Tornado and Hail in Missouri, March 27 to 28, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
655 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...WEST TO EAST ORIENTED STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY
CUTTING THE CWA IN HALF AT THIS HOUR. THIS BOUNDARY SEPARATES
TEMPS IN THE MID 40S NORTH FROM TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S LOWER 60S
SOUTH. 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGING ON THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL AS A
BOUNDARY NEAR THE 925MB LEVEL...WHICH IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM OSCEOLA TO HARTVILLE TO
WEST PLAINS. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO VEER WITH TIME AND
FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN CWA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TODAY...PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 00Z MODEL OUTPUT IN
SLOWLY SHIFTING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. MOST PROBABLE
SCENARIO IS THE FRONT REACHING A NEVADA TO COLUMBIA LINE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. POPS AND TEMPS ONCE AGAIN A CHALLENGE FOR TODAY.
BULK OF THE EXPECTED PRECIP TODAY WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THE AIRMASS IS CAPPED
AND ANYONE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN CAPPED FOR MOST OF
THE DAY. HAVE ONLY TWEAKED TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA WITH THIS AREA ONCE AGAIN ABOVE AVERAGE. TEMPS IN CENTRAL MO
QUITE TRICKY. HAVE TRENDED INTO THE LOW/MID 60S HERE...BUT THERE
IS A RISK TO BE A BIT WARMER DEPENDING ON HOW FAST PRECIP MOVES
OUT AND THE BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE NORTH. POP WISE...WILL LIKELY
MAKE A LAST MINUTE DECISION BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...BUT WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS IN CENTRAL MO...WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE CLOSEST
ALL DAY.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AN UPPER WAVE WILL EXIT NEBRASKA AND SLIDE
EAST SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. THE UPPER FORCING AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW WILL RESULT IN AN GRADUAL ACCELERATION OF THE SURFACE FRONT TO
THE SOUTH. CAPPING SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT. TSRA ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL MAINLY BE ELEVATED AS THE BEST FORCING WILL BE ALONG OR
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. 500MB TEMPS IN THE -16C TO -18C RANGE WILL
FOSTER HAIL DEVELOPMENT FROM THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS...
PARTICULARLY DURING THE EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS
RISK IN THE MORNING HWO. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE SOUTH OF
THE AREA FRIDAY AND HAVE MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS OVER THE EASTERN
OZARKS.

RATHER COOL DAY EXPECTED FRIDAY AS 925/850MB TEMPS IN THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS ENTER THE AREA. WITH LOW CLOUDS LINGERING
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY A 10F DIURNAL RANGE IS ABOUT ALL WE
SHOULD MUSTER.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A TENUOUS...BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION
IS EXPECTED. RAINFALL SHOULD SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA FRIDAY
EVENING AND A DRY...COOL FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED. AM NOT AS
CONFIDENT THAT SATURDAY WILL BE COMPLETELY DRY AS THE COLD FRONT
STALLS TO OUR SOUTH AND BEGINS TO TRACK NORTHWARD AGAIN AS A WARM
FRONT. THE NAM REMAINS DRY...BUT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE TRENDING
WETTER. HAVE HELD VERY CLOSE TO MAV/MEX FOR TEMPS AND POPS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...I HATE TO BE THE BEARER OF
BAD NEWS...BUT IT LOOKS WET FOR THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. THE
00Z GFS FIVE WAVE CHART ONCE AGAIN SHOWS AN INCREASING TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION
ENTRENCHED IN MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE 00Z SUITE OF
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ALL SUPPORT A BOUNDARY LOITERING ABOUT THE
REGION WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ADVECTION GIVEN DEEP SOUTH AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FETCH ALOFT. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MOST PERIODS. THE ENSEMBLE
AVERAGE POP IS GIVING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR ACCUMULATING RAINFALL IN
EACH PERIOD AND SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO INCREASE POPS
FURTHER IF MODEL/ENSEMBLE TRENDS CONTINUE. THE GFS SUFFERS FROM
GRID SCALE FEEDBACK...MAKING ITS QPF RATHER TAINTED...BUT
INDICATIONS FROM THE ECMWF AND THE HPC FIVE DAY FORECAST INDICATE
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. WILL REISSUE THE ESF
HIGHLIGHTING HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POTENTIAL.

GAGAN

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 00Z WITH SURFACE WINDS TURNING FROM
SOUTH TO THE SOUTHWEST. AROUND 00Z...THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF
THE AERODROMES WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. PREDOMINATELY VFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT KJLN AND KSGF UNTIL THE FRONT RETURNS
WITH MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 00Z.

ANGLE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
600 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-281015-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
600 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS THIS
  MORNING.

  HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE
  OUTLOOK AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

 SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
 CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
 FROM WARSAW IN BENTON COUNTY...TO HARTVILLE IN WRIGHT COUNTY AND
 GAINESVILLE IN OZARK COUNTY.

 ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA FROM
 LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
 THE REGION.

  DISCUSSION:

 A WARM FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL SLOWLY MOVE
 NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
 THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT THIS MORNING ACROSS
 PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. WHILE MOST STORMS
 WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...AN ISOLATED STORM WILL BE
 CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

 THE WARM FRONT WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT LATE THIS
 AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ALONG AND
 AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
 THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE OZARKS THIS
 EVENING. GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES AND SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR
 ALOFT...A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO THE
 SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
 AND ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS
 ACTIVITY SLOWLY MOVES TO THE SOUTH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

 SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING AS THE COLD
 FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF MISSOURI. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
 EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

 ANOTHER SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
 REGION BY SUNDAY. AN AIRMASS LOADED WITH MOISTURE WILL INTERACT
 WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM TO PRODUCE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
 THUNDERSTORMS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE
 EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONT IS STILL UNCERTAIN...THE POTENTIAL
 EXISTS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLOODING SOMEWHERE EITHER
 WITHIN OR NEAR THE OUTLOOK AREA.

 EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND OTHER LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES ARE URGED
 TO CLOSELY MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND DISCUSSIONS ISSUED BY THE
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
 EPISODE OF FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAGAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
612 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

MOZ098-271145-
SHANNON MO-
612 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SHANNON COUNTY UNTIL
645 AM CDT...

AT 608 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WINONA...OR 18 MILES EAST OF MOUNTAIN
VIEW...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

ANGLE