Hail in Ohio, August 7, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
352 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE HOWEVER OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE IN GREATER CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER.
THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY REACH THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NEXT TROUGH ABOUT READY TO COME THROUGH THE AREA FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MOST NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS WILL
BE EARLIER RATHER THAN LATER WITH THE AID OF HEATING/AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. EXPECT A LULL DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AFTER THIS
TROUGH PASSAGE...BUT WITH LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY AND COLDER AIR
CONTINUING TO PRESS INTO THE AREA EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE LAKE AGAIN TOWARD MORNING PUSHING INTO
NORTHEAST OHIO/NW PA DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE FRIDAY MAY START OUT SHOWERY...LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE
THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL SEE A LULL IN ACTIVITY FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ONE MAJOR LOBE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
THE NEXT FOR SATURDAY EVENING. SO HAVE SCALED BACK POPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND WEST DURING THIS PERIOD PICKING THEM BACK UP WITH THE
TROUGH PASSAGE SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT. EXCEPTION MAY BE FAR
EASTERN LAKE EFFECT AREAS WHERE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL NOT QUIT. WITH
THIS NEXT LOBE BEING ADVERTISED ON BOTH GFS AND ECMWF FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPRESSED/BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ARE RATHER DIVERGENT IN THEIR FORECAST NEXT
WEEK OVER THE EASTERN STATES THE GFS DEVELOPS OR KEEPS A RATHER DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE
TROUGH FARTHER EAST ALONG THE COAST WITH RIDGING OVER THE LAKES.
WILL USE THE EURO SOLUTION OR LEAN IN THAT DIRECTION. GENERALLY DRY
TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EXPECTED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MIDDAY HEATING AND GRADUAL COOLING ALOFT HAS INCREASED INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE REGION AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN
COVERAGE OVER LOWER MI AND LAKE ERIE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE STILL FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO TNGT AS
COOLING ALOFT CONTINUES WITH STILL VERY WARM LAKE ERIE ACTING AS A
STATIC SOURCE OF INSTABILITY. WILL INCLUDE VCTS IN THE TAFS TO
REFLECT STORMS NEARBY. TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL STORMS IS DIFFICULT.
ACTIVITY SHOULD END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET FROM TOL TO MFD BUT
PERSIST IN THE USUAL LAKE EFFECT AREAS FROM CLE TO YNG AND FARTHER
NE TOWARD ERI.

OUTLOOK...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSRA AT TIMES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM REMAINS NEAR THE AREA. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR
TUESDAY AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE BIG STORY THOUGH WILL BE THE
CONTINUED CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS AND CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE.
UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF THE LAKE AND 850MB TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS WILL PROVIDE MORE THAN ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT A WATERSPOUT CHANCE THROUGH SATURDAY. LIKEWISE...SHOULD BE
UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO MIX DOWN SCA TYPE WINDS FROM THIS EVENING ONWARD.
WILL KEEP MENTION OF WATERSPOUTS IN THE FORECAST AND START THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AT 10PM TONIGHT AND RUN IT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
WINDS AND WAVES SO FAR ARE BELOW CRITERIA BUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH TONIGHT...THINK THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
YIELD 3-5 OR 4-6 FT WAVES BY DAYBREAK.

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RELAX A BIT SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT ANOTHER TROUGH
WILL CROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY. HARD TO SAY IF WINDS WILL GET BACK TO
SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY BUT FOR NOW I THINK THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A
BREAK SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS PICK BACK UP EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE BEHIND THE TROUGH BY
MONDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...REL
AVIATION...REL
MARINE...LEINS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
923 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

OHZ003-007>012-089-PAZ001-081100-
LUCAS-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-
ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-
923 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OHZ006-013-014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-PAZ002-003-081100-
WOOD-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-
PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-
MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
923 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-081100-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
923 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. AS THIS COOL AIR MOVES OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF
LAKE ERIE...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR WATERSPOUTS TO
DEVELOP.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
535 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

OHZ011>014-089-072345-
CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLEVELAND...MENTOR...CHARDON...
JEFFERSON...ASHTABULA
535 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION
FROM LAKE ERIE. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE INLAND IN
LAKE COUNTY FROM MENTOR TO PERRY. THE EDGES OF THE LINE WILL ALSO
AFFECT EXTREME EASTERN CUYAHOGA COUNTY AND WESTERN ASHTABULA COUNTY.
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN MOVE INLAND INTO GEAUGA AND THE
WESTERN HALF OF ASHTABULA COUNTY.

THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO
NEAR 50 MPH AND HAIL AS THEY MOVE INLAND. AS ALWAYS...DANGEROUS
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.

BE SURE TO MOVE INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS TO PROTECT YOURSELF
FROM THE DANGERS OF THUNDERSTORMS.

LOMBARDY