Wildfire in New Jersey, August 28 to 31, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
940 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TO NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, THE REMNANTS OF WHAT ONCE WAS TROPICAL STORM FAY
WILL BE MAINLY FORCED TO OUR WEST DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH
HOLDING STRONG. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR
AREA ON SATURDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN FOR SUNDAY AND
LINGERING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF PRECIP TO THE WEST STRUGGLING
TO MOVE EWD AND OVERCOME DRY AIR WHICH HAS BEEN ENTRENCHED OVER THE
REGION.  AS A RESULT, IT SEEMS THAT OUR POPS WERE OVERDONE AND WILL
BE SCALING BACK AREA-WIDE.  CERTAINLY, SOME RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT OVER WESTERN SECTIONS, BUT EVEN IN THOSE LOCATIONS, QPF WILL BE
LIGHT.  THE FURTHER E YOU GO, THE LESS CHANCE YOU HAVE OF SEEING ANY
PRECIP AT ALL. THE MET AND FWC POPS SEEM BETTER, EVEN THOUGH THE GFS
HAD THE BETTER INITIALIZATION.  NEVERTHELESS, THE GFS SEEMS TO BE
CONTINUING ITS HABIT OF OVERDOING POPS AND AREAL EXTENT OF PRECIP.

OTHERWISE, THE SKY IS PRETTY MUCH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY OVER THE
AREA AND THE REST OF THE FCST LOOKS REASONABLE.

THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMM AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY. THIS IS ALSO FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SREF
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION. BTW THE GFS INITIALIZATION OF GUSTAV LOOKED
BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMM.

WE WILL GO WITH A GFS AND ETA MOS COMPROMISE WRT MAX TEMPS. ONE IT
PRESERVES CONTINUITY FROM THE PREV FCST, SECOND IT TAKES INTO
ACCOUNT ANY THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS THAT WILL GIVE TEMPS THE
OPPORTUNITY TO BOUNCE UPWARD QUICKLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CONFLICTING INFO TONIGHT AS THE TROF WEAKENS TO OUR W, BUT DEEPER
MOISTURE ARRIVES. IT ALL CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARD A GENERALLY
CLOUDY NIGHT. BUT WITH THAT CONFLICTED INFO, WE HAVE OPTED TO KEEP
POPS AS CHANCE. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE SOUTHERN PART
OF OUR CWA CLOSEST TO THE PRESENT ONGOING MSTR CHANNEL. BELIEVE IT
WOULD BE BETTER TO GO WITH THE HIGHER GUIDANCE MINS FOR TNGT AS PER
THE CLOUDS. IRONICALLY THE DRIER ETA MOS HAS THE HIGHER MIN TEMPS.

AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON FRIDAY, LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO PASS S OF OUR CWA. MOISTURE IS STILL PLENTIFUL, ALTHOUGH OTHER
THAN A FCST TO BE WEAKENING SHORT WAVE, A STRONG TRIGGERING
MECHANISM IS NOT THERE. WE WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT FCST TREND OF A
LOW POP RISK. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED AWAY FROM THUNDER POTENTIAL
AS THERE IS NO LONGER ANY FCST INSTABILITY AT THE SFC OR ALOFT, SO
WE DID REMOVE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER. THE AIR MASS IS OF SIMILAR
WARMTH AND EXPECT SIMILAR MAX TEMPS ALG THE LINES OF ANOTHER GFS AND
ETA MOS COMPROMISE. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE SHORT WAVE MOVING
EAST AND LOW PRES MOVING OFFSHORE, WE HAVE REDUCED POP CHANCES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS TIME FRAME IS EXPECTED TO MAINLY START WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE
THEN BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS OUR REGION.
AS WITH ANY LONGER TERM FORECAST, THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES THAT
CROP UP MAINLY WITH THE DETAILS.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO AN INCREASE IN AMPLITUDE
WITH A PROGRESSIVE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. RIDGING THEN BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND EASTERN CANADA.  HPC USED A DOMINANT ECMWF SOLUTION FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY, THEN BLENDED IN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON THE ABOVE, A COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO SLIDE ACROSS OUR
AREA ON SATURDAY AND THIS FEATURE LOOKS RELATIVELY WEAK ATTM.
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY BE AROUND TO
START SATURDAY DUE TO POSSIBLE INCREASING/POOLING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE THEN SETTLES IN FOR SUNDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH LABOR
DAY. THIS HIGH THOUGH MAY BE BREAKING DOWN LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, DEPENDING ON WHERE THE ANTICIPATED CLOSED LOW BECOMES
SITUATED. IT APPEARS THE ONLY CHC FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON
SATURDAY AS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. FOR NOW, WE WILL LEAVE THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD DRY AS
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON IF ANY IMPACT WILL BE FELT IN OUR CWA
RELATED TO THE CLOSED LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST/EAST. WE DID NOT DEVIATE
MUCH FROM HPC GUIDANCE, OTHER THAN TO REMOVE THE SLIGHT CHC POPS
FOR WEDNESDAY, INTRODUCE SOME MOSGUIDE MAINLY FOR WINDS, AND MAKE
SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS.

THAT IS ALL FOR NOW. THANKS TO THE SURROUNDING OFFICES/HPC FOR THE
COLLABORATION. HAVE A GOOD ONE

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MOISTURE LEFTOVERS FROM FAY WILL BE MAKING ITS CLOSEST APPROACH
TO OUR AREA TODAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA STILL TRYING TO
HOLD BACK THE RAINS. THE GFS MODEL IS A BIT MORE GENEROUS WITH THE
CLOUDS AND PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA, OFFERING CHC POPS WHILE THE WRF
IS DRIER. I DID NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP IN THE 06Z TAFS, BUT IF THE
GFS SOLUTION LOOKS MORE LIKE REALITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THE 12Z
TAFS MAY MENTION SOME VCSH. IT IS NOT EXPECTED THAT ANY RAIN THAT
MAY OCCUR WILL LOWER CIGS OR VSBYS SIGNIFICANTLY THOUGH.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES BOTH DAYS. THERE IS ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW THAT ANY
LOWER CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY BE FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AGAIN THE
GFS IS MORE PESSIMISTIC THOUGH WITH LOWER CONDITIONS EARLIER FRI.
SUN AND BEYOND LOOKS FAIR AT THIS POINT.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE ON THE WATERS TODAY WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING
AND THE WAVE ACTION RUNNING 3 OR 4 FT TODAY. THE WINDS AND WAVES
WILL DECREASE LATER TONIGHT AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND PULLS OFF TO THE
EAST. ON SAT, WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO S AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE SAT
OR EARLY SUN. WINDS AND SEAS IN THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL KICK UP TO NEAR SCA CONDITIONS, BUT SINCE THE AIR IS NOT
TOO COOL, JUST CAPPED WAVES AT 4 FT FOR NOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
IT HAS BEEN A COOLER THAN AVERAGE AUGUST ACROSS THE CWA SO FAR AS
ALL OUR CLIMATE SITES ARE 2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE /EXCEPT
GEORGETOWN/. PHILADELPHIA HAS ONLY REACHED 90 DEGREES OR HIGHER ONCE
THIS MONTH /TO DATE/. THE LAST TIME THIS OCCURRED WAS BACK IN 1996.
THE LAST TIME NO 90-DEGREE DAYS OCCURRED IN AUGUST IN PHILADELPHIA
WAS BACK IN 1984. OVERALL THIS AUGUST IN PHILADELPHIA HAS A CHANCE
OF BEING THE COOLEST AUGUST SINCE 2000 (AVERAGE TEMP WAS 74.0
DEGREES). ITS ALSO WILL BE THE FIRST TIME SINCE 1994 THAT AUGUST
WILL BE COOLER THAN JUNE IN PHILADELPHIA. PRIOR TO THAT, IT WAS
1976.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...GORSE/HPC
AVIATION...OHARA
MARINE...OHARA
CLIMATE...GORSE & GIGI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
417 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>023-
027-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071-290915-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-
SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-
CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
417 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
DELAWARE...NORTHERN DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST
MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST
NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NJZ014-024>026-290915-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
COASTAL OCEAN-
417 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

ANZ430-431-450>455-290915-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
417 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.