Tornadoes and Hail in Kansas, May 26 to 27, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
326 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

ONE MORE ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS CONTINUED ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS
THIS MORNING, WITH A WEAK RIPPLE EVIDENT IN THE 500MB TEMP FIELD
AND WV LOOP COMING UP THROUGH WEST TX. A WARM PLUME AT 700MB
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS HAS KEPT THINGS NICELY CAPED SO
FAR. BEST 850MB MOISTURE WAS DOWN OVER OK AND TX AT 12Z, ALTHOUGH
THE SPC MESOANALYSIS HAS SOME 10-15 C DEWPOINTS OVER OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES FOR 19Z. THE SFC FRONT HAS MOVED MORE SLOWLY THAN
ANTICIPATED, HANGING AROUND THE TQK-GCK AREA THE LAST FEW HOURS. A
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION OVER EASTERN KANSAS
WAS LOCATED NEAR HYS-PTT DOWN INTO NORTHEAST OK. RICH DEWPOINT HAD
COME UP INTO OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA, WITH VALUES IN THE 70S ALL THE
WAY UP TO GBD. THE DRYLINE HAS NOT BEEN WELL DEFINED SO FAR, BUT
SOME CONVECTION AS ALREADY STARTED ALONG THE MOIST AXIS IN THE
EASTERN TX PANHANDLE.

SHORT FUSE COMPOSITE HAS CALCULATED CAPE VALUES OF OVER 4500 J/KG
JUST SOUTH OF P28, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME MIXING THAT NEEDS
TO BE DONE TO REMOVE THE CAP. FURTHER WEST, THE CAP IS WEAKER, BUT
CAPE VALUES ARE LESS, DEWPOINTS ARE NOT AS HIGH, AND SHEAR IS
MINIMAL. THINK THAT OUR BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WILL BE FURTHER
EAST, BUT CANT RULE OUT SOMETHING POPPING UP AND PUTTING OUT
QUARTER SIZED HAIL, SO WILL KEEP SEVERE MENTION IN THE WEST SOUTH
OF THE FRONT. BEST CHANCES FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE EAST OF A
ASHLAND TO DODGE CITY TO LACROSSE LINE WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE
WILL BE. NEAR THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, AS WELL AS NEAR THE FRONT,
THERE COULD BE SOME TORNADOES POSSIBLE AS SHEAR IS MAXIMIZED
LOCALLY. BEST LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES ARE WELL BEHIND THE FRONT
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN EASTERN KS, WHERE AIR WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY
STABLE. HOWEVER, AROUND P28-PTT-GBD AND ABOUT ONE COUNTY ROW WEST
OF THERE, THERE COULD BE ENOUGH SHEAR TO GET THINGS ROTATING.
TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT, AND WILL CONTINUE THE BEST
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE EAST. STORMS WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS THEN FORM AN MCS AND MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA
TOWARDS MORNING.

BY TOMORROW, THE TROUGH OVER NV/UT TODAY WILL HAVE EJECTED A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE OUT INTO NEB AND SD. THIS SHOULD HELP PUSH
THE COLD FRONT THE REST OF THE WAY THROUGH THE CWA. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE VERY STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH 850MB TEMPS
GETTING DOWN AROUND 3 C IN OUR NORTH BY AFTERNOON. WITH THE FRONT
NOT MOVING THROUGH OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL MID MORNING,
THERE COULD ACTUALLY BE AN NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE WITH
FALLING TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
STAY SOCKED IN WITH STRATUS AND TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A FAIRLY DECENT
SATURATED LAYER BELOW 800MB, WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOW POPS WE
HAVE GOING FOR DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RA.

RIDGING WILL START BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS STATES BY TUESDAY
NIGHT, WITH THE SFC HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS
VALLEY. WINDS WILL STAY TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WITH UPSLOPE.
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO STICK AROUND, WITH SOME DRIZZLE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. THE HIGH WILL START TO MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY, WITH WINDS SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. STRATUS
SHOULD HANG AROUND OUR EASTERN COUNTIES FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
DAY, NOT MIXING OUT UNTIL AFTERNOON. LOWERED HIGHS A BIT IN THAT
AREA, AND MAY HAVE TO GO EVEN LOWER IF IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRATUS
WILL NOT MIX OUT AT ALL. WESTERN COUNTIES SHOULD SEE SOME SUN AND
GET UP INTO THE 70S.

DAYS 3-7...

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FEATURES THROUGH 168 HRS. OUR FIRST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE
ON THURSDAY ALONG THE DRYLINE(AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH).
THIS TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
ON FRIDAY, WITH THE FRONT DANGLING BACK INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS BY
AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD FIRE ALONG THIS FRONT BUT THE
BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE WELL NE.

AFTER THIS, THE EC/GFS ADVERTISE A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS
AS OPPOSED TO A AMPLIFIED ONE. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW
UP THE HIGH PLAINS AND FRONT RANGE. THIS IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN
FOR STORM CLUSTERS TO DEVELOP OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA
IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN DRIFT INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE
EVENING. SO AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SAT-SUN.

THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A LARGE TROUGH IN THE WEST FOR DAYS 8-10.
THIS MEANS ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS, AND PERHAPS STORMS IF THE FRONT
IS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. THE DETAILS ARE TOO UNCLEAR THIS FAR OUT.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO STARTING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING
PERHAPS THROUGH JUNE 6.

.AVIATION...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL 3 TAF SITES THIS EVENING.
THESE COULD BE LOCALLY SEVERE. LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
SOUTH TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. BUT THIS FRONT WILL BE
A VERY SLOW MOVER. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DROP TO 1000FT BY
MORNING AND STAY THERE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  55  63  46  73 /  50  30  20   0
GCK  54  56  45  74 /  50  30  20   0
EHA  56  63  47  78 /  30  20  20   0
LBL  58  63  46  76 /  30  20  20   0
HYS  53  57  44  68 /  90  30  20   0
P28  66  77  49  71 /  90  30  20   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN26/24/24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1217 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

KSZ031-045-046-064-076>078-086-087-271730-
ELLIS-NESS-RUSH-HODGEMAN-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-SEWARD-MEADE-
1217 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 3 PM. SOME OF THESE
MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY
EVENING AND ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY FRIDAY EVENING. SOME
OF THESE ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 3 PM.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

KSZ065-066-079>081-088>090-271730-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-PRATT-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
1217 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 3 PM WITH VERY LARGE HAIL
AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED AFTER 3 PM.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

KSZ030-043-044-061>063-074-075-084-085-271730-
TREGO-SCOTT-LANE-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-STANTON-GRANT-MORTON-
STEVENS-
1217 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2008 /1117 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUT THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EVENINGS.
SOME OF THESE COULD BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC