Hail and Damaging Winds in Minnesota, July 7, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1156 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2008

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 336 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2008/

FORECAST CONCERN NEAR TERM IS TWO-FOLD. CONVECTIVE CHANCES MOVING
IN THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INTO THIS
EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES MOVING
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND THE OTHER MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. RADAR TRENDS HAS WHATEVER IS LEFT OF NEBRASKA
WEATHER MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MN AFTER 11Z. 00Z NAM AND NOW 06Z
NAM...CONTINUES THIS TREND AS WELL. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS
DEVELOPING INTO SC MN THIS MORNING. NAM MERGES THESE TOW WAVES
OVER MN AND THE RESULT SHOULD CONTINUE TSRA THREAT THROUGH THE
DAY. WILL TRY AND TIME ACTIVITY INTO NORTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS/PCPN AROUND
INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE SOME 3K J/KG CAPE
DEVELOPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CWA AHEAD OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT DEVELOPS AS TROUGH APPROACHES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AS WELL...SO COULD
SEE SOME SUPERCELLS DEVELOP...BEFORE MORE LINEAR PATTERN TO
CONVECTION DEVELOPS. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES INTO WC WI
THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSES INTO THIS AREA AS
WELL. WILL MENTION HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FAR EASTERN CWA FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL LAST EVENING YIELDED
SOME 2 INCH PLUS AMOUNTS INTO WC WI AS WELL. HAVE TRIMMED MAV
GUIDANCE TEMPS SOMEWHAT. BANKING ON SOME SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST AREA...SO WILL GO IN BETWEEN MET/MAV GUIDANCE NUMBERS
FOR TODAY.

ACTIVITY WANES EASTERN AREAS INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THEN WILL GO DRY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS. WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPS AGAIN LATER WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT INTO CENTRAL MN DURING
THIS PERIOD. CAPPING DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHWEST AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. 00Z GFS AND NOW 00Z ECMWF IS TRENDING THIS
WAY AS WELL. WILL INTRODUCE SOME POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WED
NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. LATER FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO RETRACE PCPN
CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND AS GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO SOUTHERN MN/IA REGION SAT INTO MONDAY. THIS SHOULD
FOCUS POPS/WX INTO SOUTHERN REGION OF FA.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

SCT SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA IN BROAD WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NW ND INTO E SD.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD CANOPY OVER THE AREA WITH THESE SHOWERS HAS KEPT
DEEP INSTABILITY OVER IA THROUGH THE MORNING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE INCREASING OVER IA INTO SE MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI
THIS AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY OVER IA LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN MN. EXPECT
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP OVER SE MN AND WEST
CENTRAL WI AFTER 21Z. MORE ISOLD THUNDER EXPECTED WESTERN TAF
SITES. EXPECT MVFR CEILING CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS AND
POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS VCNTY KEAU. MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 03Z.
SOME CHANCE OF SCT-BKN CLOUDS 040 OVER NE CWA BEHIND TROUGH.
SOME RISK OF MVFR VSBYS IN FOG EASTERN AREAS IN WEAK WIND
GRADIENT BEHIND INITIAL TROUGH OVERNIGHT. HAVE RESTRICTED THIS TO
KSTC AND KEAU FOR NOW. OTHERWISE CU DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED IN COOL
ADVECTION PATTERN...MAINLY EASTERN SITES TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

DWE/JPR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
108 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2008

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
081100-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
108 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...PARTS
OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. THE AREA UNDER THE
GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
MANKATO...TO RED WING...TO LADYSMITH. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS
POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA AS WELL. NORTH OF THIS LINE...AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.

ALONG WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE...WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOUND EAST OF A LINE FROM
NEAR CAMBRIDGE...TO MINNESOTA LAKE.

MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 10
PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FROM LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA BY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...GENERATING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.