Tornadoes and Flash Flooding in Missouri, December 27, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
736 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SUPERCELLS
AND TORNADOES ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.  THE COMBINATION OF LOW LCL
HEIGHTS...STRONG WIND SHEAR...AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
WILL PROVIDE A PRIME ENVIRONMENT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND TORNADOES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS AN AREA OF CLEARING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES COULD BE DIURNALLY IMPACTED BY THIS CLEARING...ONLY TO
INCREASE INSTABILITY EVEN FURTHER.  12Z RAOB MEASURED 773J/KG OF ML
CAPE...WITH 120J/KG OF 0-3KM CAPE.  SURFACE WINDS REMAIN BACKED AT
THE SURFACE...CREATING 0-1KM HELICITIES OF AROUND 400.  NEARLY ALL
INGREDIENTS EXIST ACROSS SW MISSOURI FOR TORNADIC STORMS.  ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

CRAMER

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHICH IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS THOUGHT. AS A
RESULT HEIGHT FALLS HAVE NOT MOVED INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI
WHICH HAS LEFT THE AREA CAPPED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI EAST OF HIGHWAY 65. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 AND SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED AND SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.

FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS WHERE THE CAP
WEAKENED...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED WITH SEVERAL BECOMING SEVERE.
BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN IOWA
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THIS AREA
UNDER TORNADO WARNINGS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH
EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MARCHES
EAST.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE
EAST TODAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE ON THE DOOR STEP
OF THE WESTERN CWA AROUND SUNRISE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA...HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD WEAKEN THE CAP...ALLOWING
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH STORMS ALSO
EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE
AREA...AND SHOULD EXIT THE EASTERN CWA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM AND MOIST
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND TEMPERATURES WELL IN THE 60S
EXPECTED. ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA TO MAKE ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE WITH THE ACTIVITY THE DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS STORM SYSTEM...SO TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA...HOWEVER THE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CWA SOUTHWARD WHERE THE BETTER TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL
RESIDE. THE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION IS VERY MOIST FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...SO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH ONE TO
THREE INCHES STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY FILTER INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA TOMORROW EVENING...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THE FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH THAT ALL THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST BEFORE THE
TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE FRONT.

A COOLER AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO START THE WORK
WEEK AS A ZONAL PATTERN WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. THE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER THIS
TROUGH SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

WISE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z KJLN/KSGF TAFS...MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WITH THIS TAF
PACKAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. CURRENTLY COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO EXTREME
EASTERN KANSAS EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS...WITH A
LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THIS MORNING...WITH THEM
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE JOPLIN AREA BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z AND INTO
SPRINGFIELD BETWEEN 14 AND 16Z. VERY STRONG WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT...WITH GUST AROUND 50KTS
POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE FRONT AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY. BEHIND THE
FRONT GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
326 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-280930-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
326 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  FLOODING...TORNADOES...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND HAIL.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
  KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AHEAD OF AN
  APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND
  OUT OF THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA LATE THIS
  AFTERNOON.

  DISCUSSION:

  THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVEMENT WAS SLOWER THAN EXPECTED FRIDAY
  INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...A CAPPING INVERSION REMAINED
  OVER THE AREA...AND SUPPRESSED STORM DEVELOPMENT. ELEVATED
  CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL
  MISSOURI EAST OF HIGHWAY 65. THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
  THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH THIS ACTIVITY
  NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS.

  THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
  EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN IOWA SOUTHWEST TO TEXAS. THUNDERSTORMS
  ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES
  EAST...WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO BE JUST OFF TO THE WEST OF THE
  OUTLOOK AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
  CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST THIS MORNING...COOLING IN THE MID LEVELS
  OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BREAK THE CAP. AS THIS OCCURS
  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT BETWEEN
  6 AM AND 9 AM...THEN CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT
  PUSHES EAST. DUE TO VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT...STORMS THAT
  DEVELOP WILL LIKELY TAKE ON A SUPER-CELLULAR CHARACTER THEN
  EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS OF STORMS OR A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS AS
  THEY PUSH TO THE EAST. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
  POSSIBLE INCLUDING...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND
  HEAVY RAINFALL. THE BEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WILL OCCUR
  ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI SOUTHWARD...WHERE AN INCREASED POTENTIAL
  FOR TORNADOES WILL OCCUR.

  OF CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT AND TRAINING OF
  STORMS...LEADING TO HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH SUB SURFACE SOILS
  REMAINING FROZEN...RAPID RUNOFF MAKES FLOODING A CONCERN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

  NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER FAR SOUTHWEST
  MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THEN
  EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

WISE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
836 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0834 AM     HEAVY RAIN       ICONIUM                 38.11N  93.54W
12/27/2008  E1.00 INCH       ST. CLAIR          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRING AT TIME OF REPORT.

&&

WISE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
852 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0849 AM     FLASH FLOOD      NEOSHO                  36.87N  94.37W
12/27/2008                   NEWTON             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LOW WATER ROADS STARTING TO FLOOD IN TOWN

&&

LD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
856 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0853 AM     FLASH FLOOD      NEOSHO                  36.87N 94.37W
12/27/2008                   NEWTON             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            ROADS CLOSED IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PARTS OF NEOSHO.

&&

SRUNNELS