Rip Current in Guam, March 9, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
600 AM CHST SUN MAR 9 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHEAR LINE HAS LIFTED NORTHWARD TO THE
VICINITY OF ANATAHAN. EVENING SCATTEROMETRY INDICATES AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING WEST OF THE MARIANAS NOW...WHILE WATER
VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND GFS MODEL INITIAL FIELDS REVEAL UPPER-LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE/DIVERGENT WINDS NEARLY OVERHEAD. THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM UPSTREAM FROM THE MARIANAS APPEARS IN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI NEAR 10N. THIS SYSTEM HAS LOST VIRTUALLY ALL
ITS DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE LOOPS HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ENDED
SCATTERED POPS AND THUNDER AS OF SUNRISE TODAY. TRADE DISTURBANCE
NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI IS PROGGED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF GUAM ON
MONDAY. INHERITED FORECAST BRINGS IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON
WEDNESDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH A DEVELOPING TRADE-WIND SURGE AND
STEERING FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY FORECAST
ADJUSTMENTS WITH RESPECT TO THIS FEATURE AT THIS TIME AS IT IS EARLY
AND DIFFICULT TO OBTAIN A HANDLE ON THIS YET TO BE DEVELOPED SYSTEM
YET. OTHERWISE...WILL LEAVE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH NORTH SWELL EVENT WINDING DOWN...ALL EYES TURN TOWARD THE EAST
IN ANTICIPATION OF HOW ROBUST THE TRADE SURGE THE MODELS HAVE LONG
PREDICTED WILL BE. RIGHT NOW...MODELS SEEM TO BE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND RELATED WIND/SWELL WAVES. BEST POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SURF
ON EASTERN EXPOSURES WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WHILE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR COMBINED SEAS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST...ONLY MADE SOME MINOR SHORT TERM
ADJUSTMENTS ON THE TIMING OF SHOWERS. UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS POHNPEI AND KOSRAE INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER SURFACE CONVERGENCE. PERIODS OF
TRADE-WIND SHOWERS WILL MOVE THRU MAJURO TODAY. THEN A TRADE-WIND
DISTURBANCE WILL CREEP UP FROM THE SOUTH AND BRING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AIDED BY A TRADE
SURGE...CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY
SPREAD WESTWARD INTO KOSRAE AND POHNPEI BY TUESDAY.

WW3 WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE IS PREDICTING A BORDERLINE HIGH SURF
SCENARIO ALONG THE EAST FACING REEFS OF KOSRAE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
EVENING. COMPARED WITH LATEST ALTIMETRY...WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 1 TO 2
FEET LOWER. DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BUT WAIT
FOR MORE DATA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

MADE CORRECTION ON SECOND PARAGRAPH

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
FORECAST FOR KOROR CLOSELY FOLLOWS PREVIOUS FORECAST. LATEST IR
SATELLITE REVEALS A LINE OF CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A TRADE-
WIND DISTURBANCE IS APPROACHING YAP FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL GIVE
A PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER YAP STATE FROM THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THEN A WEAK TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR CHUUK WILL
LIKELY AFFECT YAP WITH MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. DELAYED THE ENDING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER OVER CHUUK TO
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION CAN BE SEEN EASTWARD TO EAST OF
160E. THIS LED TO ALSO DELAYING THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT TRADE
DISTURBANCE BY A DAY SINCE IT IS STILL DEVELOPING SOUTH OF MAJURO.

WW3 WAVE MODEL IS HINTING ON A POSSIBLE HIGH SURF EVENT CAUSED BY A
STRONG TRADE-WIND SURGE FROM CHUUK EASTWARD TOWARD MID-WEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

MCELROY/CHAN