Hail and Damaging Winds in Ohio, June 21, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
128 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SWEEP ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST OHIO THIS EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO THE WEST OVER IL THIS MORNING...BUT
CU ALREADY GOING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO QUICKLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS IN THIS MORNING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON UPGRADED FAR
WESTERN ZONES TO LIKELY POPS BUT KEPT REMAINING AREAS WITH CHC
POPS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH COVERAGE AS ACTIVITY BUILDS EAST. ALSO
UPGRADED NE OH AND NW PA LAKESHORE ZONES TO LIKELY POPS WITH
ACTIVITY MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE LAKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THE TREND SHOWS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS A TROF DROPS INTO THE
REGION BRIEFLY CLOSING OFF AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING IN COOLER AIR ALOFT AND A GENERAL INCREASE IN INSTABILITY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE NOT A WASHOUT WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE
TEMPS LOOK FINE WITH NEAR 80 OR LOWER 80S TODAY AND A FEW DEGREES
LOWER ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS COOL BUT ON THE DRY SIDE WITH THE GFS
STILL SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SHORT WAVE
UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST. THE PATTERN WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A
RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP OUT OF THE GLFMX. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE BACK TOWARD OR JUST ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE
MARK BUT WILL ALSO INCREASE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION FIRED OVER INDIANA AND ILLINOIS AND WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE EAST. MOST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS THAT IT WILL AFFECT
TOLEDO AND FINDLAY AREAS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN
POSTED FOR THOSE AREAS. AREAS TO THE EAST WILL LIKELY SEE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AND WEAKEN TO SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER SOME HAZE
IN THE EARLY MORNING EXPECTED TOMORROW. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...A SECONDARY TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA WILL RESULT IN FAIR SKIES TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PCPN TO THE TAF ROUTES ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FLOW DURING MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT ON LAKE ERIE.
A WEAK COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY
SUNDAY.  UNTIL THEN S TO SW FLOW LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE.
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.  A
SECONDARY FRONT MAY FOLLOW ON MONDAY WHICH WILL TURN THE FLOW TO THE
NORTH FOR A TIME.  RIDGING WILL RETURN TO THE LAKE ON TUESDAY.  THE
RIDGE WILL SLIDE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING SW FLOW TO RETURN.  THERE WILL BE GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  PRECIP IS POSSIBLE BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN THIRD OF
AREA UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...ABE
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...KUBINA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1156 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

LEZ061-145>149-165>169-OHZ010>014-020>023-029>033-037-038-047-089-
PAZ001>003-221600-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-
CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-
LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-RICHLAND-
ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-
NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
1156 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT COULD BE SEVERE AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

LEZ142>144-162>164-OHZ003-006>009-017>019-027-028-036-221600-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-LUCAS-WOOD-
OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-MARION-
1156 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 589 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED.