Heavy Rain in Kansas, August 8, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
650 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2008

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION...

A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND UPSLOPE FLOW HAD RESULTED IN IFR CIGS
AND AREAS OF FOG AT DDC AND GCK THIS MORNING. CIGS HAVE BEEN
VARYING BY MORE THAN ONE CATAGORY THE PAST HOUR SO HAVE THEREFORE
BASED 12Z TAFS ON LOWEST CONDITION OBSERVED JUST PRIOR TO ISSUANCE
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY 15Z. AFTER
THIS SOUNDINGS SHOWING CLOUDY CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY BUT CIGS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VRF CATEGORY.
MAY ALSO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2008/

DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION.

WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
STILL IN CONTROL ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS WITH VERY LITTLE
MOVEMENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. A +90KT JET IS EXITING OUT OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
AND STREAMING NORTHEAST JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. OTHERWISE, A
FAIRLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. A POOL
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWEST INTO NORTH TEXAS AND MUCH OF OKLAHOMA WITH DEWPOINTS AT
H85 NEAR 15C. A WEAK BUT PERSISTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STRETCHING
FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EAST THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT INDICATING THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INCHING
GRADUALLY EASTWARD DURING THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, WILL
BEGIN PUSHING ASHORE BY LATE SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL S/WAVE
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO CYCLE DOWN THE RIDGE THROUGH A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. AT THE SURFACE, A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN COLORADO BY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL TAKE AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS
MORNING AND GRADUALLY BRING IT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE DAY MOVES
ALONG. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH H85 DEWPOINTS WELL UP INTO THE MID
TEENS(C). THIS SETUP WILL AGAIN BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIP TODAY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ALTHOUGH, THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH SLIDES FURTHER SOUTHEAST AND
THE LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. CURRENT POPS SEEM TO
HAVE A HANDLE ON THIS SO DONT PLAN MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
FOR TODAY. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN SATURDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO
BORDER. THE GFS, NAM, AND UKMET ALL SUGGEST ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL S/WAVE TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT SATURDAY WHICH MAY AGAIN SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MAY BUMP UP POPS A BIT NORTHEAST WITH LATEST MODEL RUNS
INDICATING HIGHER QPF.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT HIGHS TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY,
ESPECIALLY WITH INCREASED CLOUDINESS. TEMPERATURES AT H85 WILL
CHANGE LITTLE FROM YESTERDAY WITH 18C TO 22C VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA. WE MAY SEE A FEW MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS NORTHEAST WHICH
COULD ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB UP INTO THE UPPER 80S(F). OTHERWISE,
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY. A SLIGHT WARM UP IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE CWA FROM A
STRENGTHENING LEE SIDE TROUGH. TEMPERATURES AT H85 WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW 20S(C) EAST TO THE UPPER 20S(C) ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER. MAY TWEAK TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT BOTH DAYS.

DAYS 3-7...

00Z MODEL RUNS ALONG WITH THE CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES ALL
CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH AN UPPER TROF MOVING MOVE OUT OF THE ERN
PACIFIC AND CROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EXPECT OUR FLOW TO BEGIN TO BACK
MORE TO THE  WEST AND AS OUR MID LVL BAROCLINIC ZONE STARTS TO GET
SHIFTED E/NE OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD REDUCE OUR CHANCES OF PCPN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY BEGIN TO BRING BACK MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN KANSAS. BOTH THE GFS AND CANADIAN
PROBABILITY CHARTS ALSO SEEM TO AGREE WITH THIS TREND TAKING HIGH
PROBS OVER THE WEEKEND AND LOWERING THEM SIGNIFICANTLY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT WILL BE LEAVING THE LOW/NIL POPS IN FOR MONDAY
AND EARLY TUESDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING TOWARDS A
SLOW WARMING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  85  65  86  66 /  30  30  40  40
GCK  83  64  85  66 /  40  30  40  40
EHA  83  65  90  64 /  70  50  30  30
LBL  83  65  89  66 /  60  30  30  30
HYS  85  64  83  65 /  10  40  40  40
P28  87  68  86  70 /  20  30  40  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN32/18/18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
356 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2008

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-091000-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
356 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2008 /256 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN TODAY...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM NESS CITY TO COLDWATER.
ANY DEVELOPING STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE...HOWEVER
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINS WHICH MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST EACH DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

32