Tornadoes and Hail in Kansas, June 7, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
251 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT 09/12Z...SURFACE FRONT
HAS STALLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.  FRONT AT 18Z WAS
FROM NEAR ALBION TO NEAR KEARNEY TO NORTH OF HILL CITY.  THE FRONT
IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS RETREATED NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY.
ATMOSPHERE IS STILL CAPPED AS PER 18Z SOUNDING FROM KOAX...BUT AS
AFTERNOON HEATING CONTINUES AND TEMPS GET INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO
LOWER 90S...THIS COULD BE OVER COME.  SO EXPECT A FEW STORMS TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. SURFACE
WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
THIS IS HELPING TO SHIFT THE BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FARTHER EAST.
SO CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY BE LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN
DRIER AIR IS PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...THIS HAS SET UP A
SEMI-DRY LINE GENERALLY ALONG US HIGHWAY 81. WILL ADD SOME SMALL
POPS TO THIS AREA AS SOME STORMS COULD GET GOING THERE FIRST.

BETTER DYNAMICS COME TONIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
ALONG WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OVERRIDING THE SURFACE FRONT. AGREE
WITH SPC THINKING OF A LINEAR MCS POSSIBLE ALONG FRONT TONIGHT AND
MOVING EAST.  THIS WILL GIVE A CHANCE FOR MAINLY A WIND AND HAIL
EVENT TO THE NEBRASKA PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD HELP
TO PUSH THE SURFACE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH BY SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN
AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS
STORMS LINE UP ALONG THE FRONT AND TRAIN NORTHEASTERLY.

UPPER WAVE TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. SHOULD BE A
BIT OF A DRY PERIOD IN THE MORNING AFTER OVERNIGHT STORMS...BUT
STORMS SHOULD FIRE ALONG FRONT IN NORTHERN KANSAS BY AFTERNOON
GIVEN GOOD UPPER SUPPORT.  SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO INTERSTATE 70 WHERE FRONT AND BETTER
MOISTURE WILL BE.  TO THE NORTH...A DRY EVENING AND NIGHT IS
EXPECTED.  TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH CLOUDS AND
GENERALLY A NORTH WIND BEHIND THE FRONT. READINGS IN THE 70S ARE
EXPECTED.

STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS
AS SURFACE BOUNDARY DOES NOT MOVE OVERLY FAST AND LOW LEVEL JET
CONTINUES TO RACE OVER THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...12Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
REMAIN THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LATEST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PUSHING MCS SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA
BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARRIVE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST CWA. A WEAK NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN H25 JET STREAK
PUSHING IN ALOFT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. THINK
THE FORCING ALOFT COMBINED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WILL INITIATE CONVECTION LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...WITH
THINGS QUITE POSSIBLY STAYING CAPPED FURTHER SOUTHEAST. KEPT SOME
SMALL POPS IN FOR THE WHOLE CWA...BUT THE FOCUS REALLY LOOKS TO BE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AT THIS POINT. WITH CAPES PROGGED TO REACH 1000 TO
MAYBE 1500 J/KG IN THIS AREA AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 TO 50
KTS...COULD SEE A FEW STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. THE LLJ
THEN PICKS UP MONDAY NIGHT. THE NOSE OF THE JET IS FOCUSED WELL
NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT WITH DECENT THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS THE CWA
ALONG THE JET AXIS...WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GOING OVERNIGHT.

KEPT SOME SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT REAL HIGH. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT
WITH GOOD MOISTURE/WARM AIR RETURN NORTHWARD ON SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH UNDER A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MODELS
ALSO HINTING AT PERHAPS A WEAK PERTURBATION MOVING ACROSS IN THE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE MAY VERY WELL STAY
CAPPED PER WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND NO SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER EVIDENT AT
THIS TIME. THE LLJ KICKS IN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SYSTEM...WITH NOSE OF LLJ AGAIN FOCUSED TO THE NORTHEAST BUT
SUFFICIENT THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS THE CWA TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT ACROSS THE AREA. BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE LOW DEEPENING AND
CONSOLIDATING OVER EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AND SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA.
HEIGHT FALLS/STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT WITH THE EJECTING TROUGH WILL
HELP TO ERODE THE CAP...ALLOWING CONVECTION TO FIRE ALTHOUGH WARMER
MID-LEVEL TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAY BE MORE DIFFICULT TO
OVERCOME. ONCE CONVECTION INITIATES...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOK TO
BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. A STRONG LLJ CRANKS
UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND WITH STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE POSSIBLE
ALONG H85 FRONTAL ZONE WITH 50-60 KT LLJ FROM THE
SOUTH...UNFORTUNATELY HEAVY RAIN MAY BECOME A CONCERN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ONCE AGAIN BY THIS TIME.

THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA THURSDAY
MORNING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...HELPING TO SCOUR
OUT SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GOING WITH UPPER FORCING COMING ACROSS AND
FRONT NEARBY. THE FRONT HANGS UP TO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
LLJ ACTING WITH H85 FRONT IN THE VICINITY MAY BRING SOME NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN CWA. SMALL PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA WITH TAIL END OF UPPER FORCING
COMING ACROSS...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE PRETTY LIMITED BY THIS TIME
WITH FRONT SHOVED FARTHER SOUTHEAST. HAVE KEPT THINGS DRY FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THERE LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST A BRIEF BREAK IN
THE ACTION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY SETTLES IN USHERING IN
DRIER AIR. HOWEVER...THE HIGH THEN LOOKS TO SHIFT EAST ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO BEGIN FILTERING BACK NORTH BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF. COUPLE OF CONCERNS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH
WINDS AND THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATER TODAY. COLD FRONT WHICH HAS
BEEN MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE GRI
TERMINAL SOON...CAUSING A SHIFT IN WINDS. AREA OF LOWER LEVEL
STRATUS OVER EASTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA EXPECTED TO LIFT DURING
THE MORNING HOURS..LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO STALL OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT INITIAL DEVELOPMENT TO BE OFF TO
THE SOUTH...AND NOT IMPACT THE TERMINAL UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR KSZ006-007.

&&

KISNER/KB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
245 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2008

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
081200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
245 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS AND WIND GUSTS OF MORE THAN 70 MPH ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING.

INITIAL DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE LIKELY SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM YORK NEBRASKA TO OSBORNE KANSAS. THESE STORMS SHOULD PUSH
EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.  ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...LIKELY AFTER 6 PM. THEN STORMS WILL SPREAD
OVER THE REST OF THE AREA TONIGHT.

FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE ENTIRE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

FLASH FLOODING AND PERHAPS AREAL AND RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A POSSIBILITY ON SUNDAY MORNING.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  THESE STORMS WILL BRING THE
THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND HEAVY RAINS.

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THESE WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY BETWEEN
4 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

KISNER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
424 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2008

KSZ007-072200-
JEWELL-
424 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR...

  SOUTHEASTERN JEWELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS

AT 422 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR JEWELL...OR 13 MILES NORTH OF BELOIT...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 38 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  FORMOSO BY 440 PM CDT

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
437 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2008

KSZ019-072200-
MITCHELL-
437 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR...

  NORTHWESTERN MITCHELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS

AT 435 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GLEN ELDER...OR 13 MILES WEST OF BELOIT...
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 31 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RURAL NORTHERN MITCHELL COUNTY BY 450 PM CDT

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.