Damaging Winds in Oklahoma, August 5, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
339 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008

.DISCUSSION...
WILL ALLOW HEAT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM AS SEVERAL DAYS OF
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA. 24-HR TEMPERATURE
CHANGES ARE RUNNING 3 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS MOST AREAS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS WILL BE EVEN COOLER WEDNESDAY AS
EDOUARD CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWEST AND WEST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.
MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS FORM NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL ADD IN LOW POPS ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA FOR THIS EVENING. EXPECT MORE CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH EDOUARD WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

12Z ECM AND GFS ARE MORE SIMILAR IN THE OVERALL LONG WAVE
PATTERN BY 00Z FRIDAY.  AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES
AND EASTERN TROUGH DEVELOPS...SHOULD HAVE A DECENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY THURSDAY INTO THE
DAY FRIDAY.  FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE SLIGHTLY FASTER FRONTAL
MOVEMENT OF THE GFS. MAY SEE ANOTHER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM INFLUENCE
THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  96  70  91 /   0   0  10  30
HOBART OK         76  95  71  91 /   0   0  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  94  72  92 /   0  10  20  30
GAGE OK           70  98  66  88 /  20   0  10  40
PONCA CITY OK     77  96  71  88 /   0  10  30  30
DURANT OK         73  93  71  91 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005>008-010>013-
     015>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ085-086-088>090.

&&

SIX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1145 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-061200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1145 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.

DISCUSSION...
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY OCCUR ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AS DAYTIME HEATING COMBINES WITH INCREASING LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM EDOUARD.

MOISTURE FROM EDOUARD WILL APPROACH NORTH TEXAS AND THE RED RIVER
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY
UNLIKELY.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT WEDNESDAY AUG 6.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...20 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...10 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND A SMALL PART OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORY FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
ON WEDNESDAY...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AS MOISTURE FROM
EDOUARD SPREADS NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL TEXAS. ALSO...A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY
PROVIDE A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR ISOLATED STORMS. ON THURSDAY...THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION...POSSIBLY
REACHING THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. ALONG WITH LESS HOT
CONDITIONS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE ARE STILL INDICATIONS THAT NORTHWESTERLY
MID-LEVEL WINDS MAY BECOME ESTABLISHED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IF THIS OCCURS...THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS THAT FORM OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS COULD AFFECT THE REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE OF THE REGION...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR BEHIND THE MENTIONED FRONT...WE SHOULD SEE AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S ARE STILL
EXPECTED...BUT EXCESSIVE HEAT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
WEDNESDAY.

11/30

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
406 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008

OKZ005-006-052130-
WOODS OK-ALFALFA OK-
406 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR ALFALFA AND WOODS COUNTIES.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE LOCATED FROM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF
CAPRON TO 5 MILES SOUTH OF DACOMA AT 406 PM CDT MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS TO 40 MPH. THE LINE WAS NEARLY STATIONARY. MOST OF THESE
SHOWERS WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.

WR