Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, August 5, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
336 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...
SURFACE FRONT WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF DDC ABOUT 30 MILES AS OF 3 PM.
CONVECTION WAS ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MOST OF THE
PRECIP THIS EVENING SHOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER,
A FEW CELLS COULD PROPAGATE NORTH OF THE FRONT AS WELL. ELEVATED
STORMS MAY FIRE LATER TONIGHT IN CENTRAL KS. THE MODELS ALL MOVE
THE FRONT BACK NORTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IF ELEVATED CONVECTION
PERSISTS IN CENTRAL KS, THEN THE FRONT MAY NOT MAKE IT SO FAR NORTH
ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, MAXES WERE RAISED FROM DDC SW.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE SE INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SERVE TO REINFORCE THE
BOUNDARY. STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AGAIN
WED AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO WED NIGHT. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY
KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA CLOUDY ON THURSDAY, ALONG WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS/STORMS. IT COULD BE COOLER THAN FORECASTED IF IT STAYS CLOUDY

STRONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW IS THE MAIN CONCERN THAT COULD CAUSE
THE ABOVE LINE OF THINKING TO GO AWRY. FOR EXAMPLE, TODAY TURNED
OUT TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN FORECASTED IN DODGE CITY SINCE THE
FRONT IS ABOUT 80 MILES FURTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED. THIS IN TURN
WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION (STORMS FORMING
FURTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON).

DAYS 3-7...

STRONG RIDGING WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO COLORADO AND
NEW MEXICO. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE GFS AND LAST NIGHTS ECMWF SHOW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY BEHIND A STRONG WAVE
AND COOL FRONT MOVING DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THIS COULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER ON FRIDAY.

BY THIS WEEKEND THE GFS IS SHOWING ANOTHER SLUG OF ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS COULD BE THE FEATURE THAT IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY WESTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. THE GFS AND ECMWF MORE OR LESS SHOW THIS
FEATURE COMING OUT INTO THE PLAINS LATE SATURDAY BUT HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH THE TIMING OF THIS THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. AT ANY
RATE THE CHANCE POPS THAT ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE LOOK GOOD.

THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE HAS FLATTENED
OUT CONSIDERABLY WITH A WEST NORTHWEST COMPONENT TO THE UPPER FLOW
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AT LEAST BE FAIRLY
SEASONAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANY CONVECTIVE EVENTS
WOULD HAVE A BEARING ON TEMPERATURES.

.AVIATION...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SITUATED ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER THIS EVENING.  THIS FRONT MAY MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH
LATER TONIGHT.  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BUT SHOULD BE DISSIPATING AFTER DARK. WILL COVER THIS
WITH A CB MENTION IN THE TAFS.

THE FRONT MAY BEGIN TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. TO THE NORTH
OF THE FRONT MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS COULD REDEVELOP AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD OCCUR AS FAR
SOUTH AS GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY BUT WILL BE MORE LIKELY AROUND
HAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70 100  66  87 /  20  20  40  40
GCK  69  97  65  86 /   0  30  40  40
EHA  68 100  66  87 /  20   0  30  40
LBL  70 100  66  86 /  30   0  20  40
HYS  69  89  66  86 /  30  40  50  40
P28  74 100  71  87 /  40   0   0  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN24/02

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
931 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-061445-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
931 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008 /831 AM MDT TUE AUG 5 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ALMOST ANYWHERE BUT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.
THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN
THE WAKEENEY TO HAYS AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN INTO MONDAY.
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE WAKEENEY AND HAYS AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

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