
IF PCPN OCCURS IN THE PNHDLS...IT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO NERN 2/3 OF
THE AREA ON THU EVE AS MCS TRAVERSES SWRN KS...DRIVING CDFNT SWD.

EXPECTING TSTMS TO FORM ALONG SFC TROF IN ERN NM ON FRI AFTN AND EVE.
MSTR SHOULD STILL BE IN PLACE ACRS PNHDLS BEHIND CDFNT...WITH NELY TO
ELY SFC WINDS...BUT STEERING FLOW FROM MORE NLY DIRECTION IS LKLY TO
KEEP TSTMS IN NM FRI EVE.

SAT AFTN MAY BE A DIFFERENT STORY AS SFC TROF AXIS WILL BE FOUND ACRS
THE WRN SECTIONS OF PNHDLS. HAVE RETAINED SLGT CHC POPS AS INHERITED
ATTM...BUT WILL NEED TO REVISIT THIS IF FCST SHRTWV TROF MATERIALIZES.

RETURN TO WARM...DRY CONDITIONS LATE IN FCST DESPITE CONTG NWLY FLOW.
BACKED OFF ON PCPN AFTER SAT EVE AS UPR RDG AXIS AMPLIFIES TO W...WITH
UPR TROF OVER NERN CONUS...AND MSTR MIXING OUT DURG THE AFTNS.

CONCERNING TEMPS...TDA SHOULD SEE MAXIMA IN 80S MANY AREAS AS CLOUDS WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK. OTHERWISE...MEXMOS WAS REASONABLE AS INCRG HGTS LEAD
TO WARMER MAXIMA IN SLGTLY DRIER AMS. ONLY DEVIATIONS WERE MADE ON THU
AND SAT. MEXMOS DID NOT REFLECT WELL THE IMPACT OF BNDRY IN PNHDLS ON
THU MRNG...AND SEEMED TOO COOL ON SAT...WHEN UPR RDG WILL START TO
AMPLIFY.

AS THIS IS MY FINAL OPERATIONAL SHIFT AT WFO AMA...I WOULD LIKE TO
SAY THAT IT HAS BEEN AN EXCITING FOUR YEARS WORKING AT AMARILLO...AND
FROM SEVERE WX TO WINTER WX...IT HAS BEEN A PLEASURE FORECASTING AND
WARNING FOR THE RESIDENTS OF THE PANHANDLES.

KRAMAR

FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WX CONCERNS WILL BE LIMITED TO LIGHTNING AS TSTM CHCS CONT NEXT
FEW DAYS.

KRAMAR

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

14/13

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2008

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-181100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
100 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AS A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOME STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE GIVEN THE EXPECTED MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS SHOULD MONITOR
WEATHER DEVELOPMENTS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND BE PREPARED
FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION.

BROST