Drought in Hawaii, December 1 to 31, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
845 PM HST SUN NOV 30 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE STATE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCAL
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES ACROSS MOST OF THE
STATE EARLY THIS WEEK. THEREFORE...EXPECT AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILDUPS
AND SOME SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO A POSITION NORTH
OF THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
TRADES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK...EAST NORTHEAST TO WEST SOUTHWEST ORIENTED SURFACE RIDGE NOW
SITS ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THIS RIDGE HAS BEEN FORCED SOUTHWARD OVER
THE STATE DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY ABOUT 475 MILES NORTHWEST OF
KAUAI...AND MOVING TOWARD THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 20 MPH. THE
TAIL END OF THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALLOWING THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT TO PASS BY FAR NORTH OF
THE ISLANDS MONDAY NIGHT.

THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP OUR WINDS
RATHER LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
THEREFORE...EXPECT LAND BREEZES TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS. HAVE ALREADY SENT OUT AN
UPDATE TO THE FORECAST EARLIER THIS EVENING. THERE WERE SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE PUNA AND
SOUTH HILO DISTRICTS ON THE BIG ISLAND. IN ADDITION...SOME HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ISLANDS IN THE FORM OF
CIRRUS CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS ARE MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TOWARD US AT UPPER LEVELS DUE TO A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. THE AXIS OF THIS
TROUGH ALOFT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 29N 162W TO 44N 167W TO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW NEAR 48N 173W. THE UPDATE SENT OUT EARLIER ALSO ACCOUNTED
FOR THESE HIGH CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

THE SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY AND
MOST OF TUESDAY. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW THE DIURNAL DAYTIME SEA
BREEZE AND NIGHT TIME LAND BREEZE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY. STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED DUE TO A STRENGTHENING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ABOVE THE STATE. THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH LIMITED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...WILL MINIMIZE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...EXPECT AFTERNOON CLOUD
BUILDUPS AND SOME SHOWERS OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MOST ISLANDS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS OVER
LAND DUE TO LOCAL SEA BREEZES. ALSO...HAZY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING THE VOG
PLUME FROM KILAUEA SETTLES ACROSS MOST OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO A
POSITION JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT TO
MODERATE EASTERLY TRADES...AND INCREASING MOISTURE MOVING BACK
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN FROM THE EAST. THE ONSET OF THE TRADES WILL
REDUCE THE HAZY CONDITIONS OVER MOST AREAS OF THE STATE...EXCEPT FOR
PARTS OF THE LEEWARD BIG ISLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL CONTINUES TO AFFECT MOST OF THE STATE THIS
EVENING. BUOY 51001...OR BUOY ONE...IS NOW REPORTING A SWELL HEIGHT
OF 7 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 14 SECONDS FROM 340 DEGREES...WHILE
CLOSER TO HOME THE WAIMEA BUOY IS SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
OF 8.5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 13 SECONDS FROM 320 DEGREES.
THEREFORE...SURF HEIGHTS ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF MOST
OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS...AND THE WEST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG
ISLAND REMAIN NEAR THEIR RESPECTIVE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
THE SURF IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL HEIGHTS BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WINDWARD
WATERS...AND THE KAUAI AND KAIWI CHANNELS THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO
THE LARGE NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL MAINTAINING COMBINED SEAS OF 10 FEET
OR GREATER.

A LARGE FETCH SOUTHWEST OF A 965 MB LOW NEAR 48N 171W HAS BEEN AIMED
TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS LOW...WHICH CURRENTLY HAS
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...IS DRIFTING SLOWLY
WESTWARD ACCORDING TO THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. THE FETCH AIMED
AT THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL SEND THE THE NEXT LARGE NORTHWEST
SWELL...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SWELL WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE SURF HEIGHTS WELL IN EXCESS OF THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES. IN FACT...THE SWELL
WILL LIKELY PUSH SURF HEIGHTS NEAR THE HIGH SURF WARNING THRESHOLDS
ALONG MOST OF THESE SAME SHORES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH 600 AM HST MONDAY FOR NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES OF KAUAI...NIIHAU...OAHU...MOLOKAI AND MAUI...AND FOR
WEST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 600 AM HST MONDAY FOR THE WATERS
SURROUNDING KAUAI...ALL WINDWARD WATERS AND FOR THE KAUAI AND KAIWI
CHANNELS.

&&

HOUSTON