Hail and Damaging Wind in Kansas, August 29 to 30, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
145 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...
ELEVATED SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LVL TROF WAS
MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO AND INTO SW KS EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON. BASED ON 18Z VERIFICATION LOOKS LIKE BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS WERE DOING A DECENT JOB WITH THIS FEATURE AND MOVED IT ACROSS
THE BULK OF OUR CWA THROUGH 00Z. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
TRACK AND COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH
THE DAY ON TRACK AND DURATION AS NEEDED. BY EVENING THE BETTER
FORCING AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE APPEARS TO BE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE BORDER SO INITIAL PLAN FOR TONIGHT IS TO RETAIN MENTION OF
SMALL POPS NEAR THE OK BORDER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER 00Z.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WHICH WAS LOCATED IN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BOTH MODELS PROG THIS BOUNDARY IN OUR ERN CWA. DWPTS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH 00Z CAPES
IN THIS AREA AROUND 1000J/KG. BOTH MODELS ALSO SHOW A 5H VORT LOBE
MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF OK INTO KS LATE IN THE DAY SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL POPS IN OUR SE CWA. MAY EVEN SPREAD THIS
AREA A LITTLE FURTHER NORTHWARD LATE SAT AND EARLY SAT NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA AS
PRESSURE CONTINUE TO FALL ALONG THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY IT
APPEARS AT THIS TIME WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER ON SUNDAY.
HAVE RETAINED WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH BUT AFTERNOON WINDS MAY BE
CLOSER TO 30 THAN 20 SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND STILL LOOK ON TRACK BASED ON MODELS
SOUNDINGS. MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON SUNDAY BUT AT THIS
TIME WILL LEAVE HIGHS AS IS. DID BUMP UP LOWS SOME BOTH TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTH AND
WEST AND THEN WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL AID IN KEEPING TEMPS UP.

DAYS 3-7...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN THE EASTERN CONUS
TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT INDICATING THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
CONTINUING ITS SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK MONDAY UNTIL IT BEGINS TO EJECT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DRAG INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATE
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THE ISSUE
THEN BECOMES WHAT EFFECT GUSTAV WILL HAVE ON OUR CWA IF MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE AS THEY ARE. THE LATEST GFS AND CANADIAN MODEL RUNS
DIVERGE FROM THE ECMWF(HIRES) AND KEEP MUCH OF THE PRECIP WELL TO
OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST. WHEREAS, THE ECMWF(HIRES) BRINGS THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM UP A BIT QUICKER AND FURTHER TO THE WEST RIGHT ALONG
OUR EASTERN BORDER. REGARDLESS, TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH
WHERE GUSTAV WILL TRACK BUT ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIP TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN A BIT HIGHER IN THE EAST. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
MENTION OF POPS AT THIS POINT WITH A BUMP UP TO LOW END CHANCE POPS
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/ WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT
MOVING IN.

EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A
STRENGTHENING LOW ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER WILL INFLUENCE FAIRLY
STRONG SOUTHERLIES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT H85 WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S(C) ACROSS THE CWA
MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT BUMP UP ON TUESDAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
OFF JUST A BIT WEDNESDAY ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD IN
WAKE OF A FROPA AND POSSIBLE INCREASED CLOUDINESS FROM REMNANTS OF
GUSTAV MOVING UP FROM THE GULF. PLAN TO MAKE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS
TO TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL INTO EASTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING
WHICH WILL BRING AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS WITH SOME AREAS OF PATCHY
FOG DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TOWARDS DAYBREAK...MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF KHYS AND KGCK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  66  87  69  90 /   0  10  10  20
GCK  66  87  67  89 /   0   0   0  20
EHA  65  85  66  85 /   0   0   0  20
LBL  67  87  67  86 /  20   0   0  20
HYS  64  88  71  91 /   0  10  10  20
P28  67  88  70  89 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN18/32/32

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
453 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-301000-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
453 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008 /353 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC