Hail and Damaging Wind in Kansas, June 13, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
301 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

A STALLED OUT COLD FRONT BETWEEN DODGE CITY AND WICHITA WILL
SLOWLY MOVE BACK WEST AS PRESSURES FALL IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM THIS EVENING IN THE EAST FA WITH
BE BEST MOISTURE RETURN. A STRONG AND SLOWLY MOVING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES WILL SEND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
INTO KANSAS LATER TONIGHT FROM THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. AS
PRESSURES FALL IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF THIS WAVE MOISTURE
WILL BE PULLED BACK UPSLOPE INTO EASTERN COLORADO. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE EAST
WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE. WILL CONTINUE CURRENT GRIDS WITH 20 POPS
WEST AND BUMP UP TO 80 PERCENT AT MEDICINE LODGE. WITH MID LEVEL
COOLING AND GOOD SHEAR SHOULD HAVE SEVERAL LARGE HAIL REPORTS.
ALSO WILL KEEP MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE MEDICINE
LODGE AREA WITH THE WRF GOING NUTS WITH QPF. THE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD END BY AROUND 7 AM FRIDAY IN THE MEDICINE LODGE AREA WITH
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
LOW TO MID 50S EXCEPT WARMER LOW TO MID 60S OVER THE MEDICINE
LODGE AREA.

FOR FRIDAY LOOK FOR A VERY PLEASANT DAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S LOOK GOOD COMPARED TO
GUIDANCE. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE VERY NICE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT SOUTH BY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM 53 TO 57.

ON SATURDAY DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH A WARM FRONT AND
TEMPERATURES RISING TO AROUND 90 WITH WARMER MID 90S WEST. THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY WEAK CAP BY MAX HEATING SO WILL ADD A
20 POP FOR A LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM.

DAYS 3-7...

IT APPEARS THAT A TYPICAL JUNE PATTERN WILL BE EVOLVING DURING THE
EXTENDED AFTER THE BIG GYRATING UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
MOVES OUT.  THE FLOW FLATTENS AND WILL ALLOW A SET UP FOR ALMOST
NIGHTLY TSRA CHANCES, ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST TO MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK.  LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL SET UP FARTHER TO THE WEST WHICH
WILL ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO BE TRANSPORTED INTO EASTERN COLORADO AND
PERHAPS TO THE FRONT RANGE.  MINOR S/WV TROUGHS IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE PERIODICALLY MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES BUT
TIMING WILL BE DIFFICULT.  FOR NOW ONLY INTRODUCED SMALL POPS BUT
THESE CAN BE ADJUSTED AS THE TIME NEARS.  IM PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST ONE WIDESPREAD EVENT NEXT WEEK BUT
DETERMINING WHEN THAT MIGHT BE WOULD BE A FUTILE ATTEMPT.

.AVIATION...

KEPT CB CHANCES IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT.  THERE SHOULD BE A SECOND
WIND SHIFT/FRONT ARRIVE AROUND MIDNIGHT (THE FIRST BEING IN
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  86  55  92 /  50   0   0  20
GCK  52  85  54  92 /  30   0   0  20
EHA  52  86  56  94 /  20   0   0   0
LBL  54  86  55  94 /  30   0   0  20
HYS  53  84  55  90 /  30   0   0  20
P28  64  85  57  90 /  80  30   0  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN06/07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
504 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-131015-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
504 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2008 /404 AM MDT THU JUN 12 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOPING ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL PUT
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL IN THE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AGAIN. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE AFTER 6 PM CDT ACROSS MAINLY THE AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 283
AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. SUPERCELLS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY STORM MODE THROUGH THE MID EVENING
HOURS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.
THERE IS THE RISK FOR TORNADOES ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTH AND EAST OF A COLDWATER TO PRATT LINE. VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
LATE TONIGHT AS MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK...THIS FRONT MAY ALLOW FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WHICH MAY SPREAD INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE TIMING OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SMALLER SCALE
SYSTEMS ARE STILL UNCLEAR, HOWEVER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED FOR SEVERE WEATHER
REPORTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

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