High Surf in Hawaii, December 2 to 6, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST TUE DEC 2 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE ISLANDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THIS
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT WEST ACROSS KAUAI DURING THE DAY WITH A DRYING
TREND ELSEWHERE. LOCAL DAYTIME SEA BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME LAND
BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO
AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS AND STRAY SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE
ISLANDS. LIGHT TRADES WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY...AND INCREASE A
LITTLE ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY NORTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND LEAVING THE SMALLER
ISLANDS IN A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. A PLUME OF
MOISTURE HAS BEEN DRAWN UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH SHOWERS AFFECTING
AREAS FROM WEST MAUI TO KAUAI. THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TRANSIENT WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITIES AND DROPPED LESS THAN .25 OF AN INCH
IN ANY ONE LOCATION. FOR TODAY...EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BE
CONCENTRATED MAINLY ACROSS MOLOKAI AND OAHU THIS MORNING...THEN
SHIFTING WESTWARD TO KAUAI AND A DRYING TREND ACROSS THE OTHER
SMALLER ISLANDS. THIS WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AS
THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH.

THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND THE ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
A CONTINUED SLOW NORTHWARD DRIFT. THE LIGHT FLOW WILL BRING DAYTIME
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE OVER THE INTERIORS OF THE ISLANDS BRINGING A
FEW MAUKA SHOWERS. THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BE CAPPED...THEREFORE
RAINFALL WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT.

THE RIDGE FINALLY MOVES NORTH OF THE STATE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
ALLOWING THE RETURN OF LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES. THESE WILL BE
SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS THE RIDGE SLIDES SOUTHWARD OVER THE ISLANDS
AND WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.  THE WEAK REMNANTS
OF A COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON THE NORTHWEST KAUAI WATERS IN THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK...BUT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THIS FRONT OR SHEAR
LINE WILL NOT ADVANCE INTO THE ISLANDS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. BUOY DATA
SUGGESTS THAT THE HIGHEST SURF HEIGHTS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER
TODAY...A BIT SLOWER THAN WAVE WATCH MODEL DATA. SWELL HEIGHTS ARE
ALSO RUNNING A BIT LOWER THAN WAVE WATCH DATA...AND THE SURF
FORECAST HAS BEEN REVISED TO REFLECT WAVE HEIGHTS JUST PEAKING AT
LOW END WARNING LEVELS DURING THE DAY AT KAUAI AND THIS AFTERNOON
ON OAHU AND LATE THIS AFTERNOON ON THE OTHER ISLANDS. THE SWELL
WILL THEN GRADUALLY LOWER TO ADVISORY LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY. LATER
ON...AFTER THE CURRENT SWELL PASSES...WE WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER
ANOTHER HIGH SURF WARNING FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES. THE NEXT
SWELL FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY IS PROGGED TO BE A BIT MORE
WESTERLY...FROM 290/300 DEGREES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 AM WED FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF
NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU AND MOLOKAI...AND FOR NORTH FACING SHORES OF MAUI.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM WED FOR WEST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG
ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM WED FOR WATERS EXPOSED TO LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL.

&&

BRENCHLEY