Hail in Kentucky, May 9, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
616 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

AN UPPER LEVEL SW/V IS WORKING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
A WEAK SFC TROUGH IS ALSO EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEASTERN OH DOWN INTO
CENTRAL AND WESTERN KY. FURTHER TO THE NW...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WAS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A SW/V ROTATING THROUGH THE
CANADIAN PLAINS AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON/JAMES BAY
REGION. CONVECTION SO FAR HAS BEEN LIMITED...WITH SHRA OVER THE
NORTHERN CWA...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I 64 ATTM. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION WAS OVER CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF IL AND IN.
OTHER ISOLATED CONVECTION WAS OVER WESTERN TN. SKIES HAVE BEEN
GRADUALLY CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA.

THE UPPER LEVEL SW/V WORKING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND ITS
ASSOCIATED SFC SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. SFC
AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FOR SAT. AT
THE SAME TIME...A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
PLAINS STATES...GRADUALLY CLOSING OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW. THE RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EAST IN THE RATHER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...WITH THE UPPER
LOW WORKING INTO THE OH VALLEY SAT NIGHT AND GRADUALLY REACHING THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS PER RECENT GFS RUNS OR THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
PER THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE ECMWF.

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL SHRA SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER SW/V APPROACHES THE AREA AND
ERODES THE CAP THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO
BE LIMITED DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND EVEN WHEN THE CAP ERODES...THE LAPSE
RATES WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANY MORE THAN 0 TO -3C LI AND CAPE
MUCH OVER 500 J/KG. HOWEVER...DYNAMICS WILL BE BEST CLOSER TO THE SW/V
TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH...COMBINED WITH SOME LEFT EXIT REGION JET
SUPPORT. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA AND CHANCE
FURTHER SOUTH...WHERE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE BETTER GIVEN RECENT
HEATING...BUT FORCING IS A BIT WEAKER OTHER THAN THE SFC TROUGH PASSAGE.
AS FOR TEMPS...STAYED CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE WHICH WAS IN LINE WITH MOST
RECENT MOS NUMBERS.

DEEPER MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE AREA WITH THE DEPARTING SW/V...BUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MUCH OF THE NIGHT IF NOT LINGER INTO EARLY
ON SAT AM. HELD ONTO CLOUD COVER THE LONGEST IN THE SE INTO SAT.
OPTED TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG FOR STRATUS BUILDDOWN LATER TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE BULK OF SAT...ESPECIALLY
BY 18Z AND AFTER AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY MIXES OUT. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN STREAMING TOWARD THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE DAY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE SAT NIGHT AND EARLY ON
SUN. THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES AS TO HOW MUCH SFC HEATING CAN OCCUR
BEFORE THE SFC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS ALSO MAKES
TEMPS PROBLEMATIC...BUT OPTED TO KEEP THE PERSISTENCE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH WAS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE RANGE OF MOS
GUIDANCE TEMPS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN
THE NAM. THE NAM ALSO HAS MORE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AS THE FRONT PASSES
AND MORE INSTABILITY AS WELL AS MORE MID LEVEL DRYING. THE BIGGEST
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE SE OF THE CWA ON SUN...BUT SOME
SEVERE WEATHER CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND THE ONGOING HWO HAS THIS
COVERED WELL. WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS PERSISTING INTO SUN NIGHT.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST STILL FEATURES POTENT WEATHER
SYSTEMS ON MONDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY
WILL BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY TO MIDMORNING. THE FORECAST
FOR MONDAY WILL FEATURE ONLY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE...AS SUPPORTED BY BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING.UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL COMBINE WITH RESIDUAL SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY MORNING. THE PRIMARY CHANGE MADE
TO THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE WEATHER SYSTEMS ON MONDAY AND MIDWEEK. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SUPPORTED THIS SO IT SEEMED LIKE A REASONABLE CHANGE
TO MAKE. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS WAS THE
EXTENT AND AMOUNT OF QPF THEY WERE BOTH PRODUCING. THE ECMWF SEEMED
TO BE OVERDOING QPF AND THE INTENSITY OF THE TWO WEATHERS SYSTEMS IN
QUESTION..SO THE GFS SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED. MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE WARM AND DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. ANOTHER STRONG AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE INITIAL ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROUGH AS LOW
PRESSURE BECOMES ORGANIZED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND BEGINS TO
MOVE EASTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AND RATHER DEEP SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE THE
FIRST DROPS OF RAIN AS SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...FORM AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. KEPT PRECIP
PROBABILITIES IN THE CHANCE RANGE ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AS MOISTURE
STILL APPEARS A BIT LIMITED EARLY IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ALONG THE WARM FRONT. AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE...ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE MODELS FEATURED ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT TO WARRANT CONTINUED MENTION OF AT
LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GRIDS. WENT WITH AREAL COVERAGE
WORDING THIS TIME AROUND AS OPPOSED TO STRICT POPS AS THIS SEEMED
LIKE A MORE PRECISE WAY TO CONVEY THE TYPE OF WEATHER EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM IS STILL FORECAST TO EXIT THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...SO TOOK POPS OF OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
AMONGST THE MODELS AT THIS POINT OF TIME IN THE FORECAST.

FOR TEMPERATURES A STRAIGHT UP BLEND BETWEEN HPC GUIDANCE AND MEXMOS
WAS USED...AS MEXMOS CONTINUES TO COME IN A BIT WARMER THAN HPC
GUIDANCE. IT APPEARS THAT BASED ON WHAT THE GFS MODEL OUTPUT IS
SHOWING...THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN THE HPC TEMP
FORECAST...SO CONTINUED TO GO WARMER THAN HPC FOR THOSE REASONS. A
FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO WINDS AND DEWPOINTS...BUT THOSE
FORECAST ELEMENTS WERE IN DECENT ALREADY...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
REQUIRED.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/...UPDATED

SCT022 VARIABLE BKN OTHERWISE VFR WITH ISOLATED SHRA IN THE AREA.
BEST FORCING IS NORTH OF OUR TAF SITES BUT BEST INSTABILITY IS ACROSS
THE SOUTH WHERE LOZ AND SME HAVE SEEN CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE SFC HEATING HAS MADE THE AIR TURBULENT. IF THE AREA
CAN HOLD OFF TSRA THRU SUNSET WE SHOULD SETTLE DOWN TO JUST CONCERN
ABOUT SOME -DZ AND PATCHY BR. FOG MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD
IN OUR VALLEYS TOWARDS MORNING BUT SHOULD CLEAR TO TOTAL VFR AFTER
SUNRISE AND ALL CLOUDS SCT OUT BY MID DAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM....AR
AVIATION...DUSTY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
423 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-101200-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
423 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...COULD
BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN
THREATS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

WJM/JP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
656 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

KYZ106-107-092330-
JOHNSON-MORGAN-
656 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT EAST CENTRAL MORGAN AND
NORTHWESTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM EDT FRIDAY EVENING...

AT 654 PM EDT...A STORM SPOTTER REPORTED HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
DIMES BETWEEN WEST LIBERTY AND CROCKETT IN MORGAN COUNTY. THIS
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR JEPTHA AT 656 PM...MOVING EAST
AT 21 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR MIMA AROUND 705 PM EDT...RELIEF AROUND 710 PM
EDT...REDBUSH AROUND 715 PM EDT...BARNROCK AROUND 720 PM EDT...
FLATGAP AROUND 725 PM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE
INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD.

ABE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
717 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

KYZ107-109-092345-
JOHNSON-MAGOFFIN-
717 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT JOHNSON AND NORTHERN MAGOFFIN
COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM EDT FRIDAY EVENING...

AT 717 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CISCO...
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR WHEELERSBURG AROUND 720 PM EDT...HARGIS
AROUND 725 PM EDT...OIL SPRINGS AROUND 730 PM EDT...AND PAINTSVILLE
AROUND 740 PM EDT. RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...WITH
RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40
MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD.

ABE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
738 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

KYZ107-119-100015-
JOHNSON-MARTIN-
738 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT EASTERN JOHNSON AND NORTHERN
MARTIN COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM EDT FRIDAY EVENING...

AT 738 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BAKER...MOVING
EAST AT 29 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR HAMMOND AROUND 745 PM EDT...TOMAHAWK AROUND
755 PM EDT...INEZ AROUND 800 PM EDT...ANDY AROUND 805 PM EDT...AND
HODE AROUND 810 PM EDT. RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...WITH
RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40
MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD.

ABE