Hail in Michigan, May 30, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
727 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2008

.DISCUSSION...EARLY UPDATE TO REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST.
BEST INSTABILITY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS HAS BEEN ACROSS
EASTERN WISCONSIN OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CU FIELD IS ON THE
PATHETIC SIDE. THEREFORE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN DO
NOT THINK THUNDER WILL BE AN ISSUE. MODELS DO DEVELOP SCATTERED
SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL STEER THE FORECAST IN THAT
DIRECTION.

SULLIVAN

&&

.AVIATION...SKIES HAVE PARTIALLY CLEARED ACROSS THE APN AND TVC.
MVFR CIGS REMAIN AT PLN AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION
LATE THIS EVENING BRINGING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE TERMINAL
SITES. BEHIND THE TROUGH...LOWERING MVFR CIGS ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2008/

DISCUSSION...SFC LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN OVER NRN MINNESOTA/
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. SFC WARM FRONT HAS BEEN MAKING IT/S MOVE
NORTHWARD...ROUGHLY RUNNING FROM WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND NOSING
DOWN INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AS OF 20Z. SHOWER ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN
INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA...APPARENTLY
TIED TO SECONDARY LOW LEVEL THETA-E SURGE ALONG THE WARM FRONT INTO
THE REGION. HOWEVER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CWA REMAINS ANEMIC
AND STILL NO THUNDER TO BE HAD.

TONIGHT...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DROP ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE BROAD SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN.
WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM STILL INCHING INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LOOKING TO BRING AN END TO THE CURRENT
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE S/SE COUNTIES BY 6 PM AS WELL AS SOME LATE
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. MEANWHILE UPSTREAM...MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND
HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE NOW PRESSING
INTO THE REGION. DRYING/COOLING ALOFT IS PRODUCING SPOTTY THUNDER
FROM CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN DOWN INTO GREEN BAY AND NE WISCONSIN.
BUT BEEFIER CONVECTION STILL RESIDES ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO INDIANA
AND AT THIS JUNCTURE LOOKING TO STAY THAT WAY TONIGHT.

NONETHELESS...STILL WATCHING THE AREA UPSTREAM ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN WISCONSIN FOR LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...
ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY THATS BEEN SITTING THERE ALL
DAY. SBCAPE VALUES ON THE /WARM/ SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY RUNNING UP
AROUND 1000 J/KG ALTHOUGH THIS AREA APPEARS SOMEWHAT CAPPED AT THE
MOMENT. APPROACHING MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS MAY YET CHANGE THAT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALLOWING SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP BY EARLY
EVENING. IF SO...SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY YET ADVECT THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING. WILL SEE HOW IT GOES...BUT HAVE KEPT CHANCY POPS GOING IN
THE FORECAST TO COVER THIS IDEA.

SEVERE WEATHER...BELT OF STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES RUNNING IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS THIS
EVENING...CERTAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG STORMS. BUT GIVEN THE
LACKLUSTER INSTABILITY OVER THE CWA...AND CURRENT CAPPED ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS THE LAKE...DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THINGS WILL COME TOGETHER FOR
ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK
REFLECTS THIS IDEA...AS THEY HAVE REMOVED ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN FROM A
SLIGHT RISK. WILL REFLECT THIS IDEA IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ADAM

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...SIGNS OF AT LEAST SOME
SUSTAINABLE EARLY SUMMER WARMTH (A LITTLE EARLY FOR THAT:) DURING
THE EXTENDED AS RATHER PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW PREVENTS
ANY SIGNIFICANT GREAT LAKES TROUGH AMPLIFICATION.
ACTUALLY...LOOKING EVEN FARTHER OUT...THINGS COULD GET RATHER
TOASTY VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SIGNS THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN MAY ATTEMPT TO TRANSITION TO ONE MORE FAMILIAR
TO THE WARM SEASON...WITH DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINMENT OF SOUTHEAST
CONUS RIDGING AND SUBSEQUENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
LAKES REGION. OTHER GOOD NEWS (OF COURSE...DEPENDING ON ONES POINT
OF VIEW) IS PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES...FIRST OWNING TO NORTHERN
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE AREA AND THEN POSSIBLE ESTABLISHMENT OF
SUSTAINED GULF MOISTURE FEED LATER NEXT WEEK. THUS...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS REMAIN CENTER STAGE AS FORECAST
CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NOW...AFTER ALL THIS TALK ABOUT COMING WARMER WEATHER...STILL HAVE
TO DEAL WITH ONE MORE SLUG OF COOL AIR DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY...WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT OF EASTERN ONTARIO
SHORTWAVE LEADING THE CHARGE. INHERITED GRIDS FEATURED A CHANCE OF
RAINS SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THIS
THINKING AS WAVE AND SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH INTERACT WITH LINGERING
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...DEVELOPMENT OF MID LEVEL WARM
TONGUE SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS LIGHT AND SCATTERED. DRYING POKING IN
FROM THE WEST SHOULD END THE SHOWER THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER
MOST WESTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES A STRUGGLE BETWEEN CAA...CLOUD
COVER...AND STRENGTH OF TYPICAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RESPONSE. BASED
OFF RECENT HISTORY AND UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES STUCK IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CUT
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE BOARD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...ENDING THE SHOWER
THREAT. ANOTHER SUBTLE TROUGH DOES MANAGE TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY...BUT WITH MAINTENANCE OF MID LEVEL WARM TONGUE AND LACK OF
MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH A DRY FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A SLOW
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

BEING SUMMER AND NORTHERN MICHIGAN (NOT EXACTLY A CONVECTIVE HOT
SPOT)...LOOKED FOR REASONS TO REMOVE AS MUCH OF THE LOW CHANCE POPS
AS POSSIBLE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK (DID MANAGE TO REMOVE
TUESDAYS MENTION). UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS REMAIN INSISTENT OF A MID
LEVEL WAVE SLICING THROUGH/NEAR THE REGION DURING THE
MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER NORTHERN PLAINS WAVE AND
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE FEED.
HOWEVER...FEEL ALL PERIODS MENTIONED WILL NOT HAVE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...BUT WITH RECENT INSERTION INTO THE GRIDS AND NO HARD
EVIDENCE TO REMOVE THE THREAT...FELT BEST COURSE OF ACTION WAS TO
RUN WITH INHERITED FORECAST AND WAIT FOR SOME SEMBLANCE OF MODEL
CONSISTENCY ON EXACT TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURES. WARMING LOOKS TO
KICK INTO FULL GEAR AS WAA SURGES 850MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID
TEENS TO NEAR 20C BY LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IF
12Z ECMWF COMES TO FRUITION...SHOWING 850MB TEMPERATURES REACHING
23C ON FRIDAY WITH DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW...THAN HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM TOPPING 80 DEGREES (CONSERVATIVELY)...WHICH
WOULD BE A FIRST FOR MOST LOCATIONS THIS SPRING/EARLY SUMMER SEASON.

MSB

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1000 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2008

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
311200-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
100 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE SUPERIOR...EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
BETWEEN 10 PM AND 2 AM. THESE STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH
WINDS GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY TIME FRAME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

AJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1110 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1108 PM     HAIL             BOYNE FALLS             45.17N 84.90W
05/30/2008  M0.25 INCH       CHARLEVOIX         MI   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

SWR