Hail in Nebraska, June 7, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
255 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
    THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERS IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND IN NORTHEAST AND WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THEM AND BACK NORTHWESTWARD
TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA THROUGH IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SCATTERED CUMULUS
DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AND EASTERN WYOMING. SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATED A 23G/KG PLUS MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
THE RADAR WIND PROFILERS SHOWED A NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY WHICH MAY
PULL THE MOISTURE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NETWORK AND RADAR WIND PROFILERS AND
6.7 MICRON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE JET STREAM FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL WYOMING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THE
6.7 MICRON IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
FROM ALBERTA DOWN THROUGH IDAHO TO SOUTHEAST NEVADA.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
    THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA TONIGHT AS THE NEW MEXICO SURFACE LOW MAKES ITS WAY
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA. WITH SOME HELP
FROM AN UPPER TROUGH...ELEVATED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BRING
MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO WESTERN AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE 310K SURFACE MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS
INDICATE THE STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION TO BE
EAST OF AINSWORTH AND BROKEN BOW. THE MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE
EVEN FARTHER EAST THAN THAT. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT EXCESSIVE RUNOFF MAY OCCUR WITH AS LITTLE AS 1.25
INCH OF RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE ELKHORN DRAINAGE...SO WE WILL KEEP
THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS IT
IS.
    SOME RAIN MAY PERSIST IN THE NORTH SUNDAY...SO WE WILL KEEP
SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
    AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING...A TRAJECTORY DEVELOPS FROM THE
TEXAS GULF COAST TO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL HAVE ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE BY EARLY TUESDAY RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE ACROSS KANSAS...WESTERN
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THE
THETA-E GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER 2000J/KG. AS A RESULT...
THERE IS ABUNDANT ENERGY AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AS THE
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP HAVE POTENTIAL TO BE VERY
STRONG...SEVERE EVEN...FIRST IN THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE
EAST WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA.
&&

.AVIATION...
    AT 19Z FEW CLOUDS EXTENDED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED WELL SOUTHEAST INTO
KANSAS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS RIDGING EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS CLOUDS
DEVELOP EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND LAPSE RATES INCREASE WITH THE
HEATING OF THE DAY. DRIER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL LEAD TO HIGH
BASED CONVECTION FORMING INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLE THIS EVENING
THEN AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTHEAST THE STORMS MOVING EAST
TOWARD THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING. THE THREAT
FOR STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS IS EXPECTED TO END
BEYOND MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP INTO THE SOUTHWEST
AFTER 09Z SUNDAY THAT COULD BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AT KLBF BETWEEN 11
TO 15Z. BEYOND 15Z VFR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.
&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NEZ006-007-009-010-028-029...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT.
&&

SPRINGER/KECK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
306 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2008

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-080615-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
306 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2008 /206 PM MDT SAT JUN 7 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
THE MAIN THREAT AREA WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM LYNCH IN BOYD
COUNTY... TO HYANNIS IN GRANT COUNTY...TO IMPERIAL IN CHASE COUNTY
AND WAUNETA IN HAYES COUNTY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING AS A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST. THUNDERSTORMS THAT
INITIALLY FORM ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE MOVING INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY EAST OF THE
PANHANDLE WITH A FEW STORMS EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE WHILE
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE LARGE HAIL ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
ARE POSSIBLE. AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA RECENT RAINS HAVE LEAD TO NEAR SATURATION WHERE
INCREASED RUNOFF IS LIKELY WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUED FOR
KEYA PAHA...BOYD...ROCK...HOLT...AND WHEELER COUNTIES THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE OUTLOOK
AREA NEARLY EVERYDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL SHIFT OUT
TO TUESDAY WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEVELOPS INTO THE NORTHWEST
COAST AND PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. LATER MODELS
WILL PROVIDE BETTER DETAIL TO THE TRACK AND POTENTIAL FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT BY MID WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT EAST OF THE
PANHANDLE.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

KECK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
949 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0949 PM     HAIL             8 ESE ERICSON           41.74N 98.53W
06/07/2008  E0.75 INCH       GREELEY            NE   PUBLIC

&&

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