Hail and Damaging Winds in Ohio, August 4 to 5, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1111 PM EDT MON AUG 4 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL FLATTEN TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
INTENSE DERECHO PRODUCING WIDESPREAD DMG WINDS RAPIDLY ADVANCING
SOUTHEAST ACRS NRN INDIANA ATTM. NEW SVR TSTM WATCH #808 HAS JUST
BEEN ISSUED TO ENCOMPASS THE MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 INCLUDING THE CITIES OF COLUMBUS AND
DAYTON. MESOANALYSIS INDCG WELL DEFINED LLJ FEEDING PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO FUEL ONGOING CONVECTION...AND EXPECT THAT TO PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THETA-E RIDGE AND NICE AXIS OF MOISTURE
CONV CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM NW INDIANA SOUTHEAST INTO WEST CNTRL
OH...WITH DERECHO LIKELY TO FOLLOW THAT PATH OVER NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
WHILE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT NEARLY AS MOIST OR UNSTABLE ACRS FCST AREA
AS POINTS TO NORTH/WEST...LLJ AND FORWARD PROPAGATION ALONE SHOULD
SUSTAIN DMG WIND CONCERNS INTO NW 1/2 FCST AREA THRU 06Z. ADDL SCT
CONVECTION INVOF CMH METRO APPEARS TO BE RUNNING ALONG LO LVL CONV
BNDRY.

UPDATED FCST TO ADD MENTION OF SVR WX AND INCLUSION OF NEW WATCH.
STILL FEEL TSTM COMPLEX WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS PUNCH AS IT
PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST ACRS FCST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO A LES FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT ADDL WATCHES WOULD BE
NEEDED DOWNSTREAM OF THE CURRENT WATCH. WILL ADDRESS THAT AFT
MIDNIGHT BASED ON FURTHER EVOLUTION OF DERECHO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT A ROUND OF CONVECTION TO BE ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND
INDIANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING SHEAR IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL FAVOR SCATTERED
SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY IF WE GET ENOUGH
SUN DURING THE DAY AND DESTABILIZE.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A QUICK END TO PRECIP CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. GFS IS
QUITE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE NAM WITH THE FRONT...BUT TRENDED
TOWARD FASTER NAM ESPECIALLY WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED
COLD POOL LIKELY TO ENHANCE ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG EASTERN
CANADA/NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH
OUR AREA CONTINUING UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES WILL ROTATE DOWN THROUGH THE TROUGH...BUT OUR FA WILL
GENERALLY  REMAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BETTER FORCING. WILL THEREFORE
JUST HANG ON TO SOME LOW POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND THEN TRY TO KEEP THE REST OF THE LONG TERM DRY AT THIS
POINT. WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST AND NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NATIONS MID SECTION OF THE NATION WITH A
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THIS HIGH. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE EVENING WITH SOME
RESIDUAL MID/HI LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS.  INSTBY IS THE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OVER NIGHT. CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE MID MS VALLEY
WL LKLY DROP INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO LATE TNGT. HAVE INDICATED
THUNDER AT ALL BUT THE FAR SRN TAF SITES LATE TNGT.

AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO OVER 10
KNOTS AFTER 13Z ON TUESDAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS PSBL.
MODERATE INSTBY DEVELOPS TUESDAY AFTN...SO AFTER THE EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. FOR
NOW HAVE MENTIONED VCTS AND CB.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...HAWBLITZEL
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...AR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1057 PM EDT MON AUG 4 2008

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ056-065-070>074-077>082-
088-060300-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-LICKING-FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-
WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-
PIKE-SCIOTO-
1057 PM EDT MON AUG 4 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>055-060>064-060300-
HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-
CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-
FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
1057 PM EDT MON AUG 4 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 808 IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY
OF OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED OVERNIGHT.

RYAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1124 PM EDT MON AUG 4 2008

OHZ064-073-074-050400-
ROSS OH-HOCKING OH-PICKAWAY OH-
1124 PM EDT MON AUG 4 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN PICKAWAY...
SOUTHWESTERN HOCKING AND EASTERN ROSS COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT
EDT...

AT 1122 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM LOCATED NEAR HALLSVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...
LAURELVILLE...ADELPHI...MOORESVILLE AND LONDONDERRY.